Qatar would have been allowed to consider it immune to Israeli attacks.
The small Gulf state is an important US ally that welcomed President Donald Trump just four months ago. A red carpet was laid, a billion dollar deal was made, and a controversial presidential aircraft was bequeathed.
Regarding his role as a mediator in ending the war in Gaza, Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman bin Jasim al Thani met personally with Hamas chief negotiator Khalil al Haya, to promote a new US-led ceasefire and hostage contract. Hamas’ response was expected at a follow-up meeting Tuesday evening. A few hours before that response, the Israeli Jets attacked a residential building in Doha, killing five Hamas members and Qatari guards.
A sense of shock and betrayal is evident in Qatar’s capital. The vocabulary used by the Qatar Prime Minister is strong, stimulating and awful from the departure from his usual constructed response to the constant twists and turns that are trying to end the 23-month war in Gaza.
In an interview with CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday, he described the attack as “national horror,” warning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “killed hope” for hostages, undermining the “opportunity for peace.” He also said he accused Israeli leaders of violating “all international law.”
A country with no diplomatic ties with Israel invited a delegation to indirectly negotiate with Hamas. The effort Doha thanked President Trump for saying he “brutally takes risks with us to mediate peace.”
Qatar is also believed to have been a hit on the US when Iran attacked Al-Udeid military base in June this year, the region’s largest US military facility. Tehran said it responds to a strike over our nuclear facility. Doha has issued a strong condemnation, but more.
The message taken from this strike does not end at Qatar’s borders. Gulf countries have been actively pivoting towards the United States politically and financially for decades, but they may now question the expected benefits of that choice.
The US security guarantee is implicit to transactions made and the memo has been signed. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates pledged to trade $3 trillion dollars during Trump’s May visit.
“You’ll wonder what these countries can do to stop future attacks,” said Ha Helier, a scholar at the Carnegie Fund for International Peace.
The damage to trust between the US and its Gulf partners has been done, but to what extent it is unclear and heavily relies on President Trump’s security to allies and the public message to Israel. The broader question is what disappointing effects this will have on future mediation efforts.
Qatar has not closed its doors to mediate the peace in Gaza, but at worst, it is lying in the embers of Israel’s recent assassination attempts, at best, in Limbo.
“This is not a risk that many countries in the region are willing to be angry in exchange for the role of mediation,” said Hasan Al Hasan, a senior fellow at Middle East Policy in the Institute for International Strategic Studies.
Qatar and Egypt have long been intermediaries between Israel and Hamas. Oman has facilitated consultations between Iran and the US and is working more successfully between the US and the Houtis. The United Arab Emirates facilitated the exchange of prisoners between Russia and Ukraine. Saudi Arabia has established itself as a venue for peace negotiations on several different conflicts.
All leaders of those countries are closely watching President Trump’s response in the face of what appears to be helpless America in the Middle East. And the belief long expressed by many in the region of Israel’s intention to thwart peace negotiations was only strengthened by the strike on Tuesday.
