LONDON (AP) – Russia sells military equipment and technology to China. Taiwan’s invasionaccording to an analysis of leaked Russian documents by the UK-based Defense Forum.
Royal United Services Research Institute analysis It is based on approximately 800 pages of documents from the Black Moon Hacktivist Group, which previously published several documents online. Rather than identifying members, they describe themselves in their manifesto, as opposed to governments that implement active foreign policy.
The authors of the RUSI report share some of the documents with the Associated Press and say they look real, but some of the documents may have been omitted or changed. APs cannot independently verify their reliability.
The completed apparent draft Russian document combination refers to meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations, including a visit to Moscow, as well as timelines for payment and delivery of highland parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. They suggest that they have begun working on the products provided by Russia, but do not include direct evidence from China that Beijing paid or received the equipment.
The authors claim that it can be infiltrated using equipment. Taiwanunder xi jinping China embarked on a Wide modernization programme of the military, whose goal is to turn it into a “world-class” army by 2050.
Equipment can be used to attack Taiwan
Rankings of US officials Chinese national president Xi Jinping proposed that he had already ordered the military to prepare for Taiwan’s invasion in 2027. Beijing argues that autonomous democracy is, of course, part of China and does not rule out seizures of the island by force.
While the document does not directly refer to Taiwan, an analysis by the London-based lab suggests that the deal could gain advanced parachute capabilities that China needs to launch an invasion, and speed up the timeline.
It is not certain that China has decided to invade Taiwan, but Russian equipment and access to localized training in China means Beijing will be better equipped for potential invasions, Danylyuk said.
“China’s aerial landing schools are very young,” he said, suggesting that Moscow’s support would help speed up China’s aerial programmes to about 10-15 years.
The Russian Kremlin, as well as the Defense and Foreign Ministry of China and Taiwan, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The “major value of the transaction” to China is likely in the training and procedures for command and management of the parachute force. This is because Russia has “combat experience,” while China has no writing about Olexandr Daniluk or Jack Watling.
Analysts say Russia’s purpose is to develop as a Chinese military supplier and fund the war in Ukraine. However, Danylyuk also suggested to the Associated Press that Moscow might want to draw Beijing into a conflict with Washington over Taiwan and divert the US from Russia’s war with Ukraine.
Beijing’s military capabilities are largely outweighed by Moscow’s, but the analysis says there is a gap in China that Russia can meet. Russia has a long history of air forces decades ago.
Beijing’s military commentator Song Zongping said China has excellent equipment, but “Russia has more combat experience.”
“Russia and China have their own relative strengths in paratroping,” Song said. They “we performed articulated air, sea patrols and drills, indicating that we are learning from each other’s strengths to deal with our own weaknesses.”
Russia agreed to provide training and equipment
According to a document made in September 2024, the initial agreement was reached in April 2021 on payment and delivery timelines. According to the document, one and two stages (technical specifications, software changes, and equipment manufacturing analysis) have been completed.
Russia has also agreed to provide full equipment for airborne battalions, including training in China and the ability to carry out penetration by special forces, the analysis said.
This includes the sale of 37 light amphibious attack vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank automatic promotion guns, and 11 aerial armored craftsman carriers, and command and observation vehicles. The total cost is listed as more than $210 million.
Beijing hopes that all vehicles will be equipped with Chinese communications systems and ready to use Chinese ammunition, documents show.
Beijing is looking for a high-altitude parachute system
Russia has agreed to sell a Chinese system designed to parachute up to 190 kilograms (419 pounds) from very high altitudes, the RUSI analysis said.
This document refers to minutes of the meeting in Moscow from March 8, 2024. Russia has agreed to provide in detail how by the end of 2024 the system known to China as Darnoliot will perform the details of how it will run from -40 degrees Celsius (–40 fahrenheit) to –60°Celsius (–76 fahrenheit).
According to documents, Beijing requested testing of a parachute system with drops from 8,000 meters (26,250 feet).
Its height allows the Chinese military to slide for up to 80 kilometers (50 miles) and “can penetrate the territory of other countries without Chinese special forces groups noticing,” the RUSI report said.
Danylyuk proposed that the Dalnolyot system could be used for “stage zero” landings in Taiwan. In this system, Beijing secretly sends equipment and special forces from aircraft outside Taiwan’s airspace.
Russian parachute forces failed in Ukraine
Russia has a long history of parachute forces, but Moscow did not successfully deploy them in Ukraine.
In February 2022, just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, his special forces soldiers attempted to take over the Kiev outskirts of Kiev.
They had planned to set up a base that would fly with more units; Several Russian helicopters were attacked by missiles Before they even reached Hozumel. Attempts to control a military air base south of Kiev also failed.
Western officials and military experts suggest that the failure to establish an air force bridge from Russia to Ukraine turned what Moscow had expected to be a quick victory into a tough three-year war.
Now Moscow has immersed in it The Soviet era has stocks to replace weapons on the battlefield And, like Ukraine, they are strengthening their weapons production.
But that doesn’t mean that Moscow cannot sell equipment to China, Danylyuk said.
The aerial equipment mentioned in the document was only needed during the “invasion stage,” he said. Russia is fighting “a completely different war now” and he said that such equipment is not needed for Ukraine.
Lessons from Russia’s defeat
In Taiwan’s invasion, China’s “operational challenge” is to do things Russia did not do. Analysts write that it could curb Taiwan’s air defense, suppress sufficient military and equipment, and build the strength to defeat Taiwan’s army before it mobilizes.
The report suggests that China can do so by airing armored vehicles at golf courses near Taiwan’s ports and airfields.
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Associated Press journalists Dake Kang of Beijing and David Rising of Bangkok contributed to this report.
