The war with Iran will continue to be a major driver of market movements over the coming week as investors look forward to a resolution to the conflict. But it will also affect the market in other ways. On Friday, we will get our first look at how the war-related rise in oil prices is showing up in inflation data. The end of the war will likely mean a rock bottom for the stock market, but even if Thursday’s choppy trading ended on a positive note with the S&P 500 slightly higher, we should avoid getting too bullish too soon. A war isn’t over until it’s over, and the situation can change not just from day to day, but from moment to moment. The Trump administration may say it expects the war to end within a few weeks, but ending the war will require cooperation from both sides. In fact, the fighting got even more intense this weekend. As long as missiles and drones continue to fly and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, things could spiral out of control. 1. Oil Prices: One of the big lessons of last week was that oil trends were telling the truth. Indeed, short covering likely had something to do with the size of the pullback on Tuesday and Wednesday. But now the oil market is like the sun, around which the stock market revolves. Just as it was true that stock prices should fall when oil prices rose early in the war, it is equally true that stock prices should rebound as oil prices fell, as they did on Tuesday and Wednesday. Admittedly, Thursday’s session was a bit of an anomaly to this inverse relationship between oil and stocks. That remains the main conclusion. If the war does indeed end soon, it seems fair to think that oil prices will fall further, which would increase confidence that stocks have reached a buyable bottom. You need to be careful here. There are mixed messages from Washington and Tehran, and a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or partially closed despite a declared end to the war needs to be considered. President Donald Trump has suggested the conflict could end without key shipping lanes being opened. That idea has disappeared, but with oil prices falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, stopping the missiles may be the most important thing for energy markets. Nevertheless, if the war is “over” and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still at least partially curtailed, it is hard to imagine that there will not be a geopolitical premium priced into oil, perhaps because Iran collects tolls for boats passing through. In that scenario, oil at $150 to $200 a barrel is probably unthinkable, but a return to lows in the $60 range soon seems unrealistic. We’ve talked at length about the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy and corporate profits, so investors will no doubt welcome an end to the war, but until we see further easing in oil prices, it’s hard to say that everything is resolved and that new highs are just around the corner. As a result, stock markets are expected to remain volatile next week as new information about the Iran war continues to be released. On Friday, a US fighter jet was shot down in Iran. And in an expletive-filled social media post on Sunday, President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully opened by Tuesday. But our job as long-term investors is to cut through the noise in the headlines to determine what dynamics will have a lasting impact on the companies we invest in. Of course, oil prices are one example. 2. Inflation Data: Another oil-related trend of great importance is inflation. This will lead to next week’s macroeconomic update. These will provide the latest data that the Federal Reserve can use to determine the future direction of overnight lending rates. It also gives bond markets new information to consider about the long end of the yield curve (such as 10-year Treasuries), where interest rates affect things like mortgages and auto loans much more. The long end is primarily driven by traders’ expectations for inflation, economic growth, and fiscal policy. At the short end of the curve are bonds such as two-year Treasury bonds that are more sensitive to Fed policy. The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain price stability and maximum employment. Good news arrived on the labor market front on Friday, with the March employment report coming in much better than expected. Now, with two inflation reports, the spotlight shifts to the price stability front. The big update will come on Friday, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be released. This is the highest priority report of the week as it reflects the start of the war with Iran. As of Thursday, economists expected both the composite index and the core index (excluding food and energy) to rise 2.7% from a year ago, according to FactSet. In February, the headline CPI rose at an annual rate of 2.4%, and the core CPI rose by 2.5%. Personal consumption expenditure and income reports for February are scheduled to be released the morning before the CPI. This is typically the most important announcement of the week because it includes the Fed’s recommended inflation measure known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. But Thursday’s PCE index will cover February’s data as the government continues to work to get economic updates back on track after the government shutdown late last year. This would cover a month when oil prices were still trading in the low to mid-$60s per barrel, a slightly older level compared to March’s CPI. However, it is not useless data. Rather, think of it as providing an important baseline of how consumer purchasing power was sought before the outbreak of war. Economists expect core PCE (excluding food and energy) to rise 3%, according to FactSet on Thursday. In addition to the latest inflation information, the Supply Management Institute’s March Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released on Monday, which will also check trends in the services sector. Final figures for gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be released on Thursday. And on Friday, February factory orders will be announced and an update on manufacturing activity will be released. These aren’t market-moving releases in and of themselves, especially as wars cloud the outlook, but rather think of them as individual pixels that help you understand the overall picture of the economy. 3. Earnings: The earnings calendar for the coming week is thin (no club names), but there are three notable reports to keep an eye on. The main one is Delta Air Lines, reported Wednesday morning. Delta Air Lines, and the airline industry as a whole, is uniquely affected by oil prices, as oil prices are one of the largest operating costs for airlines, along with labor costs. “Based on our annual consumption of approximately 4 billion gallons of jet fuel, a 1 cent per gallon increase in the cost of jet fuel would result in an increase in annual fuel costs of approximately $40 million,” Delta Air Lines revealed in its most recent annual report. In other words, it is the product that determines their performance. Of course, Delta will also provide insight into consumers’ willingness to travel in the face of these rising fuel costs (and the resulting rise in ticket costs). There is one thing to note. Delta tends to serve high-end consumers who can book travel in response to price increases. CEO Ed Bastian said in an appearance on CNBC two weeks ago, “We live at the very top of the ‘K’ that people talk about, the very top of the ‘K’.” Over 90% of our revenue comes from there. The people in that group want to travel. ” At the time, he indicated that Delta’s bookings remained strong, so we’ll be waiting to hear if there’s a change in management’s tone or outlook on Wednesday. Even if Delta Air Lines reports that its wealthy customers are still buying expensive tickets, remember that this will be reflected in future inflation reports. This is an important thing to keep in mind when interpreting inflation data. To be sure, the Fed prefers to consider a core inflation index that excludes energy costs, but energy-related costs that are passed on to consumers (in this case through higher ticket prices) will certainly be included in the calculation of other items. That’s never good for the economy. And it’s bad for the economy, too, if rising prices are causing customers to shy away from flying. There are two additional reports that provide insight into the state of consumer spending. First up will be denim brand Levi Strauss on Tuesday night, followed by Modelo brewery Constellation Brands on Wednesday night. 1 Week Ahead Monday, April 6th 10am ET: ISM Services PMI Tuesday, April 7th After the Bell: Levi Strauss (LEVI) Wednesday, April 8th 2pm ET: March Federal Reserve Board Minutes Before the Bell: Delta Air Lines (DAL), RPM International (RPM) After the Bell: Constellation Brands (STZ) Thursday, April 9th 8:30am ET: Fourth Quarter GDP (Final) 8:30 a.m. ET: New Unemployment Insurance Claims 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal Expenditures and Income Reports Before the Bell: BlackBerry (BB), Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Friday, April 10, 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI 10 a.m. ET: Factory Orders (see complete list here) Jim Cramer Charitable Trust Stock. ) As a subscriber to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investment Club, you will receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. 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