When do unexpected things become regular?
The twist of the headspin frequently appears in President Donald Trump’s Ukrainian policy.
On Tuesday, Trump suggested that Ukraine could reclaim all occupied land due to NATO’s arms supply, will to fight, and Russia’s economic frailty. A man who once said that Ukraine should hand over the land to its invaders and deploy a red carpet for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As for the biggest European war since the 1940s, all this can be easily adjusted, at least if it doesn’t come from the most important voices in the West.
A 180-degree turn on Tuesday night means that even if there is a warning that the world’s most powerful man could return on Monday with a full 360 in action, he incited but could not punish the Kremlin for his actions.
First, it is stupid for Trump’s latest latest position to deny the good news on the surface for Kiev. It recognizes the “spirit” of the Ukrainians for battle and supports their greatest position to seize all the territory occupied by Russia. NATO arms them with our weapons into handles. Moscow highlights the obviously military-remaining “paper tiger.” After three and a half years, they are trying to take over 20% of the country they thought would be wet in a week.
But the substantial and important good news is almost over.
Trump no longer wants the war to end now. He believes that could continue until Ukraine regains something that is almost certainly not. Given the slower acute human power and territorial losses that Kyiv has faced for several months, it is safe to say that he hopes that war will come to a fair and lasting end tomorrow.
Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky has now moved from one impossible demand to another.
He is no longer asked to make unfortunate concessions on the land of Ukraine. Instead, he is now in an impossible reinstatement of Ukraine’s land. Neither option is an easy deliverable that will prolong Zelensky’s position or strengthen Ukraine.
In response to Trump’s comments, the Kremlin said “even skilled experts” could see the Russian military progress.
The main driving force behind Trump’s debate is that Russia’s economy is at risk, as we have heard from his European allies. Yes, constant strikes in the infrastructure of a Russian refinery have caused gas shortages, and another Ukrainian drone struck Gazprom refinery for the second time on Tuesday night. It is 1,400 km (870 miles) within Russia. There are a wide range of issues with reporting queues at gas stations. Like all closed societies, it is impossible to measure how serious this is, and in the coming months it may destroy real destruction or just melt away, like an iceberg.
Relying on Russia’s economic frailty brings another social paradigm to where the Kremlin is now.
In a pre-invasion world, high inflation rates, rising wages, a massive pending dysfunction crisis, and the damage to the normal economy due to sanctions need to weigh policymakers.
But this is Putin’s existential war. Once that’s over, he could either lose power or face the impossible task of explaining and healing that even his dictatorship struggles. He must present Russian soldiers and Russian veterans with the decisive victory that he can harm his breath in grief.
Countries that can withstand about one million casualties can handle or ignore economic turbulence. Moscow can feel pain, and if it’s too much, China, its main bankroller, will probably find a way to help.
But the bookend of the US President’s Truth Social Post reveals as much as its long interior.
After nine months of peace efforts, Trump believes that after knowing and fully understanding the military and economic situation in Ukraine/Russia, Ukraine can win and that Russia’s economy could stall.
Trump ends his post saying that NATO can buy weapons from the US and “can buy NATO to do what they want. Good luck to everyone!”
Again, the president, a key member of NATO, speaks of the alliance as a foreign object, and the war he has promised to end it as something others need good fortune.
Buried around the long posts were two other important new stances.
Speaking alongside Zelensky at UNGA, Trump said NATO countries should fire down Russian jets in airspace.
It’s probably not a radical idea, but in the current climate there are inflammatory traces of American support for this defense.
His Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said, “I don’t think anyone said anything about shooting down a Russian jet unless they were attacking.” Trump later added: “It depends on the situation,” when asked if he would take part in defensive efforts.
The message is difficult and may persuade the Kremlin to calm the era of enveloping madness.
But the White House is not entirely clear and absolute. Putin tests this new resolve. Perhaps not tomorrow, but again, but in another way that forces the biggest military alliance in history to analyze and discuss Moscow’s motivations.
Second, when asked if Trump still trusts Russian leaders – now the code on whether long-standing sanctions against Moscow will be introduced for illuminating his peace process to gas – Trump said: “I’ll let you know about a month from now.”
Through all the noise, Putin still gets to November.
Trump’s new position is still bringing Ukraine back to the old one. Zelensky knows that to revive the territory, it will require funds, talent, and at the same time the miracle of Russia’s collapse. It is unclear whether Trump is parroting the biggest version of the Ukrainian president’s demands in his post, hearing these ideas from European allies at UNGA in New York, or creating this new approach.
This White House is incredibly lined up in the most Taka European position. Ukraine can fight indefinitely until Russia loses. That may seem unrealistic to most analysts. But it is better than the alternative that Ukraine admits to the greedy Moscow that it must accept some kind of defeat.
But the victory for Europe and Kiev, with unattainable ambitions and sign-offs of “lucky” — comes down to whether sound and anger mean anything.
Trump did not announce any new ones. NATO continues to buy what it is already about to buy, and is leaning towards a lonely analysis of Russia’s plagued economy seeing it become unsettling.
Trump was most violently shaking in favor of Kiev. But his policies remain a pendulum swayed between the worldviews of allies that the United States cannot live without, and Putin is someone he inexplicably likes and trusts.
The Kremlin has been proven to be a good judge on how far they can extend his patience.
They likely realized that he had himself at the very heart of the story of how this war for European security unfolded in the 21st century, and that he enjoyed this role. And they will find this position new, like the past eight deadlines he set.
And they at least have another month and see if it’s back again.
