Nvidia’s stock price started the new year flat as Wall Street skeptics continue to increase their confidence in the company’s stock, ignoring a series of positive developments that advise investors with or without a position. The latest information was released early Thursday morning, with Bloomberg reporting that China is indeed planning to allow imports of Nvidia’s artificial intelligence H200 chip. To avoid ongoing trade uncertainty between the world’s two largest economies, Nvidia has revised its payment terms for Chinese buyers, including requiring upfront payments, prohibiting cancellations and prohibiting changes to system configurations after an order has been placed, Reuters reported. Despite this news, Nvidia stock fell more than 2.5%. Jim Cramer, at Thursday morning’s meeting, blamed the decline on the simple fact that the stock price has risen more than 10% since its mid-December lows. The United States had previously restricted exports of advanced AI chips due to national security concerns about China’s potential military use of the world’s most advanced AI hardware. That said, the new Vera Rubin platform announced earlier this week means the H200 is two generations behind what American companies have access to. Some industry observers have expressed concern that China is providing too much raw computing, even if less capable, to China, arguing that what ultimately matters is collective computing rather than providing the latest and greatest. Time will tell whether the move to allow more chip exports to China is the right one from a national security perspective, but the news points to an upward revision to Nvidia’s earnings forecast. This is because sales to China, which management has consistently excluded from earnings forecasts, now have to be factored in by analysts. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s talk Monday night at the Consumer Electronics Show included the reveal that Rubin is in full production, but also a number of other bullish statements about the partnership and highlighting the company’s role in self-driving cars, robotics, and physical AI. Jensen also said that advances in AI will require replacing about $10 trillion worth of traditional computing infrastructure. During JPMorgan’s fireside chat at CES the next day, CFO Colette Kress said the company’s $500 billion revenue outlook for calendar years 2025 and 2026, announced in October, was “definitely bigger.” She said: “We’re taking orders for Vera Rubin and we’re increasingly focused in terms of spending a whole year figuring out what you need in terms of Vera Rubin. So we’re in a great position to get a better understanding.” What this means for Nvidia investors is clear. Despite a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion, this stock still has a lot of growth ahead of it. It wasn’t until the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 that the world outside of Silicon Valley really woke up to advances in AI. ChatGPT’s creator, OpenAI, quickly emerged as a generative AI (artificial intelligence that creates things) company. Since then, privately held OpenAI has grown to a reported $850 billion valuation. Nvidia played a key role in the ChatGPT story as its powerful chips train and run models. Beyond chatbots, we are looking forward to what Jensen described as physical AI. This is where things really start to feel like science fiction. Physical AI is AI that understands and follows the laws of physics. This means that not only can it be used for realistic simulations in virtual environments, but it can also be used as the kind of AI needed to understand how cars and robots can and should behave in the real world, without the need for expensive prototyping or how factories work, by using digital twins to run tests before actually building something. So with Rubin’s ramp on track for sales later this year and China on the rise again, the natural question investors are asking is: Is it time to buy Nvidia stock? Those who already have a position will probably hold off on buying at this point. That’s because, other than the upcoming earnings announcement, scheduled for late afternoon on February 25th, there’s no real trigger to think a rally in stock prices is imminent. We see the potential for the stock price to rise further, but there is no event horizon that would tell us that existing shareholders should take on more exposure here and now. NVDA 5Y Mountain Nvidia 5 Years On the other hand, for those without an existing position, this is an attractive level to start a small position, leaving plenty of room to buy further if we see any weakness from here. At $185, the stock trades at less than 25 times forward earnings, not including the upside from China’s H200 approval. This is an 11-turn discount to the five-year average forward valuation and near the lower end of the past 10-year range. This is even more attractive considering that analysts expect earnings to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% over the next three years. This corresponds to a growth-adjusted PEG ratio of less than 1, which we consider very attractive. PEG is calculated by taking the forward P/E and dividing it by the growth forecast. On valuation alone, the stock is attractive given its expected growth over the next few years. From a technical perspective, this is also an interesting setup, as the stock has been consolidating for over five months, trading above its 50-day moving average in the final week of 2025. Of course, the consolidation could suffer a downside, but given all the positive fundamental reasons, I’d bet that the next significant move is to the upside. In that scenario, we would be looking for a rally to its historical high near $212, or an increase of nearly 15% from its current position. That being said, if we fall further, the next level for those looking to enter or build a position would be around $167, the bottom of this five-month consolidation range. Conclusion For those already using Nvidia, there’s no need to rush. Let’s see how things play out as we approach the company’s fiscal 2026 Q4 earnings release. But for those who don’t have a position yet, we think now is a good time to start one. Make sure you are well positioned to prevent FOMO and fear of missing out if the stock price goes up, and leave room to add to and reduce your overall cost base if the stock price goes down. A price move below $170 is an area where we expect more support for the stock, similar to what the stock has seen over the past five months. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA. See here for a complete list of stocks.) 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