Sao Paulo (AP) – Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro It was not present in the room when the Supreme Court panel was Convicted and sentenced him to prison for 27 years and three months. On the crime of attempting a coup.
Bolsonaro and House arrest and poor healthhis lawyer says the former leader was so sick that he couldn’t attend the final hearing. But despite his frailty and his beliefs, Bolsonaro’s political influence certainly endures.
Even after his sentence, public opinion is divided on whether he should commit a crime and go to prison. Experts agree that far-right politicians will continue to have a major impact on the political landscape of the Latin American giants, but they do exist.
“We may probably see something relatively new in Brazilian politics. Public figures under house arrest, public figures who cannot formally participate in politics due to beliefs and ineligibility, but still have an impact on the course of politics,” anthropologist Isabela Khalil is a research group based in the state of Minas Galeis.
A divided society
Four days before his belief, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters I took him to the streets of Brazil independence day. Among them was Louis Niemeyer, a 62-year-old businessman from Rio de Janeiro. He sees the former president as the “hero” who built an unstoppable political movement.
“Ideals are not killed, ideals are not arrested,” he said. “You can arrest Bolsonaro, you can kill Bolsonaro, but these ideals will not die.”
Opinion polls show that Bolsonaro still exists at the centre Brazil’s Polarized landscape. Even behind the bar he was able to decide who was carrying his Union flag to the 2026 election. Observers say to be a competitive competitor President Luis Inacio Lula da Silvathose expected to run for re-election, opposition candidates must first ensure the important election foundation and explicit support of far-right leader Bolsonaro.
Recent polls suggest that Lula will regain his popularity and become a competitive candidate in the next election.
However, a poll released by Atlasintel on August 28 shows Lula in a statistical connection with Bolsonaro in a virtual election scenario if the election was held by the same 2022 candidates as it was then by vote. In the first round scenario, Bolsonaro has 45.4% of the votes, while Lula has 44.6%. The vote surveyed 6,238 voters online from August 20th to 25th, 2025. The margin of error is 1 percentage point.
The country is also divided over Bolsonaro’s conviction. A DataFoha poll from August showed that 48% of Brazilians wanted Bolsonaro to be jailed, while 46% wanted him to remain free. The two percentage point error survey was conducted directly with over 2,000 people in 130 municipalities.
“When I ask people if they think Bolsonaro is weakened, my answer is that it depends on the perspective,” said Khalil of the Extreme Right Observatory Group.
“If you think January 8th happened, all of this happened, but he still has a base and continues to shape the directions in the right and right directions, so I don’t think it’s a sign of a weakness,” she said, referring to the 2023 episode. Bolsonaro supporters raided a public building in Brasilia What the prosecutor’s office saw as part of his plan to maintain power after his defeat.
Still recognized as a leader
Evangelical pastor and one of Bolsonaro’s most influential allies, Cyrus Malafire reflects his belief that the former president is a key political figure despite legal issues.
“No one will leave him and leave him, whether he is in prison or not,” he said in late August before preaching in front of a packed church in Rio de Janeiro. “He is Latin America’s biggest right-wing leader.”
In fact, as a way to show their support, some Bolsonaro allies are fighting to push forward the pardon bill through Congress that allows former leaders to avoid time behind bars. Some are seeking to restore his political rights, as he did. You are prohibited from running for office until 2030 As part of another process for him.
“We should drive his endgame, give Bolsonaro’s pardon and qualify him to run as a candidate,” Sen. Ciro Nogueira, former chief of staff at Bolsonaro, told the Associated Press in a telephone interview. “Without him we wouldn’t win the election. He’s a key leader and guide.”
But in reality, Brazilian right-wing leaders have already begun to consider Plan B.
Nogueira leads one of Brazil’s most powerful right-wing parties, the Progressista, who has named Governor Sao Paulo and Governor Parana Latinho juniors.
Both governors join the street demonstration called by Bolsonaro to defend his innocence. But Bolsonaro’s sons, who remain the centre of his inner circle, do not necessarily trust them.
As governor of Brazil’s wealthiest and most populous state, Defreitas is a strong candidate for the 2026 election. The former Bolsonaro pastor and military officer is widely viewed as a favorite candidate on the right.
A private message issued by the Supreme Court in August was that he lives in the United States. Magazine Movementquietly prepared his own presidential run while de Freitas accused him of not defending his father in the Supreme Court.
De Freitas refused to comment on the charges and refused to run for president, but said that if he was elected in 2026 he would soon grant a pardon to Bolsonaro.
The governor attended an Independence Day demonstration in Sao Paulo on Sunday. De Freitas, who imitated the former president’s speech, called for justice in overseeing the coup in the Supreme Court. “I can’t stand the tyranny of justice like Moraes,” he said. Alexandre de Moles.
Following the sentence, De Freitas said in X that Bolsonaro and the other convicted officers were “victims of unfair punishment for disproportionate penalties.”
“Stay strong, President. We will stay by your side!” he said.
Brazil might see “Bolsonism 2.0”
Bolsonaro’s beliefs could mark a new chapter in Brazilian politics.
Esther Solano, a sociologist at the Federal University of São Paulo and has been tracking Bolsonaro voters and evangelicals since 2017, calls it “Bolsonism 2.0.”
Her research shows supporters believe Bolsonaro is important to launching a conservative crusade, but the movement is stronger than he is strong enough to save lives. New people are emerging, including De Freitas, former First First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, MP Nikolas Ferreira and other evangelical leaders, Solano said.
“Bolsonalism is moving to a new stage: a new ecosystem of leaders that will strengthen from integration, fortification and the downfall of Bolsonaro,” she said.
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