Despite his strong desire to be seen as a peace negotiator, US President Donald Trump backed away from a deadline for a Ukraine deal on Thanksgiving.
This is an important signal that the upcoming culmination of his peace initiative, now in Moscow with his special envoy Steve Witkoff’s talks with the Kremlin, is unlikely to result in a sudden agreement to stop Russian aggression.
The rift between Kiev and Moscow remains too obvious, and the reasons for their stubbornness are too steeped in sacrifice, anxiety and bloodshed. It will become clear over the coming days that Russian President Vladimir Putin is reluctant to accept any offer that does not leave the entire Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine under his control.
The latest U.S. proposal apparently strips a plan leaked last week of its key concessions and is considered militarily and politically prudent by neither Kiev nor its European allies. Given the decade-long history of this war, including three Russian invasions of Ukrainian territory through years of diplomacy and deceit, there is reason to doubt the sincerity of the Russian government.
The repeated and periodic failure to grasp the gulf between these two opposing sides, hammered out on two separate negotiation tracks, is ultimately why progress always seems so close and yet so unattainable. Negotiating one deal with Ukraine, then another with Russia, and hoping the two countries get close enough to hold provides the seductive illusion that progress is being made, but actually accomplishes nothing. The key points will stick together.
Many of the proposed transactions include speculative and theoretical ideas regarding future collaborations, financings or restrictions. However, as with some memorandums of understanding in the past, these elements can transform into something more practical or disappear entirely within months of a deal being signed.
If Ukraine really wants to achieve peace, it does not need 600,000 troops, the maximum proposed in the draft agreement. In peacetime, when Ukraine must demobilize and deal with post-war economic nightmares that undermine the health of its military, NATO membership is likely to be less urgent and less feasible.
Will Russia return to the G8? As much as he might want to, the idea of Putin shaking hands at a summit with European leaders who still despise him seems far-fetched. Who will pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction? If you understand how opaque business is in Russia and Ukraine, you will realize that no plan is simple or transparent. While these points are important to address in any transaction, they may change upon first contact.
The single most important question is whether any deal will actually stop the war. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is likely to be forced to grapple with dire trade-offs again. He must weigh the value of future security formalized by the United States and Europe against the real and unavoidable damage Donetsk concessions would inflict on his country and Ukraine’s political and military standing. If a deal goes through, that’s a bad choice. In the long run, as before, there will be no choice if the Kremlin does not honor the agreement.
However, the near future does not bring good news. Zelenskiy’s government is beset by a myriad of crises. President Donald Trump’s deadline has pushed corruption scandals that will soon return from the headlines. Ukraine’s military is understaffed. Funding from Kiev’s European allies next year is in doubt, but the European Union recently said it believes it can close the gap. And on the front lines, three separate crises are unfolding. Russia is advancing rapidly in Zaporizhia, slowly but inevitably in Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, and further north in Kupiansk. Ukraine cannot fight so many fires with so few soldiers.
The rest of Donetsk, which is under Kiev’s control, is also at risk this winter. Russian forces are close enough that Kramatorsk, a major military hub, is already the target of short-range Russian drone strikes. Kiev is unlikely to regain territory from Russia any time soon. The future calculation for Kiev and its allies is not when they can turn the war around, but rather whether they can break through the Russian forces first.
The implicit hope of Kiev and its allies, though perhaps tenuous, is that they can see Ukraine push Russia’s brutal waste of human resources and full-scale economic focus on war to its limits and defeat it. In a closed society like Russia, it is impossible to predict how far away collapse is. Wagner’s 2023 Rebellion seemed like a pipe dream until Evgeny Prigozhin’s troops made the 72-hour, tumultuous journey to Moscow. Ukraine’s problems are more open and serious.
For Mr. Zelenskiy, the upcoming battle is fraught with risks. Russia is rich in resources and is making serious progress on the ground. The fight for Ukraine is an existential one, and Russia cannot afford to one day decide it has had enough and stop its onslaught. But after the past 10 months of hardship, diplomatic turmoil and whiplash, this unimaginable deal is coming closer to fruition.
The idea that Ukraine would cede land to Moscow in exchange for peace had been publicly ridiculed by Kiev and Europe earlier this year and throughout the Biden administration. It is now part of the first wave of President Trump’s 28-point peace plan. It’s gone from the leaked European counterproposal, but it’s clearly gone from Putin’s maximalist wish list.
I’m sure the cycle will continue to repeat itself. During his visit to Moscow, President Trump’s envoy Witkov will again hear that President Putin will not budge on his demand that Ukraine abandon Donetsk in exchange for peace. Witkoff will tell that to Trump. Mr. Zelenskiy will be under pressure again, and another Thanksgiving-style deadline could come.
