The United Nations Security Council is scheduled to vote on Monday on a draft resolution to move Gaza beyond the fragile ceasefire that took effect last month and towards more sustainable peace and reconstruction.
Its central feature is a peace committee that will run Gaza for two years, with the support of international troops and Palestinian police trained by Egypt. According to a draft resolution obtained by CNN, the council will oversee Israel’s key demands: the disarmament of Hamas and other groups and the reconstruction of Gaza.
The resolution, which builds on US President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan released in September, has already faced opposition from some within the Israeli government and could face a veto from Russia, China, or both if it goes to a vote.
Russia proposed an alternative plan. And a veto by one of the permanent members of the Security Council would leave the plan in limbo, if not effectively doomed.
The solution is also vague as to order and details. Western diplomatic sources told CNN that the lack of detail in the resolution makes it difficult for it to take effect, and that even if the resolution were passed, they were pessimistic that the current ceasefire would remain in place.
According to the draft, some of its key proposals are listed below.
The resolution calls for “the establishment of a Commission for Peace (BoP) as an interim government with international legal personality.”
These are President Trump’s thoughts on the interim rule of Gaza. The resolution states that Gaza’s redevelopment would be coordinated according to President Trump’s 20-point blueprint, the so-called Comprehensive Plan.
Diplomats familiar with the process say it is still unclear who will serve as the BoP commissioner and what their powers will be.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair was at one point tipped to lead the council under President Donald Trump, even though his support for the Iraq war had damaged his standing among some Arab countries and he was perceived as pro-Israel among many Palestinians.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last month that the board would not include representatives from Hamas’ rival Palestinian Authority, which runs parts of the occupied West Bank, Israeli officials said.
“It is up to Israel and the United States to decide whether the conditions are met or not, and there is a barrier to the conditions,” he was quoted as saying.
According to the draft, the BoP, together with its member states and in close consultation with Israel and Egypt, will “establish an Interim International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza to be deployed under unified command.”
According to the draft, it would ensure “a process of demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, including the prevention of the destruction and reconstruction of military, terrorist and offensive infrastructure, and the permanent destruction of weapons of non-state armed groups.”
Once the ISF “establishes control and stability,” Israeli forces will withdraw from Gaza “based on criteria, milestones and deadlines related to demilitarization.”
This is, in a nutshell, a hornet’s nest. Order management will be difficult, and the ISF will have to carry out the complex task of disarming Hamas and other groups that still have large numbers of rockets and heavy weapons.
Some Hamas officials continue to deny the possibility of disarming Hamas’s military wing. Hamas fighters will be reluctant to give up light weapons to protect themselves from other groups in Gaza seeking retaliation.
Prime Minister Netanyahu said his People’s Party must be in charge of disarming Hamas, and reiterated on Sunday that “Gaza will be demilitarized and Hamas will be disarmed, whether it’s the easy way or the hard way.”
It has been pointed out that several countries, including Indonesia, Turkey, and Egypt, are likely involved in the ISF in the Gaza Strip. However, no one has deployed, and there has been little public discussion of the chain of command or the relationship between the ISF and the Palestinian police training in Egypt.
Israel is very likely to reject Türkiye’s role.
Israeli officials say the Americans themselves have no intention of cooperating with the effort on the ground and are struggling to form an international force willing to enter Gaza to demilitarize it. The official told CNN that the US is now considering skipping the demilitarization stage and moving straight into reconstruction. Such a move would infuriate Israel, as it would leave Hamas with weapons.
That would undermine the United States’ own UN resolutions and is unacceptable to Israel, the official said. The United States was “moving toward an interim solution that was unacceptable to Israel.”
According to the draft resolution, the BoP will hand it over to the Palestinian Authority (PA) once it has “satisfactorily completed its reform program.”
The draft does not expand on what these reforms should be, but refers to a joint Franco-Saudi plan that includes the PA’s commitment to “hold democratic and transparent general and presidential elections within one year” of the Gaza ceasefire.
Last week, President Emmanuel Macron said France would help the Palestinian Authority draft a constitution for a future Palestinian state, as part of a broader effort to promote a two-state solution.
The Israeli government wants a civilian government in Gaza that is not led by the PA or Hamas. But it will be difficult to find a Palestinian who does not pledge allegiance to either group and is qualified enough to lead Gaza’s reconstruction.
The elephant in the room.
The resolution states that, depending on progress in Palestine, “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible path to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. The United States will establish dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians and agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous coexistence.”
There are many caveats to this language, but the path remains a possibility, as the Trump administration downplayed early on.
The Israeli government has made it clear that it will not accept a Palestinian state.
Ahead of Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated that “our opposition to a Palestinian state in any territory west of the Jordan River exists, remains in force and has not changed in the slightest.”
Some far-right ministers have gone even further. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said on Sunday: “There is no such thing as a ‘Palestinian people’.” It is an invention that has no historical, archaeological, or factual basis. ”
Saudi Arabia, which is expected to play a major role in financing Gaza’s reconstruction, takes the opposite view. This week, the powerful crown prince will meet with President Trump.
“The establishment of a Palestinian state is a prerequisite for regional integration. We have said that many times,” Saudi Minister Manal Radwan said at a conference in Bahrain two weeks ago.
