Stock markets finally rose this week, buoyed by optimism that the Iran war will end sooner rather than later. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on Thursday ended a five-week losing streak during the holiday-shortened business week. The market-wide index rose 3.4%, and the tech stock index rose 4.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.96%, also its first positive week in six weeks. For most of this week, falling oil prices have given stocks room to rise, reinforcing the inverse relationship seen since the outbreak of war on February 28th. Thursday was an exception, as oil prices soared, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose anyway as a positive sign. Gaining 11.4% on Thursday, the U.S. oil benchmark, WTI crude for May delivery, rose nearly 12% in four days, marking its sixth positive week out of seven. After last week’s terrible performance, the stock market was poised to rebound if there was any reason for optimism. Uncertainty rocked markets as Iranian authorities and President Donald Trump gave mixed signals about the status of the conflict. From March 23 to March 27, the S&P 500 stock index fell 2.1%, its worst week since October last year. The Nasdaq’s weekly decline of 3.2% was the largest since last April, when President Trump announced tariffs on “Emancipation Day.” As Wall Street continues to focus on overseas developments in recent days, new labor data and a wave of huge IPO reports also caught our attention. As we look forward to seeing what Monday brings, here’s a breakdown of these three themes. A week at war again The market has weathered the fifth week of the US-Iran war, posting weekly gains for the first time during the war. Wall Street took note of the positive message that made a resolution more likely amid a series of conflicting headlines. Much of the market’s gains came from Tuesday’s trading on unconfirmed reports that Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian was willing to end the war with guarantees. The offensive continued into Wednesday even after President Trump told reporters late Tuesday that U.S. troops would be withdrawn from Iran within “two to three weeks.” Thursday’s rally boiled over after President Trump’s prime-time address Wednesday night was filled with escalating rhetoric. On Thursday, reports that Iran and Oman had drafted a protocol to “monitor transit” through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil waterway, helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq overcome sharp declines and post modest gains. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61 points, or 0.13%, after dropping more than 600 points at its low on Thursday. “This was a very unexpected and incredibly unusual snapback that made me think maybe the ‘bears’ were taking a short vacation,” Jim Cramer said Thursday night. “There has never been another day when oil prices have been this high, and they should probably be down 1.5% to 2%. It was incredibly realistic and a sign of something good to come. But we have no idea where that is right now, and we’re not going to pretend we know.” On Thursday morning, the club released analysis on how investors should navigate this turbulent and uncertain market. Lots of labor data This week ended on a high note, packed with the latest information on the labor market. The so-called JOLTS report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed job openings fell more than expected in February. In fact, companies hired employees at the slowest pace since 2011, excluding the start of the pandemic in 2020. Wednesday’s ADP data provided a slightly more upbeat picture. The payroll agency’s monthly private sector employment numbers for March showed that the number of employees rose by 62,000. The government’s official March jobs report, which concluded the week Friday morning, showed payrolls rose by 178,000 last month, well above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 59,000. The three-month average number of employees increased by about 68,000 people, due to the positive January data and revisions to the weak February data. The health of the labor market, along with inflation statistics, plays a large role in determining the Fed’s interest rates. The central bank’s twin goals are price stability and maximum employment. Higher oil prices due to the war could reignite inflation, but March’s jobs report may help ease short-term “stagflation” concerns as it suggests the labor market is not as weak as February’s lackluster data suggested. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are overwhelmingly pricing in zero interest rate cuts from the central bank through the end of 2026. However, it is unclear what the path to lowering interest rates will be if President Trump’s nominee for Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, takes over from Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. Mr. Warsh strongly favors easing monetary policy. To be sure, Mr. Warsh has not yet been confirmed by the Senate. Big IPO Plans There were a lot of IPO headlines this week as well. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has secretly filed for an initial public offering, CNBC’s David Faber reported Wednesday. The company is working with at least 21 banks to go public, and could be valued at $1.75 trillion, according to Reuters. At the same time, expectations for OpenAI’s potential IPO continue to rise. The creator of ChatGPT closed a $122 billion funding round this week at an impressive post-funding valuation of $852 billion. Anthropic, the startup behind the Claude model, is also considering an IPO this year, as is lesser-known Databricks, which was last valued at $134 billion. “There’s never been a deal like this before,” Jim told CNBC on Wednesday. “They’re so big that we don’t even know how to analyze them.” While the IPO pipeline is a remarkable story, the impact of the war is still secondary. However, if the Middle East conflict is resolved soon, these mega IPOs and any ripple effects they may have on the overall market will become impossible to ignore. On the positive side, this could be a financial windfall for our bank stocks, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, which will be much needed after a weak first quarter of 2026. As I wrote on Wednesday, increased trading activity could help reignite these stocks. At the same time, a large influx of new supply into the market could pose a risk to other sectors. To buy stock in a new and exciting company that debuts, investors typically need to sell something else to raise cash and make room in their portfolio. As Jim likes to say, the stock market is like any other market: supply and demand rule the day. If the supply of a product is greater than the demand, the price may fall. This dynamic will continue to be on our minds as we monitor the timing of these potential monster deals. (See here for a complete list of Jim Cramer Charitable Trust stocks.) As a subscriber to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investment Club, you will receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. After Jim sends a trade alert, he waits 45 minutes before buying or selling stocks in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim talks about a stock on CNBC TV, he will issue a trade alert and then wait 72 hours before executing the trade. The above investment club information is subject to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary duties or obligations exist or arise from your receipt of information provided in connection with the Investment Club. No specific results or benefits are guaranteed.
