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Home » Chipmakers are overextending. Where Josh Brown is choosing his position in this field
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Chipmakers are overextending. Where Josh Brown is choosing his position in this field

adminBy adminApril 28, 2026No Comments10 Mins Read
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(This is The Best Stocks in the Market, brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — Stop burying your leads. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is currently trading almost 50% above its 200-day moving average with an RSI of 85. If you’re placing a buy half-share order today, I hope you’re managing your risk. This can be done through tight stops and small trade sizes. These are the most expanded stocks in the most expanded industry group across global stock markets. At this point, the underlying factors are incredibly well understood. We coast on pure momentum and fear of missing out, but that’s rarely a great entry point. I don’t care how good the story is. I don’t think you can’t make more money with tips from here. I would be more selective and cautious about what you buy, how much you buy, and whether your expectations are reasonable. Because when this situation is reversed, and of course it will be, you may not be able to act calmly and endure regret. We’ve covered some monster winners in the chip space over the last year, from Lam to AMAT, Intel to KLA. Semi and semi-equipment is the most HALO of all the technology industry groups and this is one of the reasons why it has become so popular among investors. As uncertainty around software spending hurts Wall Street psyche, these companies continue to raise their earnings estimates while touting opportunities as far as the eye can see. Here, as usual, Sean shares some stats on the best stocks at the top of the market, then moves on to charts for Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel, and Microchip. As of April 27, there are 187 names on “The Best Stocks in the Market” list. Top Sector Rankings: Top Industries: Top 5 Best Stocks by Relative Strength: Sectors to Watch: Semiconductors Semiconductor stocks have completely collapsed. It’s literally like nothing you’ve ever seen before. Since the market bottom on March 30th, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up about 38% as of Friday. This is better than any other 18-day rolling period since the ETF’s inception. Better than the post-2022 COVID-19 recovery, better than the Liberation Day recovery. Over the past 18 days, SMH has closed higher on 17 of 18 closings. There was one down day, down 0.4%, but that’s a literal rounding error. And what makes this story even crazier is that SMH wasn’t in a major drawdown before this rally. It was 15% below its high, which is not nothing, but it certainly wasn’t a “SAASpocalypse.” Considering the recent developments in semiconductors, we thought we would list and take a closer look at some of the names in this field. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA): Sean — We’ll start with the biggest and worst company. NVDA posted impressive numbers last quarter. Full-year revenue was $215.9 billion, up 65% from a year ago, with $193.7 billion coming from the data center business alone. Fourth-quarter revenue reached a record $68.1 billion, driven almost entirely by demand for the latest Blackwell chip platform. Free cash flow for the year was $96.6 billion. Looking ahead, first-quarter sales are expected to increase approximately 80% year-over-year to approximately $78 billion, and EPS is expected to increase 120% year-over-year to $1.77. It’s not for nothing that it’s the biggest contributor to S&P 500 earnings. Josh — NVDA has been on a relentless uptrend since early 2023, rising from the low $40s to over $200, with every big drop being bought back violently. The ugly 35% drawdown in mid-2025 seemed alarming at the moment, but it turned out to be another entry point. It has regained 50 days of adjusted gains and has risen further since then. The RSI at 65 is constructive, with solid momentum, but not overbought. This is the group’s most practical setup at the moment, as the inventory is not dangerously stretched. Short-term traders can also participate here. The stock is above its 50-day gain, the RSI has room to grow before it expands, and the trend is intact. Stop is a close below $176. For long-term investors, this chart has been saying the same thing for three years. Buy on the spur of the moment and maintain the trend. 200 days at $150 is the dividing line between a long-term thesis and a failure. That’s too far to risk manage, so we’ll use recent support in the mid-$170s instead. If we fall significantly below that level, we will know that our entry was wrong and the downside will be fixed at a manageable level. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Sean — Broadcom makes chips for network and data infrastructure. They own VMware, the software that builds custom AI chips and runs corporate IT systems for big cloud players like Google. The company’s latest quarter revenue was $19.3 billion, up 29% year-over-year, but the real headline was that AI chip revenue more than doubled to $8.4 billion. It also returned $10.9 billion to shareholders in a single quarter. Second quarter sales are expected to be $22 billion, with AI semiconductor sales expected to be $10.7 billion, up 140% from the same period last year. Josh — AVGO has one of the cleanest charts on the market today. After spending most of the second half of 2025 bouncing wildly between about $275 and $400, the stock took a big breakout in early 2026 and never looked back. It is currently 25% above the 50-day price ($341) and well above the 200-day price ($336), which has been steadily rising across the base. The move has been impulsive, sending stocks to new highs. The RSI at 77 is rising, but that’s what leadership looks like, with momentum supporting the price rather than moving away from it. The risks for short-term traders are clear. This is an extension and is not a proper entry at this time. Patient traders should keep an eye on the $360-$370 area, where previous resistance has turned into support, for a possible retest entry. That’s what I would like to add. For long-term investors, the 200-day area around $336 is the only level worth paying attention to. As long as it’s up and the stock price is above it, the trend will stay that way. Scale in to weaknesses rather than chasing current extensions. I think I’ll retest the $400. Intel Corp. (INTC): Sean — Intel has rebounded sharply, rising more than 100% year-to-date to become a top-five stock on the S&P 500 this year. The company reported earnings last week, and its stock price rose 24% (best day since October 29, 1987). Sales for the first quarter of 2026 rose 7% year-on-year to $13.6 billion, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter and showing that the business is beginning to stabilize to some extent after difficult conditions in recent years. The company’s data center and AI division grew 22% to $5.1 billion, which was a big bright spot. Guidance for the second quarter is $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, with management flagging expectations for continued growth in server CPUs, although the PC market will be weak. Josh — I wouldn’t buy this stock here technically. Any sane person would take a minute or so to calm down before participating in a transaction. This is what happens when 20 years of disappointment suddenly come to an end. What is happening now is a change in perception. (Hey guys, it turns out CPUs have always been cool!). A fundamental turnaround may take years. But let’s be patient. INTC is the most surprising chart in this group, and perhaps in the semiconductor industry as a whole. The stock was essentially dead money from May to August 2025, hovering around $20 to $22 while everything else fluctuated. Then it woke up, and the stock rose from $22 to more than $80 in a near-vertical rally that began in September, nearly quadrupling in about eight months. This is higher than the 50-day price ($51), which is currently trending higher, and well above the 200-day price ($38), which is currently trending up. The RSI of 82 confirms that the momentum is real, but it is also a warning not to buy this today. Traders looking for entry will have to wait until the situation settles down. The breakout level from the January consolidation, the $60-$65 zone, is the first important area to watch on a pullback. This is a significant drop from current levels, but it’s exactly the kind of shakeout that a 4x rally in eight months can produce. The fundamental question for investors is: Is business actually improving, or is it just based on sentiment? Technical breakouts are real. Don’t buy extensions, let the stock come to you. Microchip Technology, Inc. (MCHP): Sean — Microchip Technology is a little different than the other names here. They make small embedded chips that power industrial machinery, automobiles, medical equipment, and communications equipment. This is a play on the Internet of Things, which is of course tied to the AI ​​transformation of the economy. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter was $1.186 billion, up 4% sequentially and nearly 16% year-over-year. MCHP currently has 141 consecutive quarters of non-GAAP earnings. That’s not bad for 35 years with no unprofitable quarters. This brings the March quarter to approximately $1.26 billion, representing a growth of approximately 30% year-on-year, with management noting that the June quarter order backlog is already trending higher than the same period last year in March. Josh — This will retest $80, but you’ll probably be able to do better. I could be wrong. MCHP has a rebirth story underway and the charts are finally starting to confirm it. The stock was a disaster from May 2025 to its November lows around $48, losing about half its value in a severe downtrend. What has changed is that the stock found a bottom, built a foundation, climbed back above 200 days in January, and is now confidently above 50 days. The RSI of 82 is the highest among stocks in this group, indicating strong buying pressure here. The gap between $65 and $73 in January is acting as support and has not yet been filled. Rising RSI means traders should not chase this number. Better entries would set up with a 50-day return at $71 or a 200-day retest at $67, both of which would give the RSI time to unwind. At either level, if volume is held depleted, this is the place to build a position. For long-term investors, the setup here is a potentially affected business as soon as the chart regains structure. Define your 200-day risk and give your trading a breather. Disclosure: (none) All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, its parent or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated on television, radio, the Internet, or another medium. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial assets. The Content is general in nature and does not reflect any individual’s unique personal circumstances. The above may not be appropriate for your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking the advice of your own financial or investment advisor. Click here for full disclaimer.



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