This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a clear message to Ukraine and its European allies. Moscow has strong friends so you can continue.
Russian leaders, alongside shoulders at various events in China, allowed him to engage in a war with Ukraine for a long time and as fierce as he did.
In more than three years when Putin once thought it was a quick acquisition of his much smaller and weaker neighbor, Russia was unable to maintain the fight without Chinese and Indian money, Iranian weapons and, to a lesser extent, talent from North Korea.
However, messages from both the China-sponsored summit and military parades this week went far beyond the war in Ukraine.
Leaders gathered in China may disagree with everything. Some of them may not like each other very much. But they see a lifelong opportunity to end Western domination at the stage of the world. And Europe fears it will be on the fire line.
The event provided a visual reminder of why Europe must rethink its security. I agree with the fact that in recent years, if I try to isolate Russian leaders and starve the economy, the US could no longer be a ally they can turn to.
But there was Putin and he stood with some of the most powerful men in the world, reaffirming his friendship.
“Russia is trying to demonstrate that despite being isolated from the Western world, it still has partners and allies, an economically powerful country. And this isolation does not mean that the Russian economy will collapse or that Russia will not be able to sustain its war effort.”
The international orders set after the end of the Cold War are clearly at risk of clarification.
The United States is retreating from the global stage under President Donald Trump and his “America First” agenda. Meanwhile, Europe is fighting its own demons, including a surge in far-right nationalism and economic pressure.
Russia, China, India, and other countries who didn’t like the idea of the world ruled by the US suddenly saw the opening.
“The established control of the Western Alliance in international affairs is retreating, and they see an opportunity to seriously redesign the international system,” John Laff, head of foreign policy at the think tank at the new Eurasian Strategy Center, told CNN.
This week we bare these ambitions for everyone, including Trump, to see.
Trump received the message. “Please give my warm respect for Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Anne because you are conspiring against the United States,” he wrote in his message to XI.
Despite all the handhelds and smiles these days, analysts say that China and India’s approach to Russian war in Ukraine is dominated by pragmatism.
The two consistently profess their neutrality in the war, but at the same time they fuel it by providing Russia with a financial lifeline.
China and India were pleased to intervene when Ukraine’s western allies slapped sanctions against Russia’s oil, the key money supervisor in Moscow.
As a result, they get cheaper energy supplies, but experts say the relationship isn’t just about money.
Both China and India are willing to face direct conflict with the West, but are pleased to see Russia pushing for an anti-West agenda.
“China is much closer to Russia when it comes to reducing multipolarity and general Western influences. It has an ideological affinity and pure economic interest,” Seskulian said.
Raf said Russia’s push for the US-controlled world order also works well for the Indian narrative. “I don’t think Indians are complaining about watching Russia push this agenda to combat the global southern corner and ensure that the global system of governance is tailored to accommodate a large group of rising economies,” he told CNN.
Beijing and Delhi are now two biggest buyers in the world of Russian oil and coal, and China is also the second largest buyer of Russian gas and petroleum products.
Support goes beyond just oil. According to the US Treasury, both Chinese and Indian companies offer Russia the so-called double-use technology that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, such as chips and telecommunications equipment that Russia cannot obtain elsewhere due to Western sanctions.
“To make sure China is truly a very important supplier, we need to look at the number of Chinese components of Russian drones landing in Ukraine,” Lough added.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and its European allies are not willing to completely dismiss India and China. Because if everyone can put real pressure on Putin without the harsh actions from Trump, then it’s Beijing, and perhaps not so much, but probably New Delhi.
Meanwhile, North Korea and Iran stood firmly on Russia’s side. They are already sanctioned and isolated by the West over nuclear programs and other activities from the West, so they can hardly lose.
Iran was particularly useful for Moscow in the early months of the war, providing know-how on reducing the pain of sanctions, Raf said.
Importantly, Iran provided much-needed military hardware, including one weapon that has significantly changed the way Moscow fights in Ukraine.
The two countries have signed a new partnership agreement and have begun joint military training.
However, Tehran learned the difficult way that alliances with Russia have clear limitations.
President Putin did not come to Iranian aid when he was attacked by Israel and subsequently from the US. And although it went beyond providing a safe way to former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, who was previously a key ally for both Russia and Iran, Putin did not intervene when the Asssad regime overthrew in December.
For a North Korea isolated and impoverished, relations with Russia remain purely traded, Seskuria said. Russia needs men, and North Korea is probably the only country that can afford in a political sense to send itself to fight in a war marked by the very high casualty rates on the Russian side.
“They don’t have much to lose in the sense that there is no public opinion or resistance that they can go against Kim’s decision to send troops to Ukraine,” Seskuria said.
Putin, a warm welcome received in China, was designed to convey a message, coupled with what might be the military and diplomats on display during the summit and military parade.
“Here we have this symbol of a group of countries that are not best friends, but have a common strategic interest, can align and show that they are the forces they are considered to be in the United States and its allies,” Raff said.
“To say the least, this is unsettling and some people will say it’s bothering you, but do you have to ask how sustainable this is?” he said.
The shift in the Chinese event, represented, did not occur overnight. Europe may have been caught off guard when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but it has changed ever since.
Photo: China’s 80th Victory Day Parade
“We can now see some surprising changes in terms of what Europeans are made of, and in terms of European defence development,” Raff said.
Something that could not have been thought of a few years ago – it’s happening due to geopolitical changes that were on display this week, including Germany’s promotion of defense spending and joining the solidly neutral Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Putin’s foliarity with Xi and Modi may have caused some discomfort in many European capitals, but the group was tied together by a combination of needs, economic pragmatism and opportunities, analysts say.
“It’s a very functional relationship, and it’s not based on strong mutual love. It’s an alliance of interests, not an alliance of nations,” Raff said.
“We’re not at the stage where the game is coming all of a sudden, because there aren’t many leaders we don’t like to meet up for a big celebration,” he said.
