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The average tax refund so far this season is up 10.9% compared to about the same time in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of March 20, the average refund for individual filers was $3,571, up from $3,221 about a year ago, the IRS reported Friday.
The IRS data reflects about 79 million individual returns received, out of about 164 million expected by the April 15 deadline.
How is the average tax refund likely to change?
William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC that it’s “unlikely that we’ll see much change” by the April 15 tax deadline, based on weeks of average refund data.
But he said the average could rise further as taxpayers claim a larger deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT. President Trump’s bill increased the SALT limit in 2025 from $10,000 to $40,000.
“For high-income people living in expensive cities, this is a pretty big problem,” McBride said. “Those people don’t tend to file (tax returns) early.”
Most tax returns arrive by late January, but experts say high-income investors could wait longer to receive their returns detailing assets in brokerage accounts and business income.
However, to benefit from the more generous SALT cap for 2025, you will need to itemize your tax deduction rather than claim the standard deduction.
Based on the most recent IRS data, nearly 90% of returns used the standard deduction during the 2022 tax year. In the same year, approximately 15 million returns claimed the SALT deduction, less than 10% of returns.
Experts say changes to the SALT deduction could add even more items to the 2025 tax return.
