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The average tax refund so far this season has increased by 10.9% compared to about the same point in 2025, according to IRS early filing data.
The 2026 tax season opens on Jan. 26, and the average refund as of Feb. 6 was $2,290, up from $2,065 about a year ago, the IRS reported Friday night.
As of February 6, total refunds totaled more than $16.9 billion, an increase of 1.9% from a year ago, according to an IRS release. This figure reflects only the current year’s revenue.
Earlier Friday, Treasury Secretary and Acting IRS Administrator Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that refunds have increased by 22%. But it’s unclear how many days of returns Bessent’s numbers reflect or what comparison period he used.
The Treasury Department did not respond to requests for comment.
“Average refunds are strong,” the IRS said in a release, and that number will increase in a Feb. 27 release if the agency begins issuing refunds that include the Earned Income Tax Credit and the additional child tax credit.
“Early data[on refunds]can be deceptive,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, said in a Jan. 22 tax season guide.
Filers typically receive a refund through payroll withholding or estimated payments if they overpay taxes during the year. Alternatively, if there is not enough payment, the filer is obligated to pay the balance.
In recent years, IRS data has reflected a decline in refunds at the beginning of tax season, but the payments have “increased sharply” in mid-February, Lautz wrote.
After a peak in February, average refunds had “slightly decreased” by the April 15 deadline, he wrote.
In 2025, the average refund for individual filers through Oct. 17 was $3,052, according to the IRS.
Filers may receive a larger tax refund
As the 2026 tax filing season approaches, the amount of tax refunds has become an important political topic as midterm elections approach.
President Donald Trump has promised that 2026 will be the “biggest tax refund season in history” based on changes enacted by his “big, beautiful bill.”
The bill added new tax cuts for 2025, but the IRS did not adjust payroll withholding, potentially resulting in refunds for many workers.
But Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, previously told CNBC that there can be “huge variation among taxpayers.”
Ultimately, the amount of your refund, or outstanding balance, will depend on what new tax breaks apply to your situation and how much you paid throughout the year, experts say.
