Tokyo
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The ruling Japanese party is in trouble, and that knows it.
The country is full of political instability, and has circulated four prime ministers over the past five years. This is all members of the Liberal Democrats (LDP).
And although the LDP has been in almost continuous control of Japan for the past 30 years, it is in a volatile position as it prepares to vote for the new party leader on Saturday. They fell into scandal, were widely unpopular and instead flocked to new right-wing parties.
The next party leader could have become the country’s next prime minister, but still not guaranteed. Voters have made clear responsibilities in the last two parliamentary elections, delivering seats to the opposition and stripping the majority of the LDP.
Major Japanese neighbors, especially China, are looking closely to see who will be on top.
Japan’s political volatility began after Shinzobe resigned as prime minister in 2020.
Since his tenure ended, LDP has faced a fallout against slash fund scandals, surges in inflation and right-leaning political changes across the country.
This election is what the LDP wants. The front runners all offer another way. The first is a veteran operator and a government bureaucrat. Another potentially becoming Japan’s youngest postwar prime minister is billing himself as a moderate reformer. The third is a fire brand conservative who could become the country’s first female leader.
“The Japanese research lecturer specializing in politics at Kanda International Studies University in Chiba,” said Jeffrey Hall.
“In the past, voters often overlooked the scandal, but now I think they’re very tired of it. And the alternatives offered by other Conservatives have been more appealing to voters,” he added.
This frustration is evident among the public, and when CNN spoke to them on the streets earlier this week, few people expressed election optimism or excitement. While most people refused to share their names, one office worker described the LDP as lacking transparency and accountability, a 60-year-old expert from Tokyo’s Ginza district called all candidates “weak.”
One of the financial workers in Tokyo’s Loppongi district was scathing.
“Ultimately, looking at the current LDP leadership elections, there’s no fundamental change. They don’t say anything meaningful,” he said.
“That makes you wonder, ‘Are there any decent people left?” This guy, that guy… they’re all the same. ”
One of the biggest drivers of the LDP’s downfall was a fundraising scandal that included millions of dollars in undocumented political funds in late 2023, with lawmakers allegedly not lining up their pockets with kickbacks or properly declaring their income.
Despite some efforts in damage control, the party “has not done anything important to change the way it is done, but has not significantly punished politicians involved in these scandals,” Hall said.
The public’s sentiment was already sour as inflation and cost of living rose sharply. For example, the cost of Japan’s major staple foods – has almost doubled since last year, and it remains stubbornly high after authorities release emergency reserves and imports foreign rice.
Voters also tend to be nationalists and conservatives during economic recessions, said Hajime Kidera, a professor at Meiji University’s Faculty of Political Science and Economics. “He effectively exploited those frustrations. In other words, the feelings of people who take pride in being Japanese but struggled with everyday life,” Kidera said.
“The same is said for Germany, the UK and other developed countries,” he added. And that may be why many in Japan are now drawn to more conservative candidates like Abe.
Another issue that has attracted national attention was the increase in the number of foreign residents and visitors, which has promoted widespread anti-foreigner sentiment, which sometimes turns completely xenophobic. Many argue that Japan is at risk of losing its way of life, or that Japanese workers are being removed from their jobs.
“It has become a very important issue in the Japanese landscape,” says Saint Island, a professor of political science at Josey University. “You had the new and correct populist movement in Europe and the US. The same thing is slowly happening in Japan.”
Some young far-right parties are taking advantage of this shift. Sanceit, a fast-growing right-wing populist party, for example, won a massive victory in the July Congressional election, winning 14 seats in the Senate after Trump’s message, “Japan’s first.”
Sanseito started out as an online group and its YouTube channel has over 500,000 subscribers. Their success also reflects the changes in Japan that have made it into a “digital society” in recent years, Shiratori said.
The LDP is currently under intense pressure to regain right-wing voters. In the ongoing campaign, most candidates promise to tighten immigrants, but painfully do not alienate the medium portion of the base.
Nishimura Lintaro, a Tokyo-based senior associate of Asia Group, a consulting company, said:
“Now, LDP is focusing solely on self-preservation and doesn’t seem to have a sense of direction,” Nishimura added.
Many candidates are running, but the focus is mainly on three front runners.
According to some polls, the most popular so far was the former, a sample of the former Minister of Economic Security. If she wins this weekend and gets nominated for Prime Minister, she could be the first female leader in a country where men historically dominate politics as much as the boardroom.
But she is the deepest and most conservative of this bunch. This could be just as vigilant as some of the party, especially some of their neighbors in China and South Korea. She is a hawkish on security and diplomacy, is conservative on social issues and is keen to increase government spending to stimulate economic growth (in the continuation of former leader Abe’s policies).
Kochi compared herself to Margaret Thatcher, the first woman to become British prime minister, but some skeptics see her as “something like Liztruss, which could damage the economy.”
If she wins, it could signal a “attempt to return to the conservative Abe era” and try to regain right-wing voters, Nishikata said. And, like Abe, Kochi regularly visits controversial war shrines that contain the names of convicted war criminals who are considered symbols of Japanese imperial militarism in the early 20th century.
Within the LDP there may be greater support for Agriculture Minister Ono Jiro. At the age of 44, he was able to become Japan’s youngest prime minister since the end of World War II. He is the son of former Prime Minister junichiro and is the fourth generation of a political dynasty.
He is considered a younger, more moderate voice. It vows to wipe out politics and start debates over constitutional reform, allowing married couples to use different surnames that are currently prohibited by law. (Kochi opposed the changes in the law.)
Koizumi is also friendly with the Central Right Japan innovation party, also known as Ishin, who holds a significant number of seats in the parliament, Hall said. Therefore, if he wins, the LDP may win valuable partners in law and winning elections.
“Oyamamura’s victory would suggest that the LDP believes he represents the party’s ‘rebirth’ and will be able to attract a younger generation of voters in future elections,” Nishimura said.
Finally, there is Yoshimasa, Prime Minister Yoshimasa. That current role is extremely important as a government top spokesman. He has served as a variety of ministers in defense, diplomacy, agriculture and more, and is one of the most experienced figures, with a reputation as a “handyman” sought in times of crisis.
He is not as colorful as the other two candidates, but he is considered a stable presence that brings much needed stability to the party. And he may have the advantage of working with international partners as a Harvard-educated fluent English speaker who once served as a US representative and staff member of the US Senate.
But for anyone who wins, securing party leadership is just the first step, and many problems await them.
As the LDP is currently losing control of a majority of Congress, there is no guarantee that its candidate will be chosen as prime minister. It still has a good shot, as the opposition is currently divided and cannot form a unified front, experts say, but it is no longer certain as in the past.
“There’s a great story about the expansion of the Union government. They might put another opposition party in that LDP Comate Coalition and bring back the majority of Congress, so they might put another opposition party,” Shiratori said. “So one of the questions is who can build good relationships with one of the opposition parties.”
According to Hall, given the division between LDP conservatives and moderates, elected candidates could also face opposition and internal conflict from within their party.
After that, there is actually a real job of governing the world’s fourth largest economy, and the future prime minister has inherited the slate of troublesome issues. The most pressing inflation is inflation, but there is also a demographic crisis in Japan, with a rapidly aging population, a declining birth rate, a shrinking workforce, and an increase in the costs of care and welfare for the elderly.
There is also the issue of managing President Donald Trump’s relationship with the US administration and reaffirming Japan’s existence on the global stage.
“It seems there’s no chance that anyone who becomes prime minister will suddenly refresh the LDP and become an emotional party with voters returning,” Hall said.
“It’s really hard to see Japan have stable leadership.”
