As a wave of protests tests the Iranian regime’s ability to manage dissent, the countries with arguably the most to gain remain reluctant to intervene, waiting behind the scenes even when its regional adversaries are at their most vulnerable in years.
Israel, which has publicly threatened Iran for months, has remained silent, watching the protests unfold and giving US President Donald Trump leeway to make his own decisions about whether to take action.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held several security talks regarding the situation in Iran in recent days, sources said. But the longtime leader, who launched a surprise attack on Iran last summer, has instructed his ministers to avoid speaking publicly about the country.
At the beginning of the protests, Science Minister Gila Gamliel posted a selfie on X wearing a “Make Iran Great Again” hat, tagged Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch, and posted a video message of support for the protesters. The prime minister’s office has advised ministers to remain silent at least twice since then, according to people familiar with the matter.
Speaking at the weekly government meeting on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said only that Israel was “closely monitoring” events in Iran and supported the protesters’ “struggle for freedom.” There were no threats directed at Tehran or the country’s supreme leader.
“The overall instruction is to remain silent,” an Israeli official told CNN. “Our understanding is that if we touch it, we are only interfering with it.”
The protests began two weeks ago over rampant inflation but quickly turned into widespread demonstrations against the Iranian regime, spreading to more than 180 cities and towns across the country. The government has accused the United States and Israel of stirring up unrest and is trying to divert attention from the root causes of the protests.
For Israel to intervene now, it risks giving Iran exactly what it needs most: the ability to deflect blame from its ongoing domestic problems and focus attention on foreign adversaries.
“From an Israeli perspective, now is not the right time to intervene,” a former senior Israeli security official told CNN. “There is no reason to disrupt the weakness within the regime or give it an excuse to rally domestic support.”
But despite politicians’ public silence, the drama unfolding in Iran’s streets has dominated Israeli news coverage for the past two weeks, renewing fears about potential escalation shaped by memories of Iran’s ballistic missile attacks during the 12-day war in June.
Municipalities in central Israel informed their citizens that shelters were open as a precaution, but the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) moved to downplay concerns about an impending attack. “There have been a lot of rumors circulating in recent days in light of the situation in Iran,” said IDF spokesman Brigadier General John Brig. Gen. Effie Deflin, writing for X on Monday, reiterated the military’s position. “Protests in Iran are a domestic matter. We continue to assess the situation and will provide updates if there are any changes.”
The mayor of Ramat Gan, a city in central Israel, addressed the public’s uncertainty on Facebook. “This situation does not depend on us, it depends on what happens in Iran or on President Trump’s mind,” Mayor Carmel Shama wrote. “We wish the Iranian people the best of luck. Their success in gaining freedom is also our success.”
But protests in Iran are complicating some of Israel’s military plans. Netanyahu’s government has become increasingly concerned about Iran’s ballistic missile activity and what it sees as Iran’s efforts to rearm Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Israeli sources said that operations that had been discussed to counter this were currently under review. One Israeli official who spoke to CNN said Israel was looking at the situation from a “defensive and reactive approach.”
“Any military operation could give the Iranian government an excuse to divert attention from the domestic turmoil and increase the risk of miscalculation,” a former security official told CNN.
Sima Shine, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former head of research and evaluation at the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, said the protests had effectively put “on hold” Israeli plans to attack Iran again. From the moment the U.S. announced its support for the protests, Shine said, “It’s understandable that Israel would want the U.S. to take the lead. There is little reason for Israel to intervene while President Trump himself evaluates his options and plans his next actions.”
But that could change if President Trump decides to take military action against Iran, Shine said. “The scenario is primarily that Iran decides to retaliate against Israel, as it has threatened to do in response to possible U.S. action.”
