Jerusalem
—
Anyone looking at the situation in Gaza on Tuesday could have reasonably concluded that the ceasefire had broken down.
According to the military, Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip were hit by grenade and sniper fire in Rafah, killing one Israeli soldier. In retaliation, Israel carried out punitive attacks across Gaza, killing more than 100 people, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
A U.S.-brokered ceasefire appeared to be collapsing. But by Wednesday morning, both Hamas and Israel announced they were recommitting to the deal.
This is the second escalation in violence since a ceasefire took effect on October 10. However, like the battle that occurred nine days later, in which two Israeli soldiers and at least 36 Palestinians were killed, the fighting was short-lived and ended within a few hours.
The new normal in Gaza appears to be a ceasefire that is both fragile and durable. While truces generally hold, they can quickly disappear and be restored within hours or days.
Until the next escalation.
This situation between full-scale conflict and comprehensive peace does not bring closure. Palestinians will live in constant fear of the next wave of deadly attacks, while Israel will forever teeter on the brink of war.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that a ceasefire “will not be a linear journey.” There will be “ups and downs” and “twists and turns,” he said. Vice President J.D. Vance said yesterday that there would be “little skirmishes here and there.” Still, both sides were optimistic about the ceasefire’s continuation.
The deal was largely imposed by the sheer force of will of US President Donald Trump to rein in Israel, while mediators pressured Hamas to accept. Sustaining the agreement will require continued U.S. attention, especially since the next steps will require difficult challenges such as creating an international force in Gaza and disarming Hamas.
The fragility of the ceasefire is a function of the gulf between what the agreement has achieved so far and what it has yet to achieve. The fighting has almost stopped. Hamas handed over more than half of the living hostages and dead. Israel retreated to the yellow line demarcating the initial withdrawal point within the Gaza Strip.
But in the current impasse between the near-complete first phase of the deal and a far more difficult second phase that would require a more complete withdrawal and end to the war, Israeli forces occupy more than half of the Gaza Strip.
Mohammad Shehada, a Gaza expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the territory contains isolated Hamas cells trapped in tunnels and outside the militant group’s command and control. With limited resources and no connections to the rest of Hamas’ leadership, each cell is “on the brink of disaster,” Shehada said.
“The closer IDF vehicles are to the tunnels and hideouts of isolated and isolated fighters, or the closer they run out of food, the more likely they are to show up in combat with Israeli soldiers,” Shehada told CNN. “They would rather die in battle than starve or wait for the IDF to find them.”
After the first serious ceasefire violation on October 19, Hamas issued a statement saying that “contacts with the remnants of our group” in areas such as Rafah “have been cut off since fighting resumed in March.” According to Shehada, these “debris” are a “ticking time bomb.”
“Hamas doesn’t even know how many people are still alive,” Shehada said.
Israel and Hamas have engaged in a number of short-term rapid escalations prior to this war. In 2018 and 2019, the two sides engaged in multiple gunfights, often ending within 48 hours. But these escalations are now moving almost exclusively in one direction, with Israel unleashing firepower against an exhausted Hamas in Gaza.
According to the Palestinian Ministry of Health, more than 200 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ceasefire, the majority during two days of escalation on October 19 and 28. Three Israeli soldiers were killed in Gaza during the same period.
Yoav Limor, a military and defense analyst with the right-wing Israel Hayom newspaper, said further conflict was inevitable and US involvement would be needed to prevent the deal from collapsing.
“Hamas will continue to be Hamas. Hamas will become stronger and stronger and will continue its attacks. Those who believe that Hamas has changed do not understand the dynamics and nature of the region,” Limor said. “That’s why Washington must push forward with the next steps in the ceasefire agreement and work to oust Hamas from power. Otherwise, the situation could worsen.”
The United States has sent senior officials to monitor the cease-fire and has begun building the mechanisms needed for the next phase of the agreement, which includes humanitarian assistance and rebuilding Gaza. This is a significant expenditure of political capital, but the details are still being worked out, and it signals to Israel and the region that the White House remains committed. The United States is determined to keep the process moving forward, even if progress is incremental.
In the short term, Limor said, “this familiar pattern of violence and response is likely to persist even with a ceasefire.” Israel is preparing for an election year in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wary of resuming all-out war. Hamas is also seeking a hudna, or period of peace, during which it can recover and rebuild, he said.
Breaking this pattern of ceasefires marred by violent escalation and preventing the emergence of a new normal will require significant progress on some of the 20-point plan’s most difficult terms, including the disarmament of Hamas and the creation of new governance in Gaza.
At a press conference on Wednesday, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Hamas was ready to cede power in the Gaza Strip, although he acknowledged that Doha was “trying to push all of Hamas to the point where they recognize the need for disarmament.”
He said Hamas must be ready to move on to the next stage of the agreement. “We need to make sure that both Palestinians and Israelis are safe…We need to create a political horizon for the Palestinian people and establish a Palestinian institution that can be the sole bearer of arms.”
Failing that, Israelis and Palestinians will remain stuck in a short-term ceasefire without peace with no prospect of a long-term solution.
