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Like the Hydra of Lerna in Greek mythology, a serpent-like monster that grows two new heads for every head it cuts off, organized crime in Latin America is proving difficult to defeat with the kind of decapitation tactics apparently favored by President Donald Trump.
Every time a drug lord falls, several others aspire to succeed him.
A case in point was the case last month when Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” was fatally wounded in a Mexican military operation supported by U.S. intelligence.
His death sparked violent retaliation across Mexico, resulting in 60 deaths and raising the possibility of a power struggle within his powerful Jalisco New Generation cartel, known by its Spanish acronym CJNG, the government said.
On March 7, President Trump convened a gathering at his golf club in Doral, Florida, dubbed the “Shield of the Americas Summit,” in which more than a dozen Latin American leaders agreed to form a “military coalition” against organized crime. In his address to attendees, President Trump referred to this as a “coalition to eliminate cartels.” (Not invited to the event were the presidents of Colombia and Mexico, two countries with decades-long conflicts with cartels and through which drug trafficking routes pass.)
inheritance and fragmentation
But analysts interviewed by CNN agreed that cutting off the heads of criminal organizations is unlikely to end the drug trafficking problem. In addition to the existence of candidates to replace ousted leaders, disputes over succession often lead to divisions and violent struggles, complicating a state’s ability to respond.
“Where there are many groups competing for territory or for business, violence intensifies and autonomous organizations begin to form. This is the most dangerous thing,” explains sociologist and crime expert Marcelo Bergmann. “These groups end up fighting among themselves, carrying out executions and extortion, and causing panic in society.”
This occurs not only with Mexican cartels, but also with criminal organizations in several countries in the region. “A very notorious case is the one in Ecuador, where several gangs are fighting for control of a route, apparently to traffic cocaine that leaves Colombia, enters Ecuador, goes through the Pacific Ocean to Mexico, and then to the United States,” Bergman said.
Last year, the nonprofit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Monitoring Group (ACLED) ranked Ecuador among the 10 most violent countries in the world, with a large proportion of the population at risk from organized crime. Just one example of this situation is the recent discovery of five human heads on the coast of Puerto López in the province of Manabí.
But Ecuador is not the only country to feature in this infamous ranking. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Latin America and the Caribbean accounts for just 9% of the world’s population, yet accounts for almost a third of the world’s murders, with 40% of deaths linked to organized crime and gangs.
Diversification and utilization of technology
Another nonprofit organization, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC), reports that criminal groups are diversifying away from drug trafficking and into illegal gold mining, human trafficking, extortion and money laundering.
In the case of El Mencho, for example, the CJNG under his command expanded into mining, avocado cultivation, and even the hotel industry.
Felipe Botero Escobar, director of GI-TOC’s Andean regional office, said technology is facilitating the diversification and criminal activities of cartels. He cited drones, artificial intelligence for cyber attacks and human trafficking, and the use of social media to recruit young people.
Botero-Escobar said many of the region’s criminal organizations are increasingly “moving across borders,” which “makes it even more difficult to disrupt and dismantle them.”
The GI-TOC report notes that the Balkan mafia, Colombian armed groups and Mexican cartels are allied with local gangs.
Two Brazilian criminal organizations, the First Capital Command (PCC) and the Red Command (CV), have expanded into Peru and Bolivia, adding new areas of coca cultivation and expanding their trafficking routes.
Where borders are porous, such as the 364-mile (586 km) border zone between Colombia and Ecuador with more than 70 irregularities, criminal gangs control the area on behalf of the state, according to GI-TOC.
Second, organized crime tends to influence state institutions. El Mencho, for example, served as a police officer in Jalisco in the 1990s after being convicted in the United States for conspiracy to distribute heroin in California.
“There are also strong dynamics of corruption in our region, which fosters the growth and expansion of organized crime,” Botero-Escobar said.
All reports and experts reviewed agree on important points. Most of Latin America’s prisons are centers for the creation of criminal groups. An example is Torren de Aragua, Venezuela’s most powerful criminal organization. Its base was originally located in Tokoron Prison. Brazil’s Red Command and First Capital Command, and Ecuador’s Los Choneros and Los Lobos. All of these groups were founded or strengthened within prisons and may even operate their businesses behind bars.
As a result, the area became the scene of numerous massacres and prison riots. “Prisons have played and continue to play an important role in group integration. This is a very complex problem that is largely unaddressed,” sociologist Bergman said.
The GI-TOC report details prison overcrowding in all Latin American countries except Suriname. “This speaks a little bit about the inability of the state to control its prison system. And in the face of this vacuum, it is criminal groups that control and use prisons as a mechanism for recruitment and protected activities,” said Botero Escobar of GI-TOC.
Latin American countries, which do not usually appear in criminal violence rankings, may be considered an exception. However, the GI-TOC report shows warning signs for the Southern Cone, noting that “both Chile and Argentina are approaching high-crime thresholds.”
Another area of concern in the region is Costa Rica, a country once known as the “Switzerland” of Central America. In recent years, it has begun to establish itself as an important route for drug trafficking.
GI-TOC notes that a combination of geopolitical changes such as China’s growing influence, withdrawal of U.S. aid (for example in Colombia), regulatory gaps, economic instability, and tightening immigration policies are further complicating the situation.
But all is not lost against this thousand-headed hydra. “There’s a lot of focus on how to strengthen the police and the military, but we don’t pay attention to how to fight corruption, which is one of the main factors that is facilitating the emergence of these criminal groups,” Botero-Escobar said. He suggests focusing on reducing the presence of criminals embedded in the state and justice system.
US and Ecuador begin anti-drug trafficking operation
Another aspect that GI-TOC experts consider fundamental to crime reduction is efficient border management.
“There is another issue that we have identified at the global level that is very relevant to our region, and that is the role of smuggling,” Botero Escobar said. “Our measurements show that areas with high smuggling typically also have higher averages for other criminal markets. Why is this important? Because smuggling can be a very good way to complete or shut down these criminal ecosystems.”
Bergman, a sociologist and crime expert, pointed to another issue often missing from proposals to combat organized crime: demand reduction.
“I’m referring to the past 50 years of history,” he said. “How much have we done as a society, how much have we invested in prosecution and reducing the supply of drugs? Yet the drugs are still there, production continues to increase, consumption continues to increase,” he pointed out.
“If a business is profitable, it’s very difficult to dismantle it.”
In Greek mythology, it was Hercules who managed to put an end to the Hydra. Rather than do it alone, he enlists the help of his nephew Iolaus and comes up with the idea of cauterizing the head wound cut off by the hero to prevent new wounds from growing. The last head of the beast is buried under a rock.
In the real world, many countries in Latin America are still waiting for solutions, like Iolaus’ method, that will help cauterize the wound and stop the spread of organized crime. Will they succeed?
