Seasonal employment in the retail industry is poised to fall to a lowest level as it is an early warning sign that the holiday shopping season could be softer than expected since the 2009 recession.
The Challenger predicts that retailers could add positions below 500,000 in the last three months of 2025, marking the smallest seasonal increase in 16 years, marking an 8% decline from the same period last year.
“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year. Customs looms, inflation pressures remain, and many businesses continue to rely on automation and permanent staff in place of the large wave of seasonal employment.”
“If holiday sales were surprised, we could see a delay in adoption, but the careful pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a major seasonal surge.
Challenger forecasts occur as fewer companies make seasonal employment announcements.
This time I liked retailers last year target, Macy’s, Burlington storewith Aldi 1-800-Flowers They had already announced the number of seasonal workers they had planned to hire. But so far, these companies have not yet revealed how many seasonal workers they are planning to hire this season.
Last year, Target said it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers. This year, he said he is tapping on the “On Demand Team,” a group of roughly 43,000 store employees that provide additional time for current employees and earn shifts based on a schedule.
Target said it would hire seasonal team members across stores and supply chain facilities, but said it didn’t say anything about the number of people planning to hire.
Meanwhile, Macy’s, Burlington store, Aldi and 1-800 Fueller have not made any information about holiday employment plans.
I like some companies Amazon and UPS Released adoption figures will be held shortly after the season, Spirit Halloween. Bath & Bodyworks So far, we’ve been among the few who have published seasonal employment plans.
Spirit said it plans to hire the same number of 50,000 people as last year, according to the Challenger. Bath & Body Works is planning to hire 32,000 workers, a slight decline from 32,700 last year, Challenger said.
So far, responses from the retail industry reflect the overall job market that has been slowing in recent months, contributing to the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut key interest rates last week.
In August, non-farm salaries rose just 22,000, well below the expected 75,000 economists surveyed by Dow Jones, a marked slower from July.
In the months before the crucial holiday shopping season, many consumer companies relying on seasonal workers release the number of employees they plan to hire. The Challenger report is one of many indicators of economic debilitation that consumers have recorded in recent months amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s trade war could damage the economy.
Consumers have been under pressure for several years due to sustained inflation and stubbornly high interest rates, but now the prices of some items from tariffs are competing with even higher prices, and high credit card debts are also competing. Many companies offset the cost of higher tariffs by increasing prices.
In early September, consulting firm PWC released a report that found shoppers were planning to spend 5% less on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment this year. This is the first notable decline since 2020. Another consulting firm, Alixpartners, said it would forecast a “overwhelming” 3% to 5% growth rate for holiday retail sales this year.
