Ali Larijani, Iran’s top national security official and de facto leader, has emerged as a key architect of the country’s military and diplomatic strategy since the beginning of the conflict between the United States and Israel. Experts say his killing could complicate future efforts to end the war.
Larijani, now 67, has become a visible symbol of the regime and its continuity. He also took part in a rally in Tehran last week, even though he has been a major target for Israel since the conflict began on February 28.
Throughout the first two weeks of the war, Larijani was also active on social media, trolling US President Donald Trump and on Monday warning Muslims across the Persian Gulf: “You know that America has no loyalty to you, and Israel is your enemy. Please pause for a moment and think about the future of yourselves and the future of the region.”
Analysts say Larijani’s death in an Israeli airstrike could deprive Iran’s leadership of its most shrewd and powerful voice, making negotiations to end the war even more difficult. For many observers, Larijani has become Iran’s de facto leader amid the turmoil of recent weeks, particularly in the days following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Studies, said he was “a true insider who spent decades at the heart of the system, which gave him the trust of different parts of the elite.”
“The Islamic Republic is designed to survive the loss of individuals, but replacing someone with such diverse experience will not be easy.”
Israeli airstrikes both in June and in the current conflict have killed many experienced Iranian commanders and security officials. However, the loss of Larijani, the head of Iran’s National Security Council, is on a different level.
He may not have always been a target. People familiar with civilian planning and discussions told CNN last September that he was the most popular transition candidate in the United States and Israel. But Israel took notice of him in early February after he played a key role in formulating a strategy for violent military action, spearheading a crackdown on Iranian protesters and slamming the United States and Israel.
Azizi said his death will have a limited direct impact on the war effort, but the political management of the war will become more complex because of Iran’s command of political messages and international contacts.
Azizi believes that a figure like President Massoud Pezeshkian, a prominent moderate who has been largely sidelined since the conflict began, will not be able to cobble together an intra-elite coalition to negotiate an end to the war. It would take someone of Larijani’s caliber to involve the various factions to reach a potential agreement.
For nearly 50 years, Larijani held key positions in the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), security services, state media and parliament.
The Supreme Council of National Security praised Larijani’s long political career, describing him as someone who worked for Iran’s development “until the last moments of his life” and called for unity in the face of external threats.
“This kind of trajectory is relatively rare” in the Islamic Republic, Azizi told CNN. “The only position missing from his resume was president.”
Azizi said Larijani was a skilled navigator of the Islamic Republic’s changing politics and a “pragmatic conservative” who could operate in different camps within the system while remaining fully loyal to the republic.
He served as commander of the Revolutionary Guards during the Iraq war in the 1980s and later as director of state television.
Larijani was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator during the first decade of this century. Western diplomats who negotiated with him described him as sophisticated and intelligent. Since Khamenei was appointed as his advisor in 2004, he has started to listen to Khamenei on security issues.
He served as speaker of Iran’s parliament for 12 years until 2020, expanding his power base.
In a 2015 interview with CNN, Larijani praised the deal negotiated by the Obama administration to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, calling it “the beginning of a deeper understanding of other issues.”
After last year’s conflict with Israel, Larijani returned to the spotlight as head of the National Security Council and is considered by many analysts to be the country’s most important decision-maker.
He has also recently visited Moscow, Beirut, Abu Dhabi, and Oman, making him Iran’s main international spokesperson, even more so than Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. He met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in late January and set out Iran’s conditions for a nuclear deal after visiting Oman, where he was mediating between the United States and Iran.
Larijani’s core position within the regime was strengthened by his family’s prominent clerical background. He was married to the daughter of a prominent ayatollah. One of his brothers, Sadegh, is also Iran’s Ayatollah and former Iranian attorney general. Another brother, Mohammad Javad Larijani, has also served in various roles in the Islamic Republic.
Larijani was also a prominent scholar. Originally trained in mathematics and computer science at Sharif University of Technology, he earned a doctorate in philosophy from the University of Tehran and has written extensively on the work of German philosopher Immanuel Kant.
Larijani has been vocal and eloquent in recent days about Iran’s readiness for continued conflict.
“Unlike the US,[Iran]is preparing for a long war,” he posted on X shortly after the US began military action.
With his death, it may last even longer. On Monday, state media announced that 71-year-old former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezaei had come out of retirement to become a senior military advisor to Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
This suggests the leadership is relying more on the Iraq war generation and is therefore becoming more militarized without counterbalancing Larijani’s pragmatism, Azizi told CNN.
Christiane Amanpour contributed to this report.
