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The government shutdown will delay a key announcement that will affect millions of Social Security recipients: how much their benefits will increase in 2026.
Next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustments will be revealed as soon as September consumer price index data, which is expected to be released on October 15th, becomes available. Due to the federal government shutdown, the CPI release was postponed to October 24th.
“The Social Security Administration (SSA) will use this release to develop and announce the 2026 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) on October 24,” a Social Security Administration spokesperson told CNBC.com in an email.
The 2026 COLA, which covers approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries, will go into effect for January payments “without delay due to expiration of current government appropriations,” a spokesperson said.
Experts estimate that benefit increases could be in the range of 2.7-2.8%, based on the government’s latest inflation data. Such an increase would increase average retirement benefits by about $54 per month.
These projected increases will be higher than the 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment that takes effect in 2025 and the average 2.6% experienced by COLA beneficiaries over the past 20 years, according to the Alliance on Seniors.
But the 2026 COLA is likely to be significantly lower than the adjustment following the pandemic-era inflation spike. The highest recent COLA adjustment was 8.7%, implemented in 2023 following a 5.9% increase in benefits in 2022. At the time, both of these increases were the highest in decades.
The amount of Social Security increases that retirees receive is determined by their Medicare Part B premiums. Premiums are usually deducted directly from your benefit check.
Standard monthly Part B premiums could rise 11.6%, or $21.50 per month, from $185 to $206.50 per month, according to Medicare administrator projections. High-income earners may pay an additional monthly fee called the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA).
Medicare Part B premium amounts for 2026 have also not yet been announced.
