The stock market has been hit hard by the Iran war and will enter next week feeling hurt. Over the next few days, weary investors will also have to contend with several revenue losers, including new employment figures and the club’s name, Nike. Conflicts in the Middle East will continue to be a major driver of market action. Let’s dig in and take a closer look at other important events on our radar. 1. Work, work, work: It can be a volatile week. Investors will be sitting on the edge of their seats watching all the headlines about Iran as they wait for the non-farm payrolls numbers to drop before Friday’s bell. The question everyone is trying to answer: Was the loss of 92,000 jobs in February just a blip, or the beginning of something more sinister, like stagflation?Stagflation is a term used to describe an environment in which inflation rises as unemployment rises. This move is a real problem for the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Picking up inflation means central banks need to raise interest rates. But rising job losses mean interest rate cuts are needed to stimulate growth. Nothing is more prone to inflation than oil. Because oil means unavoidable high input costs. As long as the Iran war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly. This means that inflation risks are real, as are broader risks to economic growth. Not a very good combination for stocks. Besides war, another factor pervading the market is the disruption caused by the introduction of artificial intelligence. Investors remain nervous about the potential negative side effects of AI, as Friday’s software sell-off due to reports about Anthropic’s new Mythos model showed. As investors scrutinize the jobs report over the coming week, the goal is to gain at least some clarity about the economy’s trajectory and the Fed’s next move. Labor market updates begin on Tuesday with the release of February’s jobs and turnover survey. The so-called JOLTS report will be followed by the March ADP private payroll report on Wednesday morning, followed by the regular weekly unemployment claims report on Thursday. The main event, of course, is Friday’s aforementioned March non-farm payrolls report. Please note: The US stock market is closed on Friday for Good Friday, so you won’t be able to see traders’ real-time reactions to the data. JOLTS is important because it provides insight into the tightness of the labor market by analyzing job openings, hiring rates, and turnover rates. Usually given lower priority than ADP data or government employment reports. Plus, JOLTS has another month in the rearview mirror (which means February, not March). Please take this with a bit of a grain of salt. But this time it may help us understand what exactly happened to the job market in February that led to the loss of 92,000 jobs. The second most important piece of employment data is the payroll company ADP’s employment survey. Unlike the JOLTS report, this study reports actual employment changes by sector and company size. Although ADP is not a perfect substitute for official government reports, it is often used to predict what will happen on Friday morning. This is where the nonfarm payrolls report, perhaps the most important monthly economic release, will be released. Disappointing data from February made this update even more urgent. As of Sunday, economists polled by FactSet expected the economy to add 60,000 jobs in March. Ideally, employment growth at least meets expectations. But in this moment of stagflation, any additional amount would definitely be a win. That would give the Fed a little more leeway to wait and see how the Middle East conflict plays out. Another thing to note is the revision of the February data as the Labor Department takes into account delays in survey responses. 2. Other economic data: Outside of employment, you will receive two consumer checks. First, on Tuesday morning, the Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence Index will be released. The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its February retail sales report the next day, and economists expect it to show a 0.5% increase from the previous month, according to FactSet data on Sunday. On Wednesday, the Supply Management Association will release its March manufacturing economy index, which will also focus on the state of manufacturing activity. ISM’s manufacturing PMI for February was 52.4, almost unchanged from the previous month, indicating moderate expansion. The consensus for March is 52.3, according to FactSet. Finally, on Friday, ISM’s monthly survey of service activity will be released, with economists expecting a slight decline from February (56.1 to 54.8), according to FactSet. 3. Nike Earnings: The only club name to be reported in the coming week is Nike on Tuesday night. We don’t have high expectations for this quarter, especially for our struggling China business. The company’s previous earnings report showed a 17% sales decline so flagrant that the market didn’t care about the North American buds. At the very least, expect to see more momentum in North America, the initial focus of CEO Elliot Hill’s turnaround efforts. Sales in the market rose 9% last quarter, better than expected, and profitability rebounded slightly despite tariff pressure. Shares are limping, down 17% since the outbreak of war, according to Tuesday’s report. Investors are understandably concerned that stagflation is a one-two punch to consumer spending. Unfortunately, Nike cannot open the Strait of Hormuz itself, so it will be paying close attention to what it can control: its own costs. The more efficient a company is now, the better positioned it is to recover profits when business conditions improve. We remain confident in Mr. Hill, who will become CEO in late 2024. But we have enough stock for now. We accepted this position believing that the rebuild could take up to a year. Autumn is a year. If it hasn’t changed by then, you have no choice but to launch that name and free up space for something of higher quality. 1 Week Ago Monday, March 30 After the Bell: ARKO (ARKO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Tuesday, March 31 10 a.m. ET: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS Report 10 a.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey. Before the bell: McCormick (MKC), FactSet (FDS), TD SYNNEX (SNX) After the bell: Nike (NKE), nCino (NCNO) Allied Gold (AAUC), Dave & Busters (PLAY), PVH (PVH) Wednesday, April 1, 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP Employment Survey 8:30 a.m. ET: Commerce Department Retail Sales Report 10 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI Before the Bell: Lamb Weston (LW), Conagra (CAG) Thursday, April 2, 8:30 a.m. ET: Department of Labor New Unemployment Insurance Claims After the Bell: Acquity (AYI) Friday, April 3 U.S. Stock Markets Closed for Good Friday 8:30 a.m. ET: Bureau of Labor Statistics Nonfarm Payroll Report 10am ET: ISM Services PMI (The Jim Cramer Charitable Trust is long NKE. See here for a complete list of stocks.) As a subscriber to Jim Cramer’s CNBC Investment Club, you’ll receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. After Jim sends a trade alert, he waits 45 minutes before buying or selling stocks in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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