Job Seekers at the Mega Jobnewsusa South Florida Arena at Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images
Job growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle, which seeks to fill the data gap created by the government shutdown.
The company said its own data showed job growth for the month was just 17,000, which would be less than the 22,000 gain in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
With the BLS shut down and data suspended until the impasse between Republicans and Democrats in Congress is resolved, Wall Street firms are scrambling to offer alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is headed.
Carlyle’s data suggests other releases will show modest employment growth.
Last week, payroll company ADP’s Processing Company reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, which included reductions due to adjustments to BLS revisions.
And outplacement challenger Gray & Christmas reported last week that while layoffs fell in September, the level of companies’ planned hiring hit its lowest since 2009, when the economy was feeling the fallout from the global financial crisis.
Indeed, while Carlyle’s data showed anemic salary gains, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.
The company said underlying gross domestic product growth was running at an annualized pace of 2.7% in September, and business investment accelerated at a three-month average annual rate of 4.8%. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy fell 3.8% and services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%.
Carlyle said it derived the data from its “vast global portfolio” including 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.
While the firm saw employment data as weak, Goldman Sachs recently said its “underlying job growth” tracker showed 80,000 positions gained in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in a decade.
A New York Fed survey released Monday showed continued concerns about the state of the labor market.
The central bank’s monthly survey of consumer expectations for September showed the share of people expecting the unemployment rate to rise over the next year rose to 41.1%, up 2 percentage points from the previous month. Additionally, the average probability of losing a job in the next year increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.9%.
However, the perceived probability of being able to find a job three months after losing your current position has increased from a low series of 44.9% in August.
