Apple CEO Tim Cook looks at the new iPhone 16 with Siddharth Suryanarayan and Aditi Rao Hydari during an event at the Steve Jobs Theater on Apple’s campus in Cupertino, California, USA on September 9, 2024.
Manuel Orbegoso | Reuters
apple’s Thursday’s earnings report is important for investors because it includes the first official iPhone 17 sales numbers.
The report covers sales through the end of September and includes just over a week’s worth of sales data for the latest Apple smartphones, which went on sale on September 19th. Wall Street has been pushing Apple shares higher in recent weeks as early industry estimates suggest the iPhone 17 is likely to be a hit.
But investors will be watching closely to see what Apple says about demand, whether this year marks a “supercycle,” or the first year of growth after iPhone sales peak in fiscal 2022. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Apple to surpass that high point in fiscal 2025.
Third-party estimates from analysts and industry researchers show that iPhone sales have increased this cycle, particularly for the entry-level iPhone 17, which has the fastest chip and a screen with a faster refresh rate, and the iPhone 17 Pro model, which has a full aluminum frame and improved battery life.
However, the latest model of the iPhone, the iPhone Air, does not seem to be selling well so far.
“Some reports have highlighted slower iPhone 17 Air growth than some had originally expected,” Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Lakers wrote this month.
This is a familiar story for Apple, which sees its biggest growth spurts when it introduces new iPhone models that expand its lineup. However, since moving to a four-model lineup in 2020, Apple has struggled to sell the fourth model, lagging behind the base iPhone and Pro models. Since 2020, Apple has replaced the “Mini” iPhone with a “Plus” iPhone with a larger screen, and is now experimenting with the “Air.”
The new iPhone Air was on display at an Apple special event at Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino, California on September 9, 2025.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images
Apple doesn’t break out sales numbers for individual devices, but CEO Tim Cook and CFO Kevan Parekh often give some insight during earnings calls about product launches during the quarter and how much demand the company sees.
When Apple launched the $999 iPhone Air in September, Cook called it “an iPhone that feels like a part of the future.” Price-wise, it falls between the iPhone 17, which starts at $799, and the iPhone 17 Pro, which starts at $1,099.
The iPhone Air is thinner and lighter than Apple’s other phones, but that comes with some compromises. It only has one camera lens and battery life is shorter than others. Still, it’s the only iPhone to get a major redesign this year, and reviews have been positive.
Sales in China may also boost the model. It wasn’t released in China until earlier this month, and sold out within minutes, according to the South China Morning Post.
Still, buyers seem to prefer what they’re already familiar with.
Japanese newspaper Nikkei Shimbun reported last week that Apple has “significantly” reduced orders for iPhone Air parts from partner companies, but is increasing orders for other phones.
Ming-Chi Kuo, a supply chain analyst at TF International Securities who is known for predicting Apple’s future moves, said following the report that the iPhone Air fell short of expectations.
“This shows that the existing Pro series and standard models already sufficiently cover most of the demands of high-end users, leaving little room to develop new market segments and positioning,” Kuo posted on social media.
In many ways, the poor performance of the iPhone Air isn’t a big change for the company.
Since 2020, Apple has released four new phones in the fall. But one of the four new models has consistently lagged behind the others in sales, and Apple has been swapping models out over the years to find one that works.
Before the Air, it was the iPhone “Plus” that was in the middle of the lineup with the same specs as the main iPhone but a larger screen. The price was $899. Apple tried it from 2022 to 2024.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said lead times, or how long Apple indicates on its website how long it takes to ship a device, suggest there will be similar demand for the iPhone Air as its predecessor.
“iPhone Air lead times were initially below the iPhone 16 Plus, but now they are above the iPhone 16 Plus and slightly below the iPhone 15 Plus,” Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng wrote in a note this month.
Before that, Apple’s fourth phone was the iPhone Mini, which was cheaper than the flagship iPhone when it launched in 2020, but consumers didn’t flock to its smaller screen.
Analysts say the iPhone Air could be the basis for a more diverse lineup, including a foldable iPhone. Its thin design resembles half a flip phone, tech critics say. And the fact that the iPhone Air doesn’t have a number suggests that it may not receive annual updates anyway.
If Apple’s other iPhone sales are surging, the Air’s delay may not matter to investors, especially if the new design at least makes the lineup feel fresh.
“We believe Apple has the ability to maintain smartphone relevance through iPhone form factor updates,” Goldman analyst Ng said. “For example, after the debut of the thinner iPhone Air form factor this year, Apple is expected to launch its first foldable iPhone in 2026, followed by a full-screen iPhone in 2027.”
Apple did not respond to a request for comment.
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