President Trump Red, Prediction Market Scores and NATO Defensive Outlook

Hello, my name is Leonie Kidd and I’m from London. Welcome to today’s Daily Open Newsletter.

Pardon the football pun in today’s Daily Open, but President Trump’s unprecedented move to overturn a red card and England’s win over Mexico mean the match is the bulk of today’s agenda.

“Thank you FIFA for doing the right thing and reversing a great injustice!”

US President Donald Trump expressed his gratitude to the International Football Association for overturning the red card suspension of US national team striker Folarin Balogun. The move followed an unusual intervention from FIFA president Gianni Infantino, who reportedly called him and asked him to review the ban. This means Balogun is cleared to play against Belgium in today’s game in Seattle.

But this may not be the last. As reported by Politico, European soccer’s governing body UEFA is considering supporting Belgium with its own challenge to FIFA’s ruling.

It’s not all bad news for Europe. Norway defeated Brazil and England defeated Mexico, with both teams advancing to the quarter-finals.

But while this drama unfolds, the real winners of the World Cup so far are prediction markets.

According to data collected by users on Dune Analytics, Kalsi had more than $31 billion in notional value trades in June, an increase of more than 70% from May’s total of $17.9 billion. The platform has consistently managed more than $1 billion in daily trading volume since the football tournament began on June 11th.

Polymarket’s International Event Contract Exchange set a new monthly trading volume record last month, with notional transaction value exceeding $10.8 billion. This would reverse the downward trend seen in April and May, when volumes declined.

Competition between nations is not limited to the soccer field.

These will be on full display at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. President Trump set the stage with a message posted on Truth Social last week, referencing the Iran war and saying, “It’s ridiculous for America to continue down this unilateral path when the (NATO) relationship is not mutually beneficial. They were not there for us!!!”

In the coming days, he will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Russia’s war. The Ukrainian leader said there was “a real prospect of ending this war” and that dialogue would continue at the NATO summit in Ankara.

Relations with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan also came into focus this week, with reports that the two countries could announce a deal for F-35 jets and engines.

A new record is within reach for Wall Street.

Stock futures are rising as the U.S. stock market is set to reopen after the July 4th long weekend. European futures also show a mixed open in the major indexes, although the picture is more mixed across Asia.

There’s also an M&A hat trick for investors to digest this Monday morning.

First, defense giant Lockheed Martin plans to acquire Naval Group’s Ultra Maritime in a $3.5 billion deal, according to CNBC sources.

Next, British low-cost airline EasyJet is set to accept a $7.3 billion takeover offer from Castle Lake. The offer represents a 73% premium to the group’s share price as of May 29, when deal negotiations began.

And finally, Swiss pharmaceutical giant Novartis will acquire Myrixc Bio in a deal worth $1.5 billion.

— Leonie Kidd. Davis Giangiulio contributed to this report.

World Cup fans spent $2,500 to $150,000 to watch games and say it was worth it

Despite the World Cup’s staggering prices, that hasn’t stopped soccer fans around the world from opening their wallets.

As of July 2nd, StubHub has some of the best resale seats from famous knockout matches listed for around $20,000. Many of the top-level resale seats were listed for around $5,000.

But tickets are only part of the cost. Add to this the cost of flights, hotels, rental cars, meals, merchandise, etc., and the cost of attending a tournament can add up to several thousand dollars.

— Merrin Rosales, Mike Winters