Beirut
—
Lebanon is now on the brink of becoming fully engulfed in the escalating US-Israel war against Iran, as Israel intensifies its operations against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. The fragile Lebanese government was desperate to avoid this fate.
Israel’s seizure of more territory in southern Lebanon is accompanied by a surge in violence, including airstrikes, and follows Hezbollah’s decision to seek revenge for the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Early Monday morning, Lebanese militias fired missiles and a “swarm of drones” at an Israeli military base near Haifa. This is the first cross-border attack since late 2024.
The attack appears to be aimed at demonstrating how the group, once a reliable and powerful proxy for the Islamic Republic, remains capable and willing to attack on Tehran’s behalf.
Further drone attacks continued “in response to Israel’s criminal aggression targeting dozens of cities and towns in Lebanon,” Hezbollah said in a statement, which said it targeted radar sites and control rooms at Israeli air force bases in northern Israel.
But Hezbollah, once heavily armed and seen as a strong deterrent against direct confrontation with Iran, now has little vestige of its former strength.
After years of relentless Israeli attacks, its most senior leaders have been assassinated, its strongholds in southern Lebanon have been overrun, and its formidable missile arsenal has been depleted.
The group also faces growing political pressure within Lebanon.
Following retaliatory attacks for Khamenei’s death, the Lebanese government formally outlawed Hezbollah’s military activities in an effort to deter further Israeli retaliation. This is a symbolic but potentially dangerous move that could increase tensions between the Lebanese army and militias.
“We will not allow our country to be dragged into a new adventure and will take all necessary measures to stop those responsible and protect the Lebanese people,” Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said in a post on X on Monday.
Israel appears to be trying to take advantage of this unstable situation.
In the tense Lebanese capital of Beirut, Israeli surveillance drones fly overhead and red tracer grenades light up the night sky, warning residents of a possible attack.
The already war-torn city has been badly damaged in recent days by multiple Israeli airstrikes targeting Beirut’s southern suburbs, a stronghold of Hezbollah. Israel said the latest attack in the city hit a Hezbollah headquarters and weapons storage facility.
And Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Lebanon has once again come under fire from across the Israeli border, leaving dozens dead and injured and thousands fleeing their homes to avoid the line of fire.
Meanwhile, Israel has amassed tens of thousands of reservists deployed near the Lebanese border, raising speculation that it may move deeper into the ground to push back or end Iranian-backed militias altogether.
At a press conference Tuesday morning, IDF spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani stressed that the move is not the beginning of a large-scale ground invasion of Lebanon. “Our presence is limited to defensive positions near the border to prevent attacks on Israeli civilians and secure important strategic points,” Shoshani said. “This is not an operation or a large-scale operation. It is a tactical measure to ensure security and prevent infiltration attempts.”
Hezbollah’s apparent predicament contributes to the vulnerability of its Iranian sponsor. Without a strong Lebanese proxy, one of the key deterrents to direct confrontation between Israel and Iran has been removed.
And, like Iran, Hezbollah appears to be targeted now not because it poses a powerful and intolerable threat, but because it is in a uniquely weakened state.
