New data on the shadow fleet shows that an increasing number of tankers are changing their registered flag to Russia and seeking Moscow’s protection.
This trend was further accelerated by the US seizure of a ship carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil.
President Donald Trump has said that US oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela’s energy sector after the overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro. Chevron, ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil are reportedly scheduled to meet with the Trump administration later this week. President Trump also said that big oil companies “will be reimbursed by us or through our revenue.”
“Over the past month, we have seen an acceleration in the transition of vessels to the Russian flag,” said Richard Mead, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List. “In the past few weeks alone, 17 Shadow Fleet tankers have changed their fraudulent flag to the Russian flag.”
One of the latest high-profile sanctioned vessels to be newly registered under the Russian flag is the Bela 1. The tanker stopped on its way to Venezuela to load crude oil subject to U.S. sanctions on Dec. 20.
Meanwhile, Vera 1 was registered with an incorrect Guyanese flag. Russia notified the United States on Dec. 31 that it had changed the ship’s name to Marinella and changed its registration to Russia, according to Lloyd’s List. The ship left the Caribbean.
The vessel is currently near Iceland on its way to Russia, according to Automatic Identification System data tracked by Lloyd’s List (real-time information sent by the vessel).
“This mid-voyage flag change appears to be an attempt by the ship’s operator to seek protection from U.S. boarding and seizure,” Meade said.
A Lloyd’s List investigation found that four days after Marinella’s reflagging, another sanctioned ship was reflagged under Russia.
The ship, now called Hyperion, was originally a U.S.-licensed tanker that flew Russian naphtha under a false flag in December into Venezuela’s Amuay Gulf. Naphtha is a key ingredient in diluting thick Venezuelan crude oil so it can flow through pipelines for export. Hyperion was also able to leave Venezuela without being subject to a U.S. blockade.
“There is no question that the Venezuela risk will accelerate the uptake of Russian shadow fleet vessels,” Meade said.
“All of this points to a more permanent evolution of the shadow fleet, with direct oversight and protection from Moscow,” he said.
“But what remains to be seen is how far Russia is willing to go to protect these vessels, all of which operate in sanctions trade,” Meade said.
“We are now waiting to see whether the United States is prepared to directly challenge Russia by intercepting Russian-flagged tankers,” he said.
Not all of the newly Russian-flagged tankers were able to leave Venezuela.
The Premier was reshipped from Gambia to Russia on December 22, but remains empty outside the Jose terminal in Venezuela, according to Lloyd’s List ship tracking.
“Intelligence sources indicate that several other vessels currently attempting to leave Venezuela are similarly using fraudulent flags and may have followed other vessels in registering to Russian flags in order to continue trading,” Meade said.
More than 40 Shadow Fleet ships have been registered with the Russian flag since June, according to Lloyd’s List.
“The Shadow Fleet is very flexible,” Meade said. “Ships that were engaged in the Venezuelan trade will likely now move to the Iranian or Russian trade. We have a supply of vessels that can switch between these trades.”
More than 12% of the world’s tanker fleet is currently operated by shadow fleets, according to Lloyd’s List data.
“Dozens of Shadow Fleet tankers, many marked with completely fraudulent ship registries, routinely pass under the noses of NATO as they enter and exit the Baltic Sea,” Meade said.
“Similar to the disruption of trade routes in the Red Sea, it will take time to replace ships,” Mead said. “At some point, we’ll see how the shadow fleet reorganizes as a result of this U.S. enforcement action in Venezuela. We’ll see more of these vessels heading into Russian and Iranian trade.”
Meade said many of the tankers that switch flags to Russia are empty at the time of the switch, suggesting they are seeking protection from Russia before their next loading operation.
Ship tracking by energy consulting firm Kpler shows changes in trade between Russia and Venezuela. Since late November, multiple Russian-origin naphtha cargoes have been diverted, wandered into Venezuelan waters, or reversed course.
Shadow fleet tankers operate in disregard of established insurance policies.
“There is no evidence that many of these vessels are insured,” Meade said. “This is all untested. If there was a major spill on one of these very old ships, there’s no way to know who would pay for the cleanup.”
