TALINNING, Estonia (AP) – The last time Russia and Belarus were held in Moscow’s 2022 major joint military training Send the army to Ukraine Just a few days later. now Two close allies We are playing war games again, raising new tensions in the region
According to the official report, the war game called “Zapad 2025” or “West 2025” will be held in Belarus starting Friday and will continue until September 16th.
Its purpose is to introduce the close connection between Moscow and Minsk. Russian troops may also be in a three-and-a-half year war in neighbouring Ukraine.
The war game has attracted concerns among western allies of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, which border Belarus. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many of which came from Belarus.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said this year’s exercise “strickens peaceful efforts” for US President Donald Trump to end the war, and “subjects an imminent threat not only to Ukraine, but also to Poland, the Baltic countries and all of Europe.”
Regional tensions surged further after Poland on Wednesday He said several Russian drones were in it. It was shot down with the help of its territory and NATO allies. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tass said a considerable number came from Belarus.
The Russian army said it was not targeting Poland, and Belarus suggested that the drone had been off course, but some European leaders said it seemed intentional.
You need to know about the exercise:
Belarus lowers the scale
Belarusian defense officers Initially, a unit of about 13,000 people said. Participates in a movement that takes place near the western border. But in May, the defense ministry said that numbers would be cut in almost half and major operations would occur more deeply within the country. Some of the movements will also be carried out within Russia.
Last month, Defense Minister Victor Krenin said most of the movement will occur in Barrisar, about 74 kilometers (46 miles) northeast of Minsk, but some “small units will perform practical tasks to repel hypothetical enemies in areas near the border between Poland and Lithuania.” Two of the five new fortresses built for the drill are also found in those areas, Krenin said.
Belarus also sent formal invitations to all member states of European security cooperation agencies and nine countries with NATO military attachments to Minsk to monitor drills.
The dictatorial president Alexander Lukashenko Recently, his willingness to repair relations with the West has been severely tense for years at opposition and his brutal crackdown on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Last year, there was a public call for regular release of political prisoners and reconciliation with the West. Lukashenko spoke to Trump on the phone last month. That is in stark contrast to other Western leaders who largely shunned the Belarusians.
Lukashenko He ruled Belarus Iron hands for over 30 years It relies on Kremlin subsidies and support. He allowed Russia to use its territory of his country as a staging site to send troops to Ukraine, hosting parts of Moscow. Tactical nuclear weapons.
Now, Lukashenko is “promising to push the escalation narrative, influence Putin’s actions, and make concessions such as freeing political prisoners,” Chatham House’s Belarus Initiative Director, Raihol Astopenia, said in a recent commentary.
Another reason is that Russia, wandering in a war of attrition on the approximately 1,000km (600 miles) frontline in Ukraine, does not spare a considerable number of troops for training, and Belarus’ numbers are also limited.
Western estimates were varied. Some suggest that the number of troops involved could be around 30,000, while others said it would be up to 150,000. According to Russian authorities, when the Zapaddrill was last held in September 2021, around 200,000 troops participated.
Nuclear Weapon Planning Practice
During this year’s training, the military practices “planning the use of” Russian nuclear weapons According to Krenin, a nuclear-responsive midrange missile that Moscow has promised to supply Minsk.
In December, Lukashenko and Putin signed a treaty that would grant security guarantees to Belarus.
At the time, Lukashenko asked Putin to deploy more advanced weapons to Belarus, including nuclear responses. Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Russia first used it against Ukraine in November.
Putin replied that Oleshnik missiles could be deployed to Belarus in the second half of 2025, adding that it was under Russian control, but Moscow will allow Minsk to select his target.
This treaty followed the revision of Moscow Nuclear DoctrineIn the midst of tensions with the West, Belarus was placed under Russian nuclear umbrella for the first time.
Russia has not stated the number of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, but Lukashenko said in December that there are dozens of them in their country. This deployment expands Russia’s capabilities and targets several NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe.
Andrei Baklitsky, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute of Disarmament, said the two countries have announced that only nuclear weapon decisions will be practiced in training.
Belarus’ Russian nuclear weapons require a lot to be resolved from a procedural standpoint, Baklitskiy said.
“You have double subordinates and you have your own boss… there may be exercises aimed at this to understand how this works,” he said.
NATO members remain cautious
Despite Belarus’ seemingly toned down rhetoric about Zapad 2025, NATO members are still cautious.
Even before the drone invasion, Task said on Tuesday that Zappard’s exercise constituted “very aggressive” military operations with “provocation” by Russia and Belarus “very close” to his country’s borders.
Poland responds with its own military exercises.
Tusk added that Swarkigap, a strategic land in Poland and Lithuania that separates the exclusive Kaliningrad of Belarus and Russia’s Baltic Sea, was one of Zapad’s targets, suggesting that there was fear in Poland that he would practice for later attacks.
The Swarki Gap has long been considered a potential flash point for a standoff between Russia and NATO. Lukashenko has sidelined the idea of attacking Swarki Gap as “complete nonsense” during the Zapad drill.
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said in June that Vilnius and its allies were ready for “all kinds of surprises,” despite the fact that the training was thought to be “two-three times smaller” in 2021. Lithuanian Defense Minister Devil Shakarien added that the exercise will be held in parallel with Zapad 2025.
Germany has led its own major military exercise, Quadriga 2025, for weeks in September, and is expected to be agreed at the same time as Zapad 2025.
Ukrainian President Voldymi Zelenki has repeatedly warned that Russia may be planning another attack during training.
Baklitskiy said that at this point, there could be accumulation of large-scale combat response conditions in Belarus, and that there is no indication of the event. Still, “When they’re exercising to fight, it always elicides concerns and always elicited negative reactions,” he said.
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Berlin’s Associated Press Writer Geir Moulson and Warsaw’s Claudia Ciobanu contributed.
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