Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party appears to have a majority in snap poll: NHK

According to NHK’s initial forecast, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is likely to consolidate its majority in the House of Representatives, with the Liberal Democratic Party winning between 274 and 328 of the 465 seats.

This is roughly in line with opinion poll predictions, with Nikkei Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun predicting that the Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, Japan Restoration Party, would secure more than 300 seats in the House of Representatives.

NHK predicted the coalition government would win up to 366 seats.

In some parts of the country, people trudged through heavy snow to vote.

Before the dissolution of parliament, the LDP-JIP coalition held a total of 230 seats, and three independent members voted for the LDP, effectively giving the ruling coalition a one-seat majority in the chamber.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader, dissolved the House of Representatives on January 23, in an apparent attempt to use her high approval ratings to quickly strengthen the ruling party’s position in the chamber.

“Takaichi now has the Liberal Democratic Party and the technocrats exactly where she always wanted them,” economist Jesper Cole said in a post on Substack.

“The Liberal Democratic Party is now beholden to her, and the elite technocrats know she will be in power for at least a few more years…so they have no choice but to invest their careers in her success,” Koll added.

An opinion poll compiled by Japanese media outlet Nippon.com showed that although Takaichi’s approval ratings have fallen slightly in recent weeks, he remains popular ahead of the election.

According to the same report, there was only one domestic opinion poll in January that showed support of 70% or more, but in December there were three polls and six polls showed support in the 60% range, an increase from four in the previous month.

On the other hand, the Chuo Shinsei-kon, which is made up of the former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, a former coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party, is likely to win between 37 and 91 seats.

Before merging with Komeito, the Constitutional Democratic Party held 148 seats, and Komeito held 24 seats, making it the largest opposition party.

The election took place amid rising tensions between Japan and China and persistent concerns about the weakening yen and inflation at home.

Japan has endured 45 consecutive months of inflation above the Bank of Japan’s target, falling real wages and a persistently weak yen.

The most recent inflation rate was 2.1%, while full-year inflation reached 3.2%. Real wages will decrease year-on-year for 11 consecutive months in 2025, and on an annual basis, real wages have been decreasing every year since 2022.

In 2026, the yen depreciated further, and at one point approached the 160 yen level to the dollar. While a weaker currency benefited exporters, it also increased import inflation.

Takaichi had previously proposed a record $783 billion budget for next fiscal year, which starts April 1, on top of the $135 billion stimulus package introduced last year to help households struggling with rising costs of living.

“Look for more state-led efforts to use the $550 billion U.S.-Japan investment agreement to create ‘national champions’ that create a sense of urgency among reluctant CEOs,” Coll said. “Japan’s M&A boom will further accelerate, creating larger economies of scale and, in turn, more reliable international competitiveness. All this will be done in the name of greater national economic security.”

–Azhar Sukri contributed to this article