There is no more blatant expression of unrestrained power than the abduction of a sitting president from the nation’s capital in the middle of the night.
President Donald Trump demonstrated in a 74-word social media post that he can act boldly, abruptly, and perhaps recklessly to pursue a variety of foreign policy goals with little regard for precedent, consequences, or even supposed international law.
The operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from a heavily guarded location in Caracas and possibly face the U.S. court system, while extreme, follows a predictable pattern of what the U.S. calls fugitives with a $50 million bounty on their heads.
However, there is an important exception here. Maduro is the head of state, and that nation is prey to various ongoing US political objectives. No matter what the indictment says, this will always feel political.
Successive White Houses have wanted to remove Venezuela’s leftist but authoritarian and sometimes violent regime, whether to fight drug trafficking, for oil or for regional cooperation.
President Trump’s second term promoted, as a key rationale, the end of President Maduro’s role as a central figure in the region’s vast drug-trafficking network. But they encountered contradictions when President Maduro signaled he would leave power. President Maduro cannot be both a champion and a man who can quickly retire from his role.
The evidence that Mr. Maduro is at the top of the regional tree was also less substantial than the White House had hoped. Yes, Venezuela definitely allows drug trafficking from its airspace and coast, and Colombia, the world’s top cocaine producer, is just across the border. However, while the Mexican and Colombian cartels were larger players, they did not seem to attract much US military attention. The very idea of ending this multi-billion industry in Venezuela, one that serves millions of Americans every week, is an unrealistic ambition. The incentives for traffickers are too great. They can wish for disruption and inconvenience, but they cannot stop it.
Deep at the heart of this extraordinary operation lies Washington’s broader ambitions to tighten its control near and abroad, what they call the latest Monroe Doctrine, with “Trump’s corollary,” citing the latest White House National Security Strategy. They have offered bailouts to liberal Argentine President Javier Millei, rebuked Colombia’s leftist leader Gustavo Petro, clashed with Brazil’s Lula and sided with El Salvador’s authoritarian Bukele. But Operation Caracas was not a rhetorical scorn, but rather a violent extraction of political irritant.
Venezuela’s flexibility is good for the U.S. hydrocarbon market, but oil is no longer the guiding force of foreign policy in the United States, which is now the top producer. This isn’t 2003. Venezuela’s resources will help, but they are not the golden talisman touted by opposition leader María Colina Machado.
The key and real “corollary” of President Trump’s actions is immigration. At least 700,000 Venezuelan immigrants remain in the United States despite recent moves to have their temporary protected status lifted. A stable, prosperous and peaceful Venezuela is a place to which they can return, either by force or voluntarily. But it’s a long way from that moment on Saturday morning.
As things stand, what happens next is very uncertain. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is likely to succeed President Maduro, but is she willing to endure a similar abduction risk or seek immediate de-escalation with the White House? On the streets of Venezuela, it is unclear whether this will ignite anti-American anger as the cost of the operation becomes clearer, or whether it will herald a day of celebration for the end of the dictatorship that brought the country’s economy into ruin.
One of the side effects is the impact this move has on President Trump’s position on the world stage as a vagrant, lacking conviction, focus, and the ability to absorb details (and keep secrets). The operation was bold and well-planned (in that it was successful), and for the second time this year showed that President Trump is willing to embrace ideas that his predecessor would have laughed off in the Situation Room. A similar out-of-scope request was to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, but so far Tehran’s plans appear to remain contained. To be sure, President Trump could act in ways that are reckless, unprecedented, and pose a frightening risk of escalation. But you can’t think that he lacks the courage to act, even if it feels reckless at the time.
This will send a message to Moscow and China, Maduro’s allies to varying degrees, that they have let their comrade fall without even a care package in the mail. President Trump is neither gun-shy nor unwilling to risk broader conflict if that outcome is one he truly desires or believes is within reach.
It also demonstrates the ongoing unparalleled superiority of the U.S. military, whether it is bin Laden in Abbottabad, Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul, or Maduro in his own capital. And Putin’s plan to decapitate the Ukrainian government was thwarted, an armored vehicle set ablaze and jammed in a log on the outskirts of Kiev, while Trump’s special forces took Maduro to court, possibly in New York. It will become clear in the coming months whether this operation will influence any calculations by Beijing regarding President Trump’s challenge over Taiwan. But they cannot expect Washington to sit by and wait for any invasion.
The exhilaration of bringing a dictator to justice will soon wear off, and the real, big problems that pervade Venezuelan life will once again loom large. Maduro’s resignation is a victory for Trump, but chaos and collapse in his wake would be a knock-on loss. Planning for “what’s next” is more important than the stunning display of American power in the skies over Caracas early Saturday morning.
Maduro’s removal will not give his successor a true national mandate. Or work out where the military’s loyalties now lie. Or to stop the drug-trafficking giant that the United States claims Maduro led. Instead, quick answers are needed about who will lead, fix an economy with persistent and horrifying flaws, and explain to Venezuelans the lasting benefits of the horrifying, hours-long explosion that young and old had to endure in the middle of the night.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
