An alarm bell rang in Europe this week after NATO jets scrambled to intercept an unprecedented Russian drone invasion in Poland. There is new uncertainty on the east side of NATO as Russia and Belarus kick off major military drills to test military preparations.
Friday marks the beginning of a major phase of Zapad-2025, which the Russian Ministry of Defense said is a strategic exercise to “fight off attacks on the Union State,” the official title of Minsk and Moscow’s broad alliance. The joint operations take place in the training ranges of Russia and Belarus, as well as in the waters of the Baltic and Barents seas.
Neighbors in Russia and Belarus are now dominated by the Russian drones as Polish airspace violated early on Wednesday. And the incident that sparked Article 4 of NATO has lit a new spotlight on the role Belarus plays as a partner in the Russian junior military. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tass said a “large proportion” of drones that entered Poland jumped out of Belarus.
At a press conference at the border crossing of Telesporbrest, Polish Home Minister Masin Kierwinsky announced that as of midnight on Thursday, further notices had been closed at the Polish-Belarus border. Belarus’s News Agency Berta posted footage of Polish personnel stitching together concertina wires together overnight to create a barrier.
Kierwinsky said the Polish government’s decision is directly related to Zapad’s exercise, which he said was directly aimed at Poland and the European Union.
“During these exercises, the Russian army and the Belarusian army are practicing aggressive scenarios for our country,” he said. “If we are confident that the pole is safe and that the provocation will not threaten us, we will resume operations.”
The Russian army is part of it, casting the Zapad scenario (translated as “West”) as defensive in nature. And Maria Zakkarova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called the decision to close the Polish-Belarus border, which was meant to justify justifying policies that further expand tensions in the heart of Europe, a “conflicting step.”
However, Poland and its NATO allies are also very wary of joint military training as the precedent was set in the final set of the Zapaddrills in 2021. This is now said by Western military officials as a screen for the full-scale invasion of Ukrainian President Ukraine in February 2022.
The Zapad exercise in September 2021 was preceded by a large military accumulation near the Russian border with Ukraine in the spring. At the time, heavy Russian weapons, including tanks and heavy artillery, were left parked near the border for Zapad exercises to be performed later this year. The firepower will ultimately be directed towards Ukraine.
How big is your current Zapad exercise compared to previous iterations in 2021? In a recent interview on Lithuanian television, Colonel Mindaugas Majonas, Lithuanian Military Intelligence news, said the exercise was significantly smaller than the Zapad 2021 exercise, with service members in Belarus and Russia that a total of 8,000 troops (2,000) would run drills into Belarus soil.
According to an archived web page issued by the Russian Ministry of Defense, these figures are pale white, with about 200,000 employees, plus 80 aircraft and helicopters, 290 tanks, 240 pieces of artillery, multiple launch rocket systems and mortars participating, compared to Zapad-2021.
The decline in Russia’s presence in Zapad-2025 is briefly explained. Most of Russia’s fighting power is tied up by a bloody shattering war in Ukraine, particularly in the eastern Donbas region. However, that does not mean there is less concern in the Baltic family about Eastern European and Russian intentions.
While President Donald Trump’s response to rising tensions over the eastern edge of Europe has been relatively stifled, he suggested on Thursday that Russia’s drone invasion was “a mistake.”
In response to Trump, Poland’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Radoslau Sikorsky are dull: “No, it wasn’t.”
Polish Prime Minister Tass reiterated his sentiment on Friday, saying in a social media post, “I hope that the drone attack on Poland is a mistake, but that wasn’t the case.
Still, in surprise about Russia’s intentions, Belarus appears to be trying to do a balanced act.
Hours after the drone invasion into Poland, Belarus preempted the Kremlin by issuing a statement that appears to have shifted responsibility from Minsk. In a statement, Major General Pavel Maleiviko, head of the Belarusian military’s general staff, said Belarus had tracked down the drones and warned Poles and Lithuanians. And comments to state media after the drone invasion also appeared to distract Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko.
“We immediately notified Poland as soon as possible. And what did we get accordingly?” Lukashenko grumbled. “Listen, it’s like a bunch of savages. They’re stirring tension from nothing. They probably want us to respond appropriately.
And on the eve of Zapad’s climax, Belarus forgives 52 political prisoners and releases them to Lithuania. This is another gesture that shows Lukashenko’s willingness to chart courses that are somewhat independent, especially from Moscow. So, contrary to the background of Zapad and its accompanying Saber Ratling, Lukashenko may be playing a good cop to Putin’s bad cop.
