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A huge real estate sign along Vespucio Sul Avenue, one of the main thoroughfares in Santiago, Chile, advertises a new apartment complex with “green space, barbecue space, and pet-friendly areas.” The trend towards pet space as a key selling point in real estate for couples is spreading across the region, with similar signs likely to be seen in Bogotá, Rio de Janeiro and other major Latin American cities.
A nail salon in one of Mexico City’s most exclusive neighborhoods is selling gel manicures for the same price as what nearby pet groomers are offering as “premium petunia baths.” Price may have been the focus years ago, but now it makes sense. Dogs are increasingly becoming the center of family life. In the Argentine city of Buenos Aires, there are already more dogs than children. The same goes for Quito, Ecuador.
The increasing humanization of pets in Latin American and Caribbean households is perhaps the clearest sign of a new generational shift. Motherhood is no longer an expected role and birth rates are declining at an unprecedented pace.
This data comes from the latest demographic observatory by ECLAC (United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean), which focuses on declining birth rates. Latin America currently has an average of 1.8 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 children needed to maintain a stable population. Compare this to the 1950s, when women in Latin America had an average of 5.8 children.
Simone Cecchini, director of ECLAC’s Demographic Center for Latin America and the Caribbean, told CNN that change is much faster than in Europe. “This is even higher than the United Nations predicted 20 years ago.”
“According to our estimates, the total population of Latin America and the Caribbean will increase until 2053, after which it will start to decline on average,” Cecchini said. This is already happening in some countries and regions, with Cuba and Uruguay experiencing population declines, as well as several Caribbean islands.
Every morning on her way to Chile’s Pontifical Catholic University, sociologist Martina Yopo Díaz looks at the sign for the Vespucio Sur residence and feels it shows that “children, and reproduction in a broader sense, occupy an increasingly marginal place in the life plans of young people.”
From a demographic perspective, a birth rate of less than 1.3 children per woman is considered extremely low. According to ECLAC data, Chile’s child birth rate has fallen to 1.1 children per woman, the lowest in Latin America and among the lowest in the world. Costa Rica (1.32), Uruguay (1.39) and Argentina (1.5) are not far behind, while several Caribbean countries are also at very low levels.
A key change is the decline in teenage pregnancies, which Yopo Díaz describes as a “multiple cause phenomenon.”
“In Chile, teen pregnancy rates have fallen by nearly 80% over the past decade, a public health outcome associated with policies that promote reproductive autonomy and greater access to contraception,” she explains.
Similar trends are occurring across Latin America. According to ECLAC, in 2014 there were 70 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19, but this number has fallen to around 50 in 2024.
Still, teen pregnancy rates in Latin America and the Caribbean remain higher than in any other region of the world except Africa.
In regions where inequality is significant, lower fertility rates do not affect all groups equally. Cecchini said research shows that low-income women tend to have more children than they would like, while higher-income women tend to have fewer children than they would like.
The gap between the two groups may also widen, as motherhood is likely to be a barrier to employment for women from low-income families who are less able to afford childcare.
Education also plays a role, with more educated women tending to have fewer children. According to Our World in Data, in 1990 Mexican women had an average of 3.4 children and 6.4 years of schooling. By 2020, 1.9 children were born with more than 10 years of schooling. Similar trends can be seen in countries such as Colombia and Brazil.
As Cecchini says, “Women’s labor force participation, gender inequality, and fertility form a very complex relationship.”
Experts tend to be cautious. Globally, countries with pro-fertility policies such as bonuses and generous parental leave have seen only modest or temporary increases at best.
“In Europe, these policies often push the age at which women have children earlier,” Cecchini says.
This is not important because delaying child rearing tends to affect the number of children a mother has. But as Yopo Díaz points out, “some people don’t want to have children, regardless of the policy.”
What policymakers can do, she argues, is make life easier for people who want to become parents but feel they don’t have the money, time or stability.
Instead of worrying about how many children are being born, she suggests focusing on building a society in which “the decision to have children is not a burden for certain groups, especially women.”
Decreasing birth rates and increasing life expectancy will result in an aging population, which will put a strain on economic growth, health care, and welfare systems because fewer working-age people will need to support the growing number of retirees with taxes.
This is a visible change in daily life.
Yopo Díaz said there was growing discussion in Chile about closing maternity wards due to decreased demand. In Argentina, headlines report school closures due to declining enrollment.
A report by Argentinos por la Educación estimates that by 2030, school enrollment across the country could decline by 27%. In Uruguay, official statistics show that the number of students between the ages of 3 and 17 is 15% lower than 30 years ago, and projections are on the decline. At the regional level, there will be 1.2 million fewer births between 2015 and 2023, and by 2030 there will be 11.5 million fewer school-age children and teenagers than in 2020, according to data from UNESCO and the International Institute for Educational Planning.
Some see it as a problem, while others see it as an opportunity. While some experts worry that an aging population is accumulating economic problems, others say there could be unexpected benefits. For example, fewer children would allow governments and families to invest more per student, they say.
Still, most experts agree that society must recognize the complexity of the situation if it is to develop effective policies.
They say the decline in birth rates is due to a multilayered web of factors, including health and education policies, economic disparities, new expectations between men and women, and a cultural climate in which “having children” is no longer a must-check.
