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Polymarket is moving deep into private markets, and this deal ties into a company that most investors can talk about but can’t actually buy yet.
The company is launching prediction markets related to private company milestones, including valuations, IPO timing, and secondary market activity for companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Nasdaq Private Market acts as the exclusive resolution data provider and provides the information that determines whether these contracts are payable.
These event contracts may solve one of the biggest frustrations for many investors.
Many companies generate tremendous value and brand recognition before going public, with over 1,600 unicorns valued at more than $1 billion. Nasdaq. However, only accredited investors, institutions, or highly connected individuals can invest directly in these private companies.
Retail investors are usually sidelined.
Starting today, Polymarket contracts allow traders to take positions on whether certain private market events will occur, although they do not involve ownership, equity, or voting rights.
For example, Polymarket currently lists a market on whether OpenAI will have an IPO of more than $1 trillion by 2027, and another market on whether Anthropic will reach a valuation of at least $500 billion in 2026. There’s also a contract asking if Anthropic will be valued higher than OpenAI at some point this year.
These markets are solved using data from the Nasdaq Private Market, and the valuation data is initially made publicly available for free without a subscription.
Calci also offers several event contracts regarding whether a private company will IPO, which are determined based on a combination of sources including company sites, the SEC, and numerous news outlets. It does not provide a market for private company valuations.
Private company boom
NPM’s own data shows why these contracts are gaining traction. According to the stock chart on Anthropic’s page, the estimated NPM price as of May 5 was $477.02, an increase of over 1,500%. It also lists the highest bid as $260.80, the lowest bid as $188.50, and the last transaction as $234.00. The page states that NPM prices are based on market activity, valuation data from public sources, and proprietary information.
These contracts allow individuals to get early exposure to value creation in private markets, while also allowing financial institutions to read in real time how traders are pricing momentum in private companies.
Institutional investors may also benefit. Secondary market prices, funding rounds, and IPO timing remain fragmented compared to public equities. A fluid prediction market around these events could provide new signals, especially for companies where public company performance is incomplete and up-to-date private market data is difficult to obtain.
The real bet isn’t necessarily on OpenAI or Anthropic. The question is whether private market information facilitates contracts that are clear enough to trade, liquid enough to matter, and reliable enough to resolve.
Disclosure: Kalsi and CNBC have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment.
