Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, will speak at a press conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, September 30, 2025.
Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The health plan premium purchased from the Affordable Care Act Marketplace will more than double in 2026 when subsidies with grants extended on schedule expire.
Follow CNBC’s live blog for government shutdown updates.
The finding comes as Democrats and Republicans are trapped in a deadlock that has been linked to strengthened subsidies that threaten to shut down the federal government early Wednesday morning.
Enhanced subsidies or enhanced premium tax credits will lower health insurance premiums for 22 million ACA subscribers.
They are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025 unless Congress acts.
Once the enhanced credits end, recipients will see a premium increase of $1,906 in 2026, from an average of $888 this year. According to KFF’s analysis, it’s an increase of 114%.
Democrats hope to extend the strengthened grants in 2026 as part of a contract to fully fund the federal government. Republicans say negotiations should arise regarding continuing those credits after the Senate approves funding.
What is the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit?
Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) refers to a medical poster at a press conference with other Senate Democrats following his weekly policy luncheon at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. on September 30, 2025.
Nathan Posner | Anadoll | Getty Images
The premium tax credit was established under the Affordable Care Act and was initially available to households with incomes of 100% to 400% of federal poverty levels.
In 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act, a pandemic relief law, temporarily increased the premium tax credits and increased eligibility for households with annual incomes of more than 400% of federal poverty restrictions. This includes, for example, a family of four who earned more than $128,600 in 2025.
The law also limits the amount households pay from their pocket towards premiums at 8.5% of their income.
Democrats have temporarily expanded these enhanced subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act signed by former President Joe Biden in 2022.
According to KFF, the enhanced subsidies saved an average of $705 a year in 2024.
More details from personal finance:
How government closures will affect your money
How workers prepare financially for government shutdowns
IRS delays create “anxiety” for car dealers ahead of the deadline for EV tax credits
According to KFF analysis, other factors exacerbate the increased costs for enrollees.
For one thing, the Trump administration has changed the way tax credits are calculated, and as a result, subscribers must pay a higher share of revenue towards their 2026 benchmark ACA plan, KFF said.
Insurance companies in the ACA market are also proposing that the median rise rate also increased by 18% due to rising healthcare costs and strengthening subsidies, KFF said. This will be the largest rate increase since 2018.
KFF found that the 2026 premium increase would occur across income groups.
For example, the 60-year-old couple, who earned $85,000, or 402% of federal poverty levels, found that on average annual premium payments exceed $22,600 after earning credit enhancements and loss of interest rates for insurance companies.
In states that have not expanded Medicaid coverage, the 45-year-old who earns $20,000, or 128% of federal poverty levels, will average benchmark health plan premiums to $420 a year, up from $0 per year, and from strengthened premium tax credits to $0 per year.
