In Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square, Donald Trump reigns supreme. A banner reading “We love Trump” expresses fervent gratitude to the US president. For the families of Israeli hostages abducted by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the crowds that supported their two-year struggle, the story is clear. With the return of the hostages imminent, President Trump has accomplished what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to do.
Or couldn’t.
For months, the accusations against the Israeli prime minister have been consistent. Families of the hostages and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political opponents believe that Netanyahu prolonged the war in Gaza for political survival. The military operation was meant to appease far-right coalition partners who want to expand Israel’s attacks on Gaza and dream of a complete reoccupation of the region.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu will not pay the political price of bringing back all the hostages,” opposition leader Yair Lapid charged in December.
But things changed dramatically when Trump returned to the White House in early 2025.
Prime Minister Netanyahu described Trump as Israel’s closest friend in the Oval Office. The prime minister has previously scored political points in feuds with democratic governments in the United States. He wouldn’t have the courage to do that to Trump. And Mr. Trump has used that influence as necessary.
In January, the US president put decisive pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept an agreement to return 30 living hostages and eight dead hostages. This was Joe Biden’s ceasefire plan, but Trump urged Netanyahu to accept it.
In June, during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, President Trump ordered Israel to halt impending airstrikes and posted an order on Truth Social to “bring the pilots home now.” The fighter jet circled in the air.
Last week, President Trump’s influence was again on display, forcing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to issue an unprecedented apology to Qatar for the attempted September 9 attack on Hamas leaders in Doha. The apology included a humiliating video of the call from the Oval Office, which was posted on social media for the world to see.
President Trump then announced an ambitious 20-point plan to end the war once and for all during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.
After Hamas said it was ready to negotiate, President Trump gave clear instructions to Israel to stop bombing the Gaza Strip, while deeming the US-designated terrorist organization “ready for lasting peace.”
It then sent special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to Cairo to secure a deal, eventually announcing on Wednesday night that “peace” was underway with all 48 remaining hostages scheduled to be released under the first phase of the deal.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly denied claims that he bowed to U.S. pressure. Gazan officials said he sought to frame the ceasefire agreement as a milestone in unprecedented strategic coordination and tout it as “one of our great achievements” in the two-year war that has left Gaza devastated and killed more than 67,000 people.
“Anyone who says this hostage deal was always on the table is simply not telling the truth,” he said in a televised statement Friday.
Contrary to previous demands by Hamas, President Trump’s plan would ensure that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would maintain a presence in about half of the enclaves in conflict. Prime Minister Netanyahu claims this as a victory: the hostages have returned, the IDF has maintained its position, and Hamas has been weakened.
However, it fell short of the “complete victory” that they had promised for two years. In the first phase, Hamas will be armed and operational, but disarmament and the ouster of its leaders are not guaranteed, leaving Gaza’s postwar governance undefined.
But the ceasefire may also have given the man cornered a way out of a protracted and unpopular war ahead of Israeli elections scheduled for next year.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the authors of President Trump’s 20-point proposal, two Israeli officials said.
These officials said that after Israel and Iran ended their brief war in June, President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed that “if Iran is attacked, Gaza must end.”
While negotiators headed to Doha for another failed round of talks, Netanyahu’s closest ally Ron Dermer worked alongside the Trump administration and Gulf states on what eventually became Trump’s cease-fire blueprint.
“There are a lot of traces of Mr. Dermer in the final plan,” one of the people said, acknowledging that in the final stages Trump imposed conditions that Netanyahu had to accept, including a possible transition to a Palestinian state.
Importantly, Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to have framed a deal that includes his favorite escape hatch. President Trump’s grand peace plan remains gradual and conditional, offering political latitude to Israeli leaders against a hard-line coalition.
Under the agreement, a complete IDF withdrawal is conditional on Hamas disarming, and while Prime Minister Netanyahu has argued that the deliberately vague trigger preserves Israel’s freedom to resume fighting, Hamas officials insist they have been assured by the United States that the war will not resume.
As veteran Israeli journalist Nahum Barnea wrote in Yedioth Aronos on Friday, the deal has “more holes than Swiss cheese” and “more willingness to agree than instructions to implement.”
It is this ambiguity that has kept Netanyahu’s coalition government intact, at least temporarily. Despite far-right threats to overthrow the government, right-wing ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have indicated they will remain, reassured by Netanyahu’s assurances that “the war is not over” and that Israel reserves the right to resume fighting if Hamas fails to disarm.
Prime Minister Netanyahu may have been cornered to end the war, but he has created enough space to insist it is not over yet.
His decision was also shaped by the looming political calendar. Israel’s next election is officially scheduled for October 2026, but it looks increasingly likely that it won’t be that long. “Prime Minister Netanyahu realized several months ago that the war had become a liability issue, and he did not want to go into an election with hostages being held, a daily reminder of the failure of October 7,” an Israeli source told CNN.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s main challenge in the next election is responsibility for Israel’s worst day in history, when 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 were abducted into Gaza. Two years ago, Netanyahu appeared to be politically dead, given the catastrophic failures that occurred on his watch. A majority of Israelis support his resignation, and weekly protests are calling for elections.
President Trump has handed Prime Minister Netanyahu a new narrative for political salvation.
Once the war ends, Israeli leaders will be relieved of daily headlines about IDF casualties, strained reserve forces, growing international isolation, and severe economic damage (the burden of campaigning). And as President Trump has repeatedly pointed out, ceasefires are extremely popular. Detailed polls have not yet been conducted on the electoral impact of the deal, but previous surveys have repeatedly shown that 60-70% of Israelis support it.
President Trump talked about his phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Wednesday, saying, “Bibi said, I can’t believe it. Now everyone likes me.” “More importantly, they started loving Israel again.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s election campaign is already taking shape. The war is over, the hostages have returned home, Iran and its proxies are deteriorating and will seek to increase regional normalization with President Trump on their side.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is acutely aware of President Trump’s popularity in Israel, which is far higher than his own, and sources say he intends to make him a central part of his campaign. In an unusual move, Netanyahu invited Kushner and Witkoff to Thursday’s Israeli Cabinet meeting, where a cease-fire agreement was approved.
President Trump himself will arrive in Israel next week to take part in the celebrations. Prime Minister Netanyahu is likely to ride Trump’s popularity headlong into the election, orchestrating every moment to maximize his political impact.
Pressure from the United States may have forced Prime Minister Netanyahu to accept terms he has been avoiding for months, but by creating a narrative of Trump as an Israel-loving messiah trader, Netanyahu will attempt to perform political alchemy and turn the deal into political gold. It also could serve as a distraction from the prime minister’s long-running corruption trial, which coincidentally President Trump is seeking to overturn.
The ultimate test of Israeli voters’ memory will be whether President Trump’s support can rewrite Netanyahu’s legacy as the prime minister who presided over Israel’s worst security failure and longest war.
