Thailand’s influential former Prime Minister Thaksin Sinawatra raised speculation that he might suddenly leave the country on Thursday before the court’s ruling where he was imprisoned, and that he might not return to face the verdict.
His departure came before the Thai parliament chose a new prime minister and established a new government on Friday. The dominant Pheu Thai party founded by Thaksin was widely expected to lose power.
Thaksin, 76, spent 15 years voluntary exile after taking office in the 2006 military coup. Patongtarn Sinawatra, her daughter, who became Thailand’s youngest prime minister last year, took office a week ago following an ethical investigation.
For the past 25 years, Thaksin has built one of the country’s most famous and successful political dynasties, with alliance candidates winning almost every election since 2001.
However, the dynasty has long been hated by the powerful conservative and royalist institutions in Thailand, which frequently overthrew and united the Sinawatra-run government, with the help of both the military and courts.
Many observers feel that family power in Thailand is diminishing, and that its long dominant political machinery could ultimately disappear from steam.
What should you know about this:
Thaksin said in a social media post early on Friday that he was planning to travel to Singapore for a “health check,” but that he had been postponed for several hours due to Thai immigration.
His private jet leapt out of Bangkok’s Dong Mew An airport shortly after 7pm local time, police said in a statement.
Thousands of Thais on Thursday saw flight tracking data counting the T7GTS of the Bombardier Global 7500, a Thaksin’s plane, flying towards Singapore before turning west and turning several times. The plane then heads to India.
Thaksin said the pilots changed courses in Dubai after being informed that it was too late to land at Singapore’s Seletar Airport, which closes at 10pm local time.
“It was no longer possible to land in Singapore, so we decided to place a pilot exchange course in Dubai instead, as we have regular orthopedic surgeons and respiratory surgeons,” Thaksin wrote to X.
“While waiting for permission from Dubai Airport, the pilot had to go around for quite some time before permission was granted. Then he continued flying to Dubai.”
Thaksin said he intends to return to Thailand to hear the verdict in the Supreme Court case against him on September 9th.
In Thailand, speculation has swirled that Thaksin may not return.
Following his 2006 expulsion, Thaksin spent 15 years living in voluntary exile in Dubai and elsewhere, claiming he was politically motivated to avoid prisons for abuses of power and corruption in power.
The former owner of the Manchester City Football Club continued to play a major role in politics behind the scenes, despite his absence, and many believed that he had taken on the role of Puppet Master. His sister Ingluk ran the government until the court’s ruling ended the 2014 military coup following her tenure, but Thaksin’s brother-in-law also temporarily took charge of Thailand during his absence.
In 2023, Thaksin made a dramatic return to Thailand, where he was detained upon arrival and sentenced to eight years in prison related to the conviction imposed in his absence.
Thailand’s King Mahavajiralongkorn reduced Thaksin’s prison sentence to one year before being released on parole six months later.
Despite the sentence, Thaksin never spent the night in a prison cell. He spent time in the suite of Bangkok Police General Hospital.
The nature of his detention raised the question that he received special treatment and on Tuesday the Supreme Court verdict counts whether Thaksin’s time at the hospital was offered. If the court controls him, Thaksin could be sent to prison.
Many analysts believe Thaksin has signed a contract with the country’s powerful conservative, royalist institution for his return in exchange for a reduced sentence, generous treatment, or possible pardon. Thaksin returned the same day that his family’s political parties once again reclaimed the government’s reins.
Thaksin denied making such an arrangement.
The politician recently survived Majeste’s lawsuit against him.
Thailand is at an important time. Over the past 20 years, the kingdom has been ruled primarily by Sinawatras or its agents, or by the army.
But it could be about to change.
The Congress is expected to select a new prime minister on Friday. This is the third Prime Minister in three years.
Paetongtarn took office on August 29th after a leaked call with a former Cambodian leader during a fatal border dispute between the two countries.
The Constitutional Court found that she lacked integrity and seriously violated the ethical rules of the call, which plunged the already declining popularity of her Pheu Thai party.
Pheu Thai advocated the last remaining candidate for Prime Minister, former Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri.
However, they face a major challenge from the Bumujaytay party, where former coalition partners became rivals.
Thai politics veteran candidate Anutin Chanvirakul is widely expected to win the vote in parliament after the major opposition People’s Party, which holds the most seats by a single party, throws the conditional support behind Bumjai Hai.
A former construction tycoon, Anuchin holds the positions of Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister, and in the role of health minister, he has been the first country to do so in Asia, leading the decriminalization of cannabis in Thailand.
The agreement between the parties stipulated that Bumyaytay needs to dissolve the House, leading to early elections and work on drafting a new constitution. The People’s Party said it would remain in opposition.
The People’s Party is a very popular and progressive party that won the 2023 general election, but is a reincarnation of progress that has been prevented from forming a government to carry out deep structural reforms on the way Thailand operates, including the country’s powerful monarchy. They disbanded later.
The alliance can be unsettling given the strong royalist tendencies of the Anutin.
He previously refused to join hands with the party over his promises to royal reform. Bhumjaithai has also launched a lawsuit against Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat. As a result, lawmakers were banned from politics for 10 years.
The Pita Party was particularly popular among young Thai people. Thai youth have taken them to streets in recent years, which have called for widespread reforms, but only to see the prosecution and the movements brought to political leaders to sleep.
