China’s imports of U.S. soybeans show little sign of recovering as Beijing’s stockpile swells to its highest level in years, undermining U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims that a recent trade truce will spur major new purchases by China. China, the world’s biggest consumer of soybeans, has an oversupply after months of aggressive stockpiling, which analysts say allowed Beijing to delay a purchase agreement even as both sides touted improved relations. A U.S. Department of Agriculture report released last Friday said China has purchased U.S. soybeans just twice since the summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, totaling 332,000 tons from Oct. 2 to Nov. 12, far short of the 12 million tons the White House announced China had agreed to buy by the end of the year. “Historically, promises made by the Chinese government to U.S. presidents have had short expiration dates, and President Xi’s promise to Mr. Trump on soybean purchases is likely to be the same,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a policy research firm. Sobolik added that China “will proceed slowly with soybean purchases to entice the Trump administration into protracted negotiations” to freeze competitive actions by the Trump administration, adding that Beijing is likely to vary its soybean import volumes depending on the geopolitical temperature. The White House said last month that it would fall short of the 26.8 million tonnes China bought last year under a comprehensive bilateral agreement, but China has remained conspicuously silent on that target and said China’s short-term import appetite remained weak. National stockpiles at Chinese ports reached 10.3 million tonnes, also the highest since 2017, while China’s raw soybean processors, pig farmers and feed producers have built up inventories above typical levels, according to Sublime China Information data cited by Reuters. Soybean imports continued to rise in October, rising 17.2% to 9.48 million tonnes last month, up 6.4% year-on-year, according to China’s official customs data, according to estimates from grain exporters group Anec last month. ING’s head of global markets, Chris Turner, said that even after China lowered retaliatory tariffs earlier this month, “China buying some soybean cargoes from the U.S. doesn’t make much sense for Brazil,” since South American supplies are typically cheaper than U.S. shipments. China has again increased its soybean purchases from Brazil, citing three anonymous traders who said Chinese buyers had booked as South American countries lowered prices ahead of lower U.S. import duties. 10 cargoes in December and another 10 cargoes from March to July Industry officials said there was little evidence of a large-scale purchasing program by Chinese state-owned grain importers such as COFCO and Sinograin, which are likely to handle the bulk of the promised purchases. “There is little indication that these state-owned buyers are committed to plans to buy 120,000 tonnes towards the end of this year, much less an additional 250,000 tonnes in calendar year 2026.” “The clock continues to tick, but so far there is little sign of it happening,” Suderman, chief commodity economist at Stone According to state media reports, China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chengang, made a separate diplomatic stance in which he vowed to create a favorable environment for agricultural trade cooperation, saying, “Given the great potential for the future, it will contribute positively to global food security and shared prosperity.”More recently, Bloomberg reported that China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans are unstable. Amid prolonged trade tensions with the US, China did not participate in this year’s US fall harvest, but Reuters reported in late October that COFCO had ordered three cargoes of US soybeans ahead of a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping. China is selling $12.6 billion in legumes to China in 2024, and the economic slowdown is putting a financial strain on U.S. farmers. President Trump called the suspension an “economically hostile” move. Soybeans as a bargaining chip “Beijing is likely to change its soybean imports depending on the geopolitical temperature, increasing when relations are good and decreasing when relations are deteriorating,” he said, noting that imports of the U.S. crop remain a “bargaining chip” for China to use soybeans as leverage in a broader trade dispute with the U.S., putting pressure on U.S. farmers who form an important voting bloc. The relationship between President Trump and the Republican Party, which cut agricultural imports in retaliation for U.S. tariffs and export restrictions during Trump’s first term, led his administration to negotiate a deal to buy $200 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. Brazil is expected to produce another record crop next year, which could put further pressure on prices for U.S. farmers, but comes with risks for China, including potentially higher costs, longer shipping distances and greater exposure to China. For now, China appears focused on keeping costs low and supplies stable despite unsettled weather in Brazil and Argentina, but soybeans piled up at Chinese ports tell a different story for U.S. farmers who are hoping the recent trade truce will allow the Chinese market to reopen soon.
