Bearbaits are illegal in the majority of states that allow bear hunting, but they occur quickly on Wall Street. The market is hanging in front of Bearden, with Jobs report weaker than Hope on Friday, bringing the average three-month salary gain to the lowest level most seen ahead of the recession. The largest stock in space and the leading vehicle with the most propelling theme in this bull market, Nvidia has dropped by 8%, falling below the seven-day average of 50 days since posting a stellar quarter. Bitcoin tracked a similar pullback pattern in violation of the same trendline, down 10% from its peak in August. The most cobbets first public release in recent months has become miserable since the Romessing rally, which has been listed on the first list of Figma, Circe, Coreweave, Chime Financial and bullish firsts. Don’t forget that all of these illnesses and tape injuries are solid against the backdrop of historically worst months and generous stock valuations for inventory returns. If certainly selective, Rittany of this difficult disease has only moderately slowed the bull market, prompting a random rotation from previous leaders to the 2025 laguard, with the S&P 500 increasing by 10% per year, removing less than 1% and less than a day. Friday’s action – a modest S&P reduction after a negative turnaround from the first payroll postpop – is a bit of the microcosm of market mode since midsummer. A massive shortage in August’s employment growth rate (just 22,000, a third of the forecast) fueled expectations for an already solid market with the Federal Reserve rate reduced in the next week. But a slightly more stiff employment printing would have done the same, and the report echoes the shaking that this interest rate cut is happening in a resilient economy, causing a fierce rally with a financial and negative side reversal of banks and consumer cyclical stocks. But soon, traders ran a silver-lining playbook, bid for interest-sensitive housing stocks, organized a miniature Russell 2000, embracing a strong gathering of Broadcom stocks after a profit report and outlook for the punk-out, allowing another pass for the AI heavyweight mantle of new name leadership. This week we had Nvidia and Microsoft’s Broadcom, Alphabet and Apple. (For the past two years, Broadcom’s stock has now surpassed Nvidia’s 283% to 244%. Together, it accounts for 10% of the S&P 500. On the macro front, there is no doubt that, with a few clicks, the employment report raised concerns about the pace of economic growth, while still putting pressure on the insignificant camp of economic groomers who have been seeking an early re-speed in US growth. Bank of America’s Economists – part of that camp – On Friday, it stated that it was cutting two cuts away from forecasts for interest rate cuts this year, and for both employment data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a “reaction function” that highlights the downside risks to employment to inflation affected by sticky employment and tariffs. It also helps that there are asterisks and expansion situations around labor data this year. No, not the accuracy of the numbers themselves, but the marked decline in foreign-born workers and the continued aging of the population that is pushing down the entire labor pool. The estimate of the minimum monthly salary gain required to stabilize the unemployment rate has been significantly reduced to probably below 50,000. So, while not expecting much from the profits of the job, the resilient service economy, federal deficits, and spending on wealth and wealth is on the rise. With the rambling, we were able to reasonably brighten up the pace of GDP. Even within the job report, some found a sense of security and pointed out the increase in workers in the prime era employed. As a general question, the gradual evidence makes it difficult to remove the entrenched macro narrative asserted by the market’s actions themselves. Currently, the Fed has the concept that the economy can lower rates without desperately needing help, with stock in the records, credits spread strongly, and layoffs run relatively trickle. Does it help to lower the short-term rate? In the case of stock, sample sizes are smaller, but in the past, forward performance was very good when the Fed resumed rate reductions after at least six months of suspension. As for the real economy, we can make a case. Ned Davis Research has built the Main Street financial position index using actual home prices, consumer loan availability and other metrics. Here it is shown to be dramatically tighter than the gauges of the public finance market. If Powell is shown to be “too late” in reducing policy rate limits, it should cover the cushion under consumers, along with a recent decline in Treasury yield and mortgage rates and a fresh supply-driven breakdown of crude oil prices. Tariffs are a regressive and accidental tax on consumers, businesses and global efficiency, and its full effect has not yet been shown, but that does not mean they are doing enough damage to derail the economy. These hopeful sentiments about valuations are primarily a higher explosion from here. Rather than squeeze, it helps to explain why the market holds and what it has. Overall, investors’ capital allocations are full and the impulse to dip view remains strong, but true extreme optimism and aggressive positioning are not one of the problems in this market. The index targets of sell-side strategists are collectively very conservative, with average and year-end bogeys right near the current index level. In fact, as many people remind us immediately recently, stock valuations are inadequate in timing tools, especially when revenues are rising and the Fed is in a relaxed mode. We don’t deny this reality, but set a high standard for long-term returns. And S&P in the bull market for nearly three years Is it pure coincidence that the 500 forward P/E stagnated several times when it reached its current level around 22.5, and Nasdaq 100 p/e hit his head on the apparent ceiling at age 28? Or was this just a departure for an annoyed and unfortunate bear?
