tel aviv —
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s words are to be believed, the opening strike of the war with Iran would not have been necessary.
After a 12-day war with Iran in June, Prime Minister Netanyahu declared clear victory. Israel has eliminated Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs, “eliminating two existential threats.”
Last summer, he told Israelis that “this victory will last for decades.”
Those decades ended eight months later. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a pre-emptive strike in the war, which is now in its 26th day, more than twice as long as the June conflict. In the US we call it Epic Fury. Israel named it “Roaring Lion.”
Whatever the name, this is a war with no clear end in sight, even as US President Donald Trump on Monday praised “productive” talks aimed at ending hostilities.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Netanyahu has already declared victory again.
“We are winning and Iran will be fired,” he said at a press conference last Thursday.
Seventy-two hours later, two Iranian ballistic missiles crashed into a southern Israeli city, receiving a direct hit that penetrated the country’s layered missile defenses. One of the missiles landed in the city of Dimona, near Israel’s main nuclear research center.
When the joint operation began with a surprise attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other senior officials, Israeli leaders were confident and optimistic, boasting that they would destroy Iran’s military capabilities and disrupt its command and control. By every measure, this war with Iran is bigger than the last one.
However, Iran continues to bombard Israel and Gulf states with daily ballistic missile, drone and rocket attacks. Since February 28, more than 350 Iranian ballistic missiles have been launched into Israel, sending millions of Israelis into shelters every day.
“This is Russian roulette, living in this country is Russian roulette,” Aviad, who chose not to give his last name, told CNN from Tel Aviv, hours after cluster bombs fell in several locations in central Israel on Sunday.
Since the war began, 15 civilians have been killed by Iranian missiles in Israel and four more in the occupied West Bank, but this is just a fraction of those killed in Iran and Lebanon. More than 150 Israelis were injured in the two attacks on Saturday night, the highest number of casualties in a single day. Iranian salvoes continued to hit the country on Monday and Tuesday, even after President Trump declared that the United States was engaged in diplomacy with Iran. In another failed interception, a ballistic missile containing 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of explosives caused significant damage to property in Tel Aviv and injured four people.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the failure to intercept missiles was not systematic and noted that the kill rate was 92%.
However, Iran’s widespread use of cluster munitions has caused damage across the country, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of Israel’s air defense system. Israel’s Arrow 3 and David Sling interceptor missiles can defeat ballistic missiles with a single warhead, but cluster warheads break up into dozens of smaller projectiles. They are much less deadly and much harder to intercept.
Jennifer Hassan Smith, 52, told CNN, “If we mess up and stay in a safe room, we’re completely safe.” “Nothing in this world is perfect, including air defense systems. Casualties and imperfections are to be expected from time to time. The military is drawing conclusions and learning lessons, and we hope that there will be fewer casualties in the future.”
For now, Israeli public support for the war remains. A Channel 12 poll last weekend found that 66% of Israelis were satisfied with the outcome of the war, including 55% of voters who opposed Netanyahu. After two and a half years of continuous conflict, from the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack on Gaza to Lebanon and now two Iranian expeditions, Israeli society seems to have become accustomed to a state of permanent war.
Whether there are limits to its adaptation appears to be one of the strategic questions Tehran is betting on, a former Israeli official told CNN. “The Iranians are stretching the rubber band and betting that it will break before Israel and the Gulf states do,” the official told CNN.
Ofer Sherak, a senior researcher at the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, does not think Israel’s resilience will be broken. “Iran’s attrition strategy is calculated and cold-blooded, but it is not designed to deplete Israel’s domestic front, but rather focuses more on the Gulf states,” Sherak told CNN. “Israel’s home front is exhausted and exhausted, but not exhausted. It is still standing.”
Israel’s Ministry of Transport announced on Sunday that departures would be reduced to one flight per hour and carry only 50 passengers. After the strikes in Dimona and Arad, Israel again tightened restrictions on in-class learning in the south, forcing students to remain in virtual classes for longer periods of time.
Support for the Iran war is so high that experts who track public opinion in Israel believe that patience with the Iranian operation is unlikely to wane anytime soon, even as the war’s global economic impact is felt domestically. However, support is not indefinite.
“The Iranian threat is dramatic enough for Israelis to continue to suffer because of it,” said Shmuel Rozner, a senior fellow at the Jewish People’s Police Institute, which tracks public opinion. “The question is not the suffering, just whether the Israelis believe that the aims and goals of the war are achievable. And there we see the beginning of a trend. In the early days everyone was convinced that it would change the Middle East, but as time goes on, questions naturally arise.”
Netanyahu’s critics do not see the Iran war as an isolated event, but rather the latest in a common pattern. Similar declarations of victory followed military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, all of which were positioned as turning points to restore Israeli deterrence and regional balance.
“This is a prime minister who refuses to combine military action with strategic planning,” a former security official told CNN. “He refused to discuss any plans for the next day in Gaza, never cemented the Lebanese ceasefire in November 2024, and said the 12-day war (in June) was a huge success. Eight months later, we’re back in the same loop. It’s clear it was just a bandage.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s message remains unchanged. Visiting the strike site in Dimona on Sunday, he vowed the same victory again. “The war will continue until we win.”
