Traders work on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Monday, February 9, 2026 in New York, USA.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
U.S. Treasury yields were flat on Monday after stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls in March.
yield of 10 year treasury The rate increased by more than 2 basis points to 4.368%. of 2 years treasury The index rose more than 2 basis points to 3.873%. of 30 year treasury The yield rose 2 basis points to 4.926%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, and yield and price are inversely related.
The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. This was well above the Dow Jones consensus of $59,000. The unemployment rate also fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, mainly due to a significant decline in labor force participation.
“March’s jobs data showed a strong recovery from February’s weak numbers, but a closer look suggests the labor market is dragging its feet, so it won’t completely reassure the market,” said Ryan Weldon, portfolio manager at IFM Investors. “Earlier this week, layoffs statistics increased for the first time in three months, and job openings remained lower than expected. Higher oil prices are likely to lead to higher input costs and ultimately higher inflation.”
Investors are also paying close attention to developments in the Iran war. On Sunday, President Donald Trump issued an expletive-filled ultimatum, vowing to turn Iran into “hell” if the Islamic Republic doesn’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday at 8pm ET. But hours later, President Trump said in an interview with Fox News that he expected to be able to reach a deal with Tehran by Monday.
Meanwhile, Iran continued its attacks across the Gulf, including on Kuwait’s oil headquarters over the weekend, and has said the vital waterway will fully reopen only after Iran compensates for war damage, rejecting President Trump’s latest threats.
Reuters reported on Monday that Iran and the United States had received a plan to end hostilities that, if agreed, would lead to an immediate ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The framework, which could come into force on Monday, was put together by Pakistan, anonymous sources told Reuters.
The Middle East war is now in its sixth week, energy prices have soared, bond investors have repriced the outlook for worsening inflation and hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year have faded.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is up about 36 basis points from 3.962% before the dispute began, hovering near its highest level since mid-2025.
“Bonds are falling along with stocks, which suggests stagflation rather than a recession,” said Oriano Rizza, a trader at CMC Markets Singapore, warning of increased volatility ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.
Formal agreement could reduce prices WTI crude oil price Raise the price by $20 to $30, S&P500 index Riza estimates that oil prices could rise by up to 5%, while infrastructure strikes could push oil prices into the $130 to $150 per barrel range and push the CBOE volatility index above 35.
Riza said the market could be volatile due to low trading volumes during the holiday Monday, and advised investors to “wait until after Tuesday night to take positions.”
Investors will also be watching a series of key economic indicators released in the U.S. this week, including February’s Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, released Thursday, will provide an early judgment on whether the oil shock is spilling over into prices in the world’s largest economy.
