A forensic team thoroughly examined the charred skeleton of a car in a busy area of Delhi. Less than 24 hours later, the air outside Islamabad’s judicial complex was thick with the aftermath of a suicide bombing.
The two deadly attacks are separate and there is currently no evidence linking the two. But for the two South Asian rivals, the political shock caused by the explosion is a stark reminder of the lingering security problems that are festering beneath the surface across the region.
Explosions in heavily fortified capitals are rare, and officials from India, Pakistan and Afghanistan said two explosions in as many days could reignite a cycle of suspicion and blame after an already tense year for the countries.
A suicide bombing in Islamabad on Tuesday killed at least 12 people and injured 20 more, making it the deadliest attack of its kind to hit Pakistan’s capital in nearly two decades. The incident came a day after a rare car explosion killed at least 10 people and injured more than a dozen others in the historic Derry area.
The twin tragedies have provided powerful ammunition to political hardliners in New Delhi and Islamabad, ratcheting up domestic pressure for decisive action against each government.
The blame game quickly began.
Without providing evidence, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif blamed “Indian terrorist proxies” for the Islamabad attack and claimed he received “Indian support” from mainland Afghanistan. The New Delhi government hit back, rejecting the “baseless and baseless allegations” as a “hopeless diversion”.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a speech about the Delhi blasts, vowing to “bring all those responsible… to justice.” The Indian government on Wednesday called the explosion a “terrorist incident” that was “perpetrated by anti-national forces.”
New Delhi has not named Pakistan in connection with the blast, and authorities have so far remained tight-lipped about who they believe is responsible. But India has frequently blamed Islamabad for past attacks, which makes this week’s double attack potentially dangerous.
“We are witnessing an increasingly fragile security environment across South Asia,” said Farwa Aamer, director of the South Asia Initiative at the Asian Social Policy Institute.
“South Asia cannot tolerate further conflict. The region is united by a fragile ceasefire with no long-term solution. What is needed now is restraint, self-reflection, and an effort to reset the region’s trajectory toward stability.”
Both India and Pakistan have historically faced significant security threats, and their capitals are considered strongholds, home to their governments, military leaders, and diplomatic corps.
In Delhi, the attack occurred near the iconic Red Fort, a landmark and tourist hub filled with crowded bazaars and street vendors. It came hours after police recovered thousands of kilograms of explosives from a village in Faridabad, a city on the outskirts of New Delhi.
A senior Faridabad police official confirmed to CNN that police are investigating whether the recovery of these explosives is linked to the Red Fort blast. Police from Delhi, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana are carrying out joint operations across these states, officials said.
Mr. Modi has built a brand on strong national security policies and cast himself as the country’s “watchdog,” and opposition politicians were quick to pursue allegations of security shortcomings.
“If the country is not safe…if the people are not safe…questions will be raised,” Indian National Congress national spokesperson Supriya Srinath told local news agency ANI. She criticized the Prime Minister’s trip to Bhutan the day after the attack. “People… are starting to feel like this country is not under strong control,” she said.
The explosion occurred in the parking lot of a judicial complex across the border in Islamabad. The area is located in an area where many government officials reside.
Pakistan has suffered chronic instability at the hands of extremists, but Tuesday’s explosion was the deadliest to hit the capital since 2008, and Islamabad rarely witnesses such attacks thanks to tight security.
“I carry a great burden and great pain in my heart,” Jaseem Ahmed Bhutto, an advocate who witnessed the attack, told Reuters. “If the courthouses where ordinary people and celebrities go and cases are resolved are not safe, then there is confusion and anxiety about who is safe in this city?”
Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), the extremist Pakistan Taliban (TTP) splinter group behind the country’s deadliest attack in the past decade, claimed responsibility for the bombing in a statement seen by CNN. However, TTP distanced itself, according to TTP spokesperson Mohammad Khursasani.
The bombing prompted a furious government response. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared a “state of war” and said the attack was a “wake-up call” regarding Afghanistan. This is in reference to Pakistan’s claim that safe havens for militants on Afghan territory are the root of the problem.
Pakistan has faced a surge in insurgent violence since the Afghan Taliban seized power in Kabul in 2021, and cross-border tensions have escalated, with the two countries recently erupting into the worst clashes in years. Recent talks between Qatar and Istanbul aimed at ending recent cross-border fighting have made little progress.
The Afghan Taliban denied supporting the Pakistani Taliban and expressed “deep sadness and condemnation” over Tuesday’s Islamabad attack.
According to Fahad Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University, this year has been “particularly bad” for Pakistan and Afghanistan, “not only in terms of loss of life of Pakistani soldiers, but also in terms of loss of many officer-level personnel.”
This is something that “Pakistan’s political and military leadership takes very seriously,” he noted.
The cycle of blame and exaggeration following attacks in India and Pakistan is a well-documented political pattern. And while this rhetoric serves the political needs of both governments, it also has the potential to push the two countries into a dangerous conflict.
South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said this week’s attacks occurred at a “moment of great turmoil and instability in South Asia.”
Pakistan has accused Taliban-backed militants, who appear to have Indian backing, and the situation could escalate further, he said. “We are looking at a potential crisis that could involve not just two but three countries in South Asia: Pakistan, Afghanistan and India,” Kugelman added.
This blame game is fueled by deep-rooted narratives on both sides.
Pakistan has long accused India of supporting terrorism in the country, and has said Indian intelligence agencies are using Afghanistan as a base to support anti-Pakistan extremists such as the TTP.
At the same time, India has long accused Pakistan of supporting and harboring militants who carry out attacks. Both sides deny each other’s accusations.
Pakistan blamed India for Tuesday’s suicide bombing, just months after the two nuclear-armed rivals engaged in some of the heaviest fighting in decades. The four-day battle in May featured clashes between fighter jets, missiles and drones.
The deadly conflict was sparked by a massacre in the scenic mountainous region of Indian-administered Kashmir, where gunmen killed 26 people, mostly Indian tourists.
Following a familiar scenario, India blamed Pakistan for the attack, but Islamabad denied the charges. Prime Minister Modi has since redefined India’s terrorism policy, saying any attack on mainland India would be considered an “act of war.” New Delhi launched airstrikes against the neighboring country, prompting Pakistan to respond swiftly with military retaliation.
Humayun said many in Pakistan may have been watching the aftermath of the Delhi blast “with bated breath”, wondering if it would trigger a familiar rebuke from India. He emphasized that the initial “restraint on the part of India” was a departure from that script.
But if the Indian government suggests the explosion was a terrorist attack, Kugelman said, “the public will probably expect some major response from the Indian government.” “However, I don’t think there will be too much pressure on New Delhi.”
India’s main counter-terrorism agency, the National Investigation Agency, took over the investigation.
Residents of Delhi and Islamabad have been left cleaning up the rubble and mourning the dead as governments separately attempt to uncover the truth behind both attacks.
Humayun said both capitals had been “almost insulated from these types of incidents” for many years.
The potential for such vulnerabilities to occur in these cities suggests that this type of vulnerability is “no longer just a symptom of the hinterland, but is emerging in large cities as well.”
