Apple CEO Tim Cook holds up the new iPhone 17 Pro during a special Apple event held at Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino, California, on September 9, 2025.
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apple Counterpoint Research said in a note Wednesday that the company is on track to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, the first time in 14 years that it has achieved this.
Apple will ship about 243 million iPhones this year, while Samsung will ship about 235 million, Counterpoint told CNBC. Apple is likely to end up with a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, while Samsung’s share will be 18.7%.
Shipments refer to the number of devices a vendor ships to the retail channel and do not directly equate to sales. However, they do provide insight into demand and sales expectations for smartphone manufacturers.
Apple’s success has been driven by the iPhone 17 series, which launched in September and, according to Counterpoint, received a “bumper” holiday sales season.
According to the research firm, sales of the iPhone 17 series (including iPhone Air) in the United States during the first four weeks after launch were 12% higher than sales of the iPhone 16 series, excluding iPhone 16e. In China, an important market for Apple, sales of the iPhone 17 series increased by 18% over the previous model in the same period.
“Apart from the very positive reception of the iPhone 17 series in the market, the main driver of the improved shipment outlook is that the replacement cycle has reached an inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now in the upgrade phase,” Yang Wang, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, said in a note.
Meanwhile, Samsung could face challenges from Chinese players in the lower to mid-tier of the smartphone market, which could prevent the Korean giant from reclaiming the top spot, Counterpoint said.
Apple’s long-term boost
Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple will maintain its top spot in the global smartphone market until 2029. Analysts explained several reasons for this.
First, 358 million used iPhones were sold from 2023 to the second quarter of 2025.
“These users are also likely to upgrade to new iPhones in the coming years. These factors form a sizable demand base and are expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the next few quarters,” Counterpoint Research said.
Apple benefited from the U.S.-China trade truce as the impact of tariffs was lower than expected. This contributed to Apple’s broader supply chain and growth in certain regions, such as emerging markets. The tech giant also benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar and a “resilient economic outlook” that boosted consumer confidence.
“With these structural tailwinds, Apple is well-positioned to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025,” Wang said.
Meanwhile, Apple is expected to launch the entry-level iPhone 17e and a foldable smartphone next year, Counterpoint predicts. The research firm said it also expects previously announced improvements to Apple’s virtual assistant Siri and a “significant redesign of the iPhone” in 2027 to support Apple’s dominance in the coming years.
“By expanding its lineup across multiple price points, including the growing ‘e’ series and the possibility of adjusting the Pro and Base launch cycles, Apple is strategically positioned to capture growing demand from aspirational consumers, especially in emerging markets, and strengthen its presence in the lower-end segment, which is expected to grow faster than the overall market,” Counterpoint said.
“Apple will maintain its lead over other smartphone OEMs through the end of the decade, given the iOS ecosystem, cross-device compatibility, and increased prioritization of a significant number of older models within Apple’s installed base that are scheduled for updates.”
