islamabad
—
Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have escalated in recent days with deadly gun battles between the neighbors, raising fears of an escalation of the conflict.
The fighting follows last Thursday’s attack in Afghanistan’s capital Kabul and the border province of Paktika, which the Taliban blamed on Pakistan but which Islamabad did not officially acknowledge.
The unrest coincided with a historic visit by Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan al-Muttaqi to Pakistan’s rival India, raising concerns in Islamabad.
Experts have warned that these latest attacks could usher in a new era of instability for the neighbors, who have long maintained a stable strategic relationship despite frequent skirmishes along their disputed border.
Here’s what we know about the violence, which has prompted calls for de-escalation from China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and an offer to broker peace from US President Donald Trump.
The Taliban on Thursday night accused Pakistan of carrying out “unprecedented, violent and reprehensible” attacks on targets in Kabul and Patika.
Islamabad has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack. But at a press conference on Friday, Pakistani military official Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said there was “evidence” that “Afghanistan is being used as a base of operations to carry out terrorism in Pakistan.”
Pakistan has long accused the militant group Pakistan Taliban (known as TTP) of harboring in Kabul, a charge denied by the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan has faced a surge in Islamist violence since the Taliban swept Kabul in 2021, emboldening the insurgency.
On Saturday night, the Taliban launched retaliatory attacks against Pakistani forces in various areas near the border between Kunar and Nangarhar provinces.
Pakistan responded with attacks and physical assaults on Taliban camps and posts, as well as terrorist training facilities and support networks in Afghanistan, which the military said were “unprovoked” attacks.
The Taliban announced they had halted military operations around midnight, following mediation from Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Both countries claimed the death toll was higher than their neighbors acknowledged.
Pakistan claims to have killed more than 200 Taliban and insurgents, far exceeding the nine casualties claimed by the Taliban.
Meanwhile, the Taliban said they had killed 58 Pakistani soldiers, more than double the 23 losses claimed by Pakistan.
CNN has not independently verified these death tolls.
long and complicated history
Pakistan and Afghanistan have a long and checkered history, with frequent clashes along the 1,600-mile mountainous disputed border known as the Durand Line.
Pakistan was one of the Taliban’s main backers during the Taliban’s insurgency against the Afghan government in the early 2000s.
The two countries are also major trading partners and share strong people-to-people ties. Pakistan has taken in millions of Afghan refugees during decades of war, but in recent years has moved to expel many Afghans due to the risk of terrorism.
However, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have deteriorated as insurgent violence against Pakistan escalates.
The TTP has re-emerged as one of Pakistan’s biggest national security threats, carrying out 600 attacks against Pakistan’s military in the past year, according to a recent report by the independent non-profit organization Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).
Following Saturday’s attack, Pakistan’s military said that while Pakistan favors diplomacy, it “will not tolerate the illegal use of Afghan soil for terrorism against Pakistan.”
Pakistan announced on Sunday that it had closed two major borders with Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s military noted that this “serious provocation” occurred during the Taliban foreign minister’s recent visit to India, Pakistan’s main regional rival. The two recently had a brief clash earlier this year.
The Taliban and India made no secret of their close ties on Friday when New Delhi announced it would reopen its embassy in Kabul. He said Muttaqi’s visit was “an important step to advance relations and affirm the lasting friendship” between the two countries.
Islamabad and New Delhi “have been in a bloody competition for influence in Afghanistan for decades,” Antoine Lévesque, a senior fellow in South and Central Asia defense, strategy and diplomacy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told CNN.
Levesque said the Taliban’s visit to India marked a “major change” in India-Taliban relations and “increased Pakistan’s sense of insecurity on its eastern and western borders.”
Pakistan has long seen good relations with Afghanistan as key to countering India, which is why it continued to covertly support the out-of-government Taliban despite publicly supporting the U.S. and NATO war on terror, said Pal Pandya, ACLED’s senior analyst for South Asia.
“But this calculation doesn’t seem to be working,” Pandya said.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, China and Russia all called for de-escalation.
In a statement to Mr. X, Qatar expressed “concern” over the “potential impact on regional security and stability.” Saudi Arabia, which recently signed a defense pact with Pakistan, also called for “restraint and dialogue.”
“We sincerely hope that the two countries will focus on the bigger picture and resolve their concerns through dialogue and consultation,” China’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday. Russia also called for a solution “through diplomatic means.”
“We hope that China, which recently assumed the role of intermediary between Pakistan and Afghanistan and has economic interests in both countries, will continue to monitor the situation closely,” Pandya said.
The fighting also attracted the attention of President Trump, who offered to broker peace.
“I hear there’s a war going on right now between Pakistan and Afghanistan,” President Trump told reporters Sunday aboard Air Force One as he headed to Israel to commemorate the agreement ending the war in Gaza.
President Trump said, “I’m good at resolving wars, and I’m good at making peace.”
Violence has so far subsided as both countries have signaled a desire to de-escalate tensions, but the latest attacks could usher in a new era of instability in the neighbourhood.
“Historically, periodic outbreaks of armed tension have typically been retreated once both sides have asserted their claims,” Levesque said, adding that Pakistan’s leadership views Pakistan as a “regional stability provider.”
Although Islamabad does not claim direct responsibility for the Kabul airstrike, “such an attack would cross a red line in bilateral relations,” Pandya said.
According to ACLED data, the last airstrike by a foreign force on Kabul was in 2022, when the US killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, Panja said.
“In terms of the future of the relationship, much will depend on whether this escalation leads to a fundamental change in the way the Taliban deals with the TTP. That is really the key question,” Pandya said.
“The TTP has fought alongside the Taliban against US and NATO forces, but there is reluctance within the Taliban to commit to a full-scale crackdown. It remains to be seen whether the rising geopolitical costs will prompt the Taliban to reconsider.”
