After a month of threats, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels finally entered the Middle East conflict on Saturday, firing two missiles at Israel. And it recently warned that it could close the vital waterway at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, raising the possibility of further disruption to global shipping and oil supplies.
It remains unclear whether the Houthis will expand their attacks to Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping, but doing so would mark a dramatic escalation in the month-long war.
The Houthis represent Yemen’s Shiite Muslim Zaidi minority, officially known as Ansar Allah, or “Partisans of God.”
They emerged as an armed group in the 1990s and fought a series of uprisings against Yemen’s central government over two decades. After the 2011 Arab Spring, Yemen occupied the northern provinces and then the capital, Sana’a, which it still occupies, along with much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast.
In the process, they became part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” throughout the region and received weapons and missile technology. After the war between Israel and Hamas began in the Gaza Strip in October 2023, the Houthis began firing missiles at Israel and targeting ships in the Red Sea.
Israel counterattacked with airstrikes against Houthi infrastructure, killing many senior Houthi officials but not the top leadership.
Houthis announce participation in Iran war by firing missiles at Israel
The first attack attempted on Saturday was very limited, and some analysts see it as a symbolic move rather than an effort to fully support Iran.
“The truth is that (Israel) is at war with us and in a state of continuous aggression against us,” said Nasr al-Din Amer, a member of the Houthi politburo.
“They have not stopped pursuing what they call ‘Greater Israel’ and ‘Transformation of the Middle East,’ and they have not hidden it,” Amer said in a statement to CNN on Saturday.
Houthi leader Abdulmalik Houthi said Thursday that Yemenis “repay loyalty with loyalty, and Iran is the only country that formally cooperates with us against aggression against our country.”
Much of his speech was directed at Saudi Arabia, demanding compensation for the blockade and long-term damage suffered by Yemen as a result of Riyadh’s military campaign against the Houthis from 2015 to 2022.
Essentially, while the Houthis are not inviting Saudi retaliation, they are warning Saudi Arabia.
“This allows them to resume military operations without getting drawn into a broader fight with the US or Saudi Arabia,” said Mohammad Basha, a Yemeni analyst.
“Their main focus remains the Palestinian cause. By attacking Israel, they are telling the Yemeni people, their partners in the Iranian support network, and their supporters abroad that their priorities have not changed,” Basha wrote to X.
The Israeli military has said it is preparing for a multi-pronged war, but has not provided details about its plans for retaliation.
“We have to prepare for this to be part of this war, and that’s how we prepare for war,” Israel Defense Forces spokesman Nadav Shoshani said Sunday.
“We take them at their word and are prepared to defend ourselves as long as necessary from that direction as well.”
still. The Houthis have little ability to harm Israel. From 2023 to 2025, they launched nearly 100 missiles and more than 300 drones toward Israel. Only one person died.
However, the conflict will escalate further if the Houthis expand their operations to target Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They have previously used missiles and drones against both countries and are already fending off daily attacks from Iran.
If the Houthis resume targeting Red Sea shipping, it would be a real boost for Iran. It responded to Israel’s military action in Gaza by attacking more than 100 ships, raising insurance premiums and persuading many major carriers to avoid what is typically the world’s busiest sea lane.
With the Iranian government blocking most shipping from the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and its major regional allies will likely control, or at least significantly influence, the region’s shipping lanes and oil flows.
The Houthis control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the main port of Hodeidah. It possesses a variety of weapons, including drones and anti-ship missiles, that can cause significant damage or sink commercial ships.
Transport must pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait (translated as Gate of Tears) at the southern tip of the Red Sea. Only 29 kilometers (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, navigational problems make the giant container ships particularly vulnerable.
On Friday, the Houthi government’s deputy information minister, Mohamed Mansour, told CNN that closing the Bab al-Mandab strait “is a viable option and the consequences will be borne by the American and Israeli aggressors.”
How much damage would such a disruption cause to the global economy?
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been sharply curtailed over the past month, and the closure of another maritime chokepoint could cause further economic disruption.
“Disrupting traffic in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea creates pressure without crossing the line and could provoke a direct response from the United States,” Basha said.
Almost 15% of the world’s seaborne trade passes through Bab al-Mandab. Industry estimates suggest that the previous shipping disruption, from 2023 to 2025, likely cost ships around $20 billion a year, as they had to reroute around southern Africa (often extending their voyages by two weeks) and pay high insurance costs to use the Red Sea.
These attacks also caused a short but significant spike in oil prices due to an increase in risk premiums.
But during that period, the world had large stocks of oil and alternative routes. That’s not the case now.
And there are further dangers. With much of the Strait of Hormuz closed to traffic, Saudi Arabia is directing oil exports through an east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, where tanker traffic has surged.
Jeddah Port also handles much larger container shipments.
Both would be vulnerable to Houthi drones and missiles.
Even the possibility of a repeat attack by the Houthis is worrying major shipping companies such as Maersk, which is currently bypassing the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
“The main potential risk is that the actual conflict itself spreads over a wider region,” Charles van der Steene, Maersk’s regional managing director, told CNN earlier this month.
Jeddah “remains a safe option, but we need to consider what the alternatives are,” he added.
While the Houthis may be able to delay a broader escalation, “they may be overlooking the long-term risks. Israel has a pattern of focusing on leadership and delaying responses. A decapitation operation could happen sooner or later,” Basha said.
