As violent protests enter their third week and push Iran to the precipice of change, the country’s theocratic government is trying to survive by cracking down on growing demonstrations.
Iran’s ruling clerics have survived many large-scale protests in the past. But the long-term government is now facing increasing pressure as a growing opposition movement demands substantive changes.
The protests initially focused on economic grievances, but have since evolved into a broader movement against the regime that has ruled Iran for decades.
“There is systemic misgovernance, corruption and repression. This is why people want the Islamic Republic to disappear,” Holly Dougless, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, told CNN.
US President Donald Trump has added his own voice of warning to Iran’s leadership as the regime faces growing internal challenges from enraged protesters.
President Trump has repeatedly expressed support for the protests and has even floated the idea of regime change in the country, which has long been an enemy of the United States.
“Iran is looking at freedom more than perhaps ever before,” President Trump posted on social media on Saturday. “America is ready to help!!!”
The president is considering a range of potential military options in Iran but has not yet made a final decision on what form U.S. intervention would take, a U.S. official told CNN.
“It looks like people were killed who shouldn’t have been killed,” President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One Sunday night. “If you call them leaders, they are violent. I don’t know if their leaders just rule by violence, but we are looking at this issue very seriously.”
“The military is looking at it, we’re looking at some very strong options, and we’re going to make a decision,” Trump said.
But some analysts warn that the impact of U.S. military intervention could be limited.
“The system is fragile but brutally intact,” Dr HA Hellyer, a senior associate research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told CNN.
Iran has experienced years of waves of protests that have resulted in little social and political change. But now anger is rising as a rebellious Iranian population grows increasingly weary and impatient.
Since coming to power in 1989, a decade after a massive revolution ousted the US-backed authoritarian Shah of Iran from power and ushered in the Islamic Republic, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has overcome a series of political and security challenges.
Although Khamenei maintains the support of some supporters and state institutions, his repressive policies are losing popular support.
Dissatisfaction with Iran’s sluggish economy has worsened. Iran continues to face tough international sanctions, including the reimposition of so-called “snapback” sanctions related to its nuclear program.
Leaders of countries that have imposed sanctions often say the measures are aimed at putting pressure on Iran’s government and leaders.
But researchers say Western sanctions are also paralyzing Iran’s middle class, the basis of the country’s reform movement, which sees little opportunity for economic growth.
At the same time, Iran’s leadership is in a vulnerable state, with several points of its influence neutralized.
The Israeli strikes have weakened Iran’s regional armed proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, while the U.S. strikes have seriously damaged the country’s nuclear program, which the government has spent billions of dollars developing.
With the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Iran also lost an important ally.
These developments have created an “unsustainable situation for the Islamic Republic,” Dagres said.
“Right now, they’re approaching these foreign and domestic issues with historically high levels of anti-establishment sentiment, and it’s not going to go away until this regime goes away,” Dougless added.
Amid the turmoil, the regime turned to a familiar strategy of quashing dissent.
Iranian human rights groups reported that security forces violently cracked down on the protests, arresting thousands and killing hundreds.
Iran has also implemented widespread internet and phone blackouts during the protests, limiting access to the situation on the ground.
With few options left, the regime is working to shore up support.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called on his country’s citizens not to join what he called “rioters and terrorists” taking part in demonstrations across the country.
Pezeshkian blamed the violence on “terrorists” with ties to foreign countries, saying they were burning down bazaars, mosques and cultural sites.
“If the public has concerns, it is our duty to resolve those concerns, but our higher duty is not to allow a group of rioters to come and disrupt the whole society,” he said in a televised address on Saturday.
State television broadcast footage of regime supporters marching in some cities.
The government on Monday called for nationwide demonstrations in support of the regime and against what authorities called recent desecrations and insults against Islamic symbols, including the Koran, by protesters.
But a tough response to protests could leave the regime vulnerable to strong reactions from the United States and its allies.
Earlier this month, President Trump warned that the United States would be “locked and loaded” if Iran killed peaceful protesters.
Recent U.S. actions in Venezuela and the killing of Qasem Soleimani, the commander in chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards during President Trump’s first term, are forcing Iran to seriously consider the threat posed by President Trump, Ali Baez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran project, told CNN.
But if Iranians become more defiant as they march across the country, they could pose a greater existential threat to the regime.
“They believe that at least having control over their streets is essential to their survival, even if it invites a U.S. attack,” Baez said.
But Hellyer pointed out that for now, Iran’s strong security establishment remains intact.
“So far, there has been no serious elite or security defection. And absent that, any intervention from the United States is likely to be of little practical use in the short to medium term.”
“Of course, the hollowing out is quite advanced. There are serious economic challenges, if not complete collapse. Of course there is a very broad protest coalition, but it (the regime) is united, very cohesive and held together by very coercive force,” Hellyer said.
The reformist-led government sought to ease the economic pressure by providing direct cash transfers of about $7 per month.
Some officials also took a conciliatory attitude toward the unrest.
Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni said security forces were showing “the utmost restraint” but acknowledged there were “some deficiencies”.
He also told state television that a “better economic future” awaits Iranians.
In televised remarks Sunday, Mr. Pezeshkian told protesters that the government “must listen to your protests and address your concerns.”
Opposition parties, which have been fervently demanding a change of government, may decide that now is the ripe time for such a push, as the leadership appears vulnerable to outside pressure.
