Istanbul (AP) – An Israel’s strike There is growing concern that it could become the next target across Turkey at a meeting of officials in Hamas, Qatar.
Turkish Ministry of Defense spokesman Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would “stretch further reckless attacks like they did in Qatar, dragging the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.”
Israel and Türkiye were once strong regional partners, but relations between the countries have been in difficult times since the late 2000s, reaching an all-time low The War in Gaza It was triggered by a Hamas-led attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Tensions are rising, as both countries have Competed for influence In neighboring Syria since the collapse of the Bashar Assad government last year.
Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan has been a longtime supporter of the Palestinian cause and the Palestinian extremist group Hamas. The Turkish president has criticized Israel, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accusing Israel of being genocide since the start of the Gaza War and accusing Netanyahu of comparing it to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officials regularly visit Turkey, some living there. Israel previously accused Turkey of allowing Hamas to plan an attack from its territory, and conducted recruitment and funding.
Erdogan is close to Qatar’s leadership, and Turkey maintains strong military and commercial ties with the Emirates. He is scheduled to travel to Qatar this weekend for the Arab and Muslim Leader Summit.
After Israel’s attacks on Iran, Syria, Yemen and the current Qatar territory, Ankara will be concerned about Israel’s ability to freely use the airspace of its neighboring states.
“The ability to exempt Israel from strikes and often bypass regional air defenses and international norms sets a precedent that deeply concerns Ankara,” said Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of the Trend Research and Advisory Turkish Programme.
Turkey considers these attacks to be “a broader Israeli strategy to establish fragmented buffer zones of weak or mitigated states around them.”
Turkey has excellent military power
By attacking Qatar, crossing a previously unthinkable line, Gaza Cerez-Fire MeetingIsrael also raised the question of how far it will go in pursuing Hamas’ targets.
Through NATO membership, Turkey appears to have greater protection against Israeli attacks than what has been given to Qatar by its close ties with the US.
Turkey also boasts significantly greater military power than Gulf states, whose troops are second largest in the United States, only between NATO countries and advanced defense industries.
As tensions grew, Turkey supported its defense. During Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facility in June, Erdogan said Increased missile production. Last month he officially launched Turkey. “Steel Dome” Integrated air defense system. Meanwhile, projects such as the Khan 5th generation fighter jets are being quickly tracked.
Ozgur Norhisarsikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, said Israeli airstrikes on NATO members’ territory “very unlikely”, but small bomb or gun attacks by Israeli agents on potential Hamas targets in Turkey could be outstanding.
Meanwhile, Cubukcuoglu said Qatar’s attack could strengthen Ankara’s support for Hamas.
“This resonates with Turkish fears that Israel could ultimately expand such an operation into Turkish territory,” he said. “The Turkish government has now calculated that abandoning Hamas will weaken the regional impact, and standing up supports its role as a defender of the Palestinian cause against Israeli invasion.”
Tensions can occur in Syria
Though tensions over the war in Gaza and the relationship between Turkey and Hamas have been noted, Unluhisarcikli warned that there may be greater dangers in Syria, where he explained that Israel and Turkey are “climbing courses.”
“It’s a hopeful idea to target Syrian Turkish troops, Turkish allies, or proxies, to think that going too far is a hopeful idea,” he said.
Since the Syrian rebels Unmarried Assad In December, tensions erupted between Türkiye and Israel. Ankara has attempted to support the new interim government and expand its impact, including the military sphere.
Israel is skeptical of the new government. have Unpatrol buffer zone seized In southern Syria, hundreds of airstrikes have been launched at Syrian military facilities. Guardians of the religious minority of Druze against the mostly Sunni Muslim authorities in Damascus.
Tensions could also ripple over the wider Eastern Mediterranean, with Israel potentially approaching Greek and Greek Cypriots and challenge Turkish military presence in northern Cyprus.
Turkey mixes deterrent and diplomacy
Turkey appears to be pursuing a mix of Syrian military deterrence and diplomacy aimed at easing tensions in order to avoid direct conflict with Israel.
Türkiye and Israeli officials held talks in April Establishing a “mechanism of escalation” In Syria. The move follows an Israeli attack on an air base in Syria, which Turkey allegedly planned to use. Netanyahu said at the time that Turkish bases in Syria would be “a dangerous to Israel.”
Ankara and Damascus provided a Turkey agreement last month Military training and advice to the Syrian army.
Erdogan may also want Washington to take away strict boundaries against Israeli military aggression.
Netanyahu has sought support from President Donald Trump in his confrontation with Turkey, but instead Trump praised Erdogan for “taking over Syria.” He urged Netanyahu to be “rational.” With his deal with Türkiye.
However, as Qatar’s strike has shown, having a strong relationship with Washington is not necessarily protection against Israel.
Qatar’s attacks “have no limits on what the Israeli government can do,” Unluhisarcikli said.
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Swell contributed from Beirut.
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