For decades, wealthy Gulf Arab countries have held positions as an oras of stability in conflict-engaged regions, building a sparkling capital with a rapidly growing economy driven by millions of foreign workers attracted by economic opportunities and tax-free lifestyles.
However, their sense of security was shattered this year when the forces of the two regions first hit a direct strike in the Gulf country. First, Iran targeted a US air force base in Qatar in June after the US struck a nuclear facility. Then, an Israeli attack occurred this week, targeting Hamas political leadership in Doha.
The Arab Gulf countries are rattling as the Gaza War, which began thousands of miles from the border approaching their homes almost two years ago.
With few viable military options to retaliate, Qatar has pledged a “collective” regional response to Israeli strikes. The response is now under “consultation and discussion” with other partners, Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdullan al-Thani told CNN’s Becky Anderson on Wednesday. A decision is expected at the Arab and Islamic summit in Doha this weekend.
Perhaps the most visible immediate response came from the Gulf state, which has the closest ties to Israel. It’s the United Arab Emirates. UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan arrived in Doha with a large delegation within 24 hours of the attack. Qatar was the first stop on a Gulf tour to coordinate its response to the attacks that took him to Bahrain and Oman. On Friday, the UAE summoned Israeli diplomats and denounced what was called “blatant and coronavirus” attacks.
Regional analysts told CNN that Gulf Arab countries will demonstrate regional unification and stop further Israeli strikes, but are likely to consider options that may be constrained by limited viable options.
Badar al-Saif, assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, said, “We must stand now if we don’t become the other Gulf capitals now.”
Analysts say one option could be that the UAE could downgrade diplomatic ties with Israel or reduce its involvement in the Abraham Agreement. This is a regularization agreement between Israel and the three Arab countries, which became President Donald Trump’s biggest foreign policy achievement during his first term.
The United Arab Emirates were dissatisfied with Israel even before the strike against Doha. This week, UAE official Lana Nusseibeh warned that he reported that Israel’s plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank would be a “red line” that “betrays the very spirit of the Abrahamic atmosphere.”
Qatar’s prime minister said part of Doha’s response lies in the legal realm, including international law. On Thursday, it successfully made a unanimous statement at the UN Security Council, denounced Israel’s attacks.
Hasan Al Hasan, a senior fellow at Middle East Policy in Bahrain’s Institute for International Strategic Studies, said that the Gulf countries had previously not participated in large numbers in lawsuits against Israel in international courts, which could change.
“To date, the Gulf countries have not played a key role in supporting these efforts, either politically or financially. The Gulf countries have been able to decide to gather on these cases,” he said.
Another option is for Qatar to withdraw from its role as a mediator between the US and some of its enemies, analysts say.
The Gulf countries have had important internal arguments for many years, but are bound by mutual defense treaties signed decades ago.
Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, said Gulf Arab countries could rely on the revitalization and expansion of the Peninsula Shield Force, a 1980s military agreement aimed at blocking attacks on the country.
“These clauses have been theoretical so far,” says Alhasan, but “now they can be activated by creating a unified Gulf Command, integrating air and missile defense systems and building more independent and original capabilities.”
Most of the seven Gulf countries rely on US military hardware and host American bases, but they may be perceived as being perceived as defending recent American territory.
Sager said the Israeli attack will have led the Gulf region to “enter a serious and structured dialogue” with the Trump administration over the terms of the security partnership, and simply purchasing weapons from the US will be “around the sidelines” towards clearer defense guarantees. These could include accountability when “commitment appears lacking or ambiguous.”
Still, efforts to find regional consensus may be limited by competing among Gulf countries that remain vigilant to endanger relations with the US under Israeli largest backer, Trump administration.
“The Gulf countries now recognize that national security with Israel is based on a defense partnership with the United States, and therefore are not particularly equipped to address the threats they pose.
The trillions of dollars of revenue earned annually from the region’s oil and gas exports are strategically invested in global assets that partially utilize the region’s soft power to ensure influence at major global decision-making centers.
Gulf countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates were able to use the funds of vast sovereign wealth to impose trade restrictions on Israel.
“They were able to use the funds to decide to boycott companies that have large investments in the Israeli economy,” says Alhasan.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar collectively pledged to invest around $3 trillion in the US economy when Trump visited the region on his first foreign trip abroad during his second term as president.
“These signs that Gulf countries are pumping into the US over the next decade assume a safe and secure Gulf space that can also benefit from these investments,” Al Shayf said.
“But if you’re feeling the unease that’s happening thanks to American allies like Israel, the money can go somewhere to secure the Gulf better or get a better return on your investment.”
