Slobiansk, Ukraine (AP) – Autumn is expected to bring something else Ukrainian military test As Russia intensifies Campaign to seize the eastern regionIt has been attempting to conquer the industrial centre and territory of Ukraine for a long time.
Russia currently controls around 70% of the Donetsk region. Ukrainian Army I’ve been pushed back In the strings of four cities that analysts called its “fortress belt.” They defeated Moscow’s efforts To seize the area for years.
However, the lack of military, supply and chaotic management makes it increasingly difficult to resist Russia’s relentless pressure in the region.
Despite months of US-led peace efforts, as the invasions of those over three continue, analysts and the military say they could struggle to resist the fierce push to seize the last city in the region under Ukraine’s control.
Moscow is segregated territory
Analysts and Ukrainian officers say it is unlikely that Russia will engage in prolonged urban battles and avoid expensive battles like the Bahmut raid.
“rear Bakhmut And the Russian Chashiv Yar clearly understood that the metropolitan city would be transformed into a vast cemetery for the military.
To skirt the city, Russian troops push the flanks, increasingly using penetration tactics, sending small groups of soldiers through gaps between Ukrainian units.
Some of these groups achieve tactical gains, slipping behind the frontline to hide treelines and basements, sometimes occupy abandoned positions and block supply routes. However, the cost of personnel is heavy. Of the five units, Ukrainian commanders are usually killed, one injured, one goes missing, only one survives Seeking a drone to remove water and medicine.
“These are tactical successes, not strategic successes,” Yurchuk said. “This tactic is very slow and does not resolve the task of encircling or controlling a large settlement.”
With a drone Sliding bomb It also plays an important role, allowing Russia to attack troops and supplies, weakening Ukrainian bases without head-on combat.
Russia is moving around the edge of its fortress belt
This summer, Russian troops strengthened their attacks at the northern and southern edges of Donetskberg. According to Ukrainian officers, their strategy is to cut off supply lines and surround local cities, rather than directly attacking.
One of the four that Russia illegally annexed in 2022 did not control any of them, but has become the epicenter of the battle since the start of a full-scale invasion.
In the north of Donest, Yurchuk’s 63rd Brigade is fighting to retain the town of Lyman, a key logistics hub on its way to Slobiansk.
The Plewar population is 20,000, and Lyman has rail connections, dozens of basements and bomb shelters, solid infrastructure, and powerful buildings that can install command posts or supply depots. It was occupied in part of the first year of a full-scale invasion, but was released in Ukrainian lightning bolts in the fall of 2022.
If the Russian army could take Lyman, they said they could use it to accumulate troops and try to cross the Siverskyi Donets River, a natural obstacle that would help protect Slovianusk.
However, the commander says he is confident that Russia’s latest attack will not work.
“It looks right from a military perspective – it looks neat on the map, but after nearly three and a half years of war, we all know that such deep operations and wide adjacent operations are not the strength of Russia,” Yurchuk said. “I’m sure they’ll fail because they simply can’t supply them with control.”
In the southern part of Donetsk, Russia has made progress near Pokrovsk, moving further around the southern base of the fortress belt, which once housed 67,000 people, but today it is not abandoned.
It is difficult to predict how the battle will unfold. Russia’s progress could turn into a breakthrough that will allow us to seize much of the region.
Ukrainian troops are on the ground
While Russia has achieved tactical benefits without saving emotions for human life, Ukraine faces the reality of shattering military shortages.
Fatigue and lack of regular turnover can also weaken Ukraine’s defenses.
“People are clearly one of the important issues,” said Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive Foundation. “Not only volume, but also dispersal on the battlefield, inefficiency in command, and drawbacks in training and management.”
On paper, several brigades list thousands of soldiers, but said that only a few hundred were in combat, a gap caused by mismanagement rather than Russia’s superiority. He said the confusion means that too many soldiers can double on the same task and target, while other soldiers will remain discovered.
“It’s a systematic flaw that we can’t accept or correct,” he said. “Until we do that, we must make up for it with the courage of technology, talent, the weaknesses of our enemies on the battlefield, and the courage of our people and volunteers who step into where they can.”
However, he and others warned that these measures were a temporary suspension gup unless broader changes came.
“The overall trends measured over the years look undesirable for Ukraine,” Chmut said, adding that new technology or geopolitical changes will not occur unless changes are made to the rear, such as fixing military management obstacles. “The longer this lasts, the worse it becomes. And without fresh resources, the Russians simply outweigh us by quantity and means.”
“Just because the Russians moved slowly in the past doesn’t mean they won’t accelerate,” warned Nick Reynolds, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute for Land Warfare. “Sadly, the Ukrainian army has been under great pressure for a very long time.”
The collapse of the fortress belt, he warned, It will drive away thousands of civilians And the cause Further economic damage. And even after capturing the entire region, it is unlikely that the invasion will end.
“We believe there are no reasons or indications for the Russian Federation or the Russian troops to stop,” said Reynolds, of the Donetsk region.
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Associated Press journalists Vasilisa Stepanenko and Yehor Konovalov contributed to this report.
