Top Wall Street strategists say the stock is on track for another double-digit rally in 2026. According to the 2026 CNBC Market Strategist Survey, Wall Street is confident the bull market will continue for another year, although it won’t be as strong as this year. On average, strategists expect the S&P 500 index to end next year at 7,629, an 11.6% increase from current levels. The goal is a little higher on the median: 7,650 people, or about a 13% increase. Although expectations for 2025 have been blown away, these expected gains are stronger than what strategists expected this year. As the end of the year approaches, the S&P 500 index is on the brink of achieving a “three-peat,” rising 24% in 2023 and 23% in 2024. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 index was up more than 15% in 2025, pushing it to an all-time high despite concerns about tariffs and an AI bubble. This month, the index closed above 6,900 for the first time. “After three years of more than 20% annual gains, the bull market is still alive and well,” Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, wrote in a note earlier this month. “A significant ‘wall of worry’ is a tailwind for the bull market.” While there is no shortage of challenges facing markets over the coming year, many strategists expect stocks to continue to benefit from a favorable backdrop, including a veritable “triple” of positive forces that could help earnings keep up with the doubling. In 2026, the Federal Reserve is expected to further ease monetary policy. The Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to revitalize an economy that has begun to show weakness recently, and businesses could leave tariff concerns in the rearview mirror. There’s also artificial intelligence. Wall Street expects the gains from AI to continue to ripple through the market for years to come as earnings growth begins to catch up with mega-cap valuations. Additionally, investors expect the benefits to extend beyond technology leaders to the real economy. Indeed, some worry that next year’s climb will be even tougher. 2026 is a midterm election year, which is historically a volatile year for markets. The labor market is being monitored for any weaknesses. AI spending and profit growth should justify the high valuation. “Investors are understandably wondering whether we will see a fourth straight year of double-digit returns in 2026,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said in the official outlook. “We believe the bull market will remain in place through the end of the year, but we expect below-average annual gains and increased volatility.” Here are the current 2026 targets from top strategists: (Pro subscribers can follow the Strategist’s research throughout the year here as forecasters update their outlooks.) There are many positive forces supporting a bull market in stocks. In addition to the positive fiscal and monetary backdrop, real GDP in the United States is expected to increase by more than 2% in 2026, driven by workforce expansion and significant productivity gains driven by AI adoption. Goldman Sachs estimates that early adoption of AI could boost profit growth by 0.4% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. This supports a series of confident predictions in this study. The most optimistic is Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, who expects the S&P 500 to rise to 8,100 in 2026 and said stocks remain his favorite asset class. Other prospects are equally bright. Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha predicts the S&P 500 index could reach 8,000 next year. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said AI investments could cause the broader index to jump to 7,800. Job market is a cause for concern Some are concerned that investors are not thinking seriously enough about the impact AI will have on the economy. Savita Subramanian of Bank of America Securities called the year-end target of 7,100 jobs the most bearish in the survey and said she was concerned the labor market would weaken further in 2026. He said the middle-income professional services that have driven consumption growth are likely to collapse next year, impacting a wider range of consumers than the lower-income groups who have borne the brunt of the economic downturn. “I think this is a year where we’re going to see a lot of multiple compression,” Subramanian said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” As a result, the strategist upgraded Consumer Essentials from underweight to overweight. He downgraded consumer-based weight from underweight to market weight. Stock Picking Market To be sure, Subramanian predicts a wide range of outcomes next year. She expects the S&P 500 index to end the year at 7,100, but also expects it to reach 8,000 at some point. His bear market against the broader market index is down 5,500, or nearly 20%. 8,500 is her bullish case and is over 25% above current levels. In fact, what’s clear from this survey is that strategists expect investors to be more selective about their spots than in previous years. Higher than normal volatility can mean a bias towards quality, including technology. Moderate overall index returns may require greater discernment about which stocks are winners rather than losers, even among the fastest-rising AI stocks. “As we enter the new year, we advise investors to remain invested, but remain cautious,” CFRA’s Stovall said. —CNBC’s Fred Imbert contributed to this report.
