Now that a tentative ceasefire is in place, investors are hoping that first-quarter results will help move stock markets past the Iran war. Stocks soared this week after President Trump halted attacks on Iran for two weeks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1,300 points on Wednesday, its best day since April 2025 (stocks hit bottom last year as Trump softened his stance on tariffs). Throughout the war, investors had bet on the continuation of the stock litigation, optimistic that a quick resolution would help companies weather the soaring energy prices. The earnings background continues to be strong. Fiscal policy supports consumer spending. Even the outlook for interest rates brightened this week, with federal funds futures suddenly pricing in at least one rate cut by the end of the year. With the ceasefire in place, the first quarterly earnings season, which begins next week led by the nation’s biggest banks, could be the trigger for stock prices to get back on track to end the year on a higher note. But while many strategists still expect at least modest progress, investors are wary of a minefield of risks. “This year’s earnings season will be the first opportunity to really set the bar, hear directly from companies, and test whether the current energy crisis and conflict have not yet had a significant impact on company fundamentals.” Belton added: “If that view is validated and the outlook for an end to the conflict continues, there is no reason why stocks cannot return to the trajectory they were on before the incident began.” 2026 .DJI YTD Mountain Dow Average Stock Price That view has helped limit stock market losses since the war began in February. By Friday, prices had returned to levels at the start of the war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now little changed since the start of the year after suffering a 10% correction about two weeks ago. It remains 5% below its all-time high reached on February 10th. The S&P 500 index is also little changed since the start of the year, remaining less than 3% below its all-time high from late January. Earnings Expectations The first quarter earnings season is expected to see strong earnings growth, according to all forecasts. S&P 500 companies are expected to grow 12.5% in the first quarter, the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, according to FactSet. Nine of the 11 sectors are expected to increase profits year-on-year. However, most of the growth is expected to come from information technology, with a 44% jump expected, highlighting the importance of this sector in the market, according to FactSet. But apart from technology and materials, expectations for the rest of the market are modest at best. In one red flag from Delta Air Lines this week, CEO Ed Bastian said the airline would “significantly scale back” its near-term capacity expansion plans, citing rising jet fuel costs. Many advisers are advising caution, arguing that the instability caused by the war between the US and Iran is not over yet, but that a strong earnings season could bring investors the good news they missed for six weeks. “If we see a easing of tensions in the Middle East, I think there’s a chance for the market to recover,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. The major banks will begin their earnings season next week, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America all reporting at once. Netflix, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson are other notable companies scheduled to report results. Week Ahead Calendar All Time (ET). Monday, April 13th 10am Existing Home Sales (March) Revenues: Goldman Sachs Group Tuesday, April 14th 6am NFIB Small Business Index (March) 8:15am ADP Weekly Employment Change (03/28) 8:30am Producer Price Index (March) Revenues: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock Wednesday, April 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (March) 8:30 a.m. Empire State Index (April) 10:00 a.m. NAHB Housing Market Index (April) Earnings: JB Hunt Transport Services , Morgan Stanley , Bank of America , The PNC Financial Services Group , M&T Bank , Progressive Thursday, April 16 8:30 am Initial Billing (04/11) 8:30 am Philadelphia Fed Index (April) 9:15 am Capacity Utilization (March) 9:15 am Industrial Production (March) Revenues: Netflix, Prologis, Abbott Laboratories, The Travelers Cos., US Bancorp, KeyCorp, The Bank of New York Mellon, Citizens Financial Group, PepsiCo, Charles Schwab, Marsh & McLennan Friday April 17 Revenue: State Street, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, Trust Financial.
