Morningstar analysts say Wizz Air will be hit hardest by the jet fuel crisis affecting Europe’s aviation industry, but Ryanair and British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group may be best placed to weather the supply crunch that threatens to upend the continent’s summer travel plans. Airlines with stronger margin buffers, better fuel hedging and direct operational exposure to the Middle East are among those expected to weather the looming travel disruption best, Morningstar equity analyst Loredana Muharemi wrote in a note Wednesday. “In Europe, that’s Ryanair among low-cost carriers and IAG among network carriers. By contrast, Wizz Air is most at risk given its lower full-year hedge protection, higher fuel cost share and weaker margin cushion,” he said. But even the best hedged airlines are only “partially protected” from rising fuel prices, he warned. WIZZ-GB 3M Mountain With Air. London-listed Hungarian low-cost airline Wizz Air has the lowest full-year hedge in 2026, with a “very low” margin buffer of about 55%, according to Morningstar data. By contrast, Ryanair was “high” for the year at 80%, while IAG, which owns British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vueling, was 62%. Germany’s Lufthansa is 77% hedged, while London-listed low-cost airline EasyJet is about 70% hedged. Between 25 and 35 percent of the world’s jet fuel supplies are transported through the crucial Strait of Hormuz passage in the Middle East, which has remained largely closed since hostilities with the United States and its ally Iran began on February 28. IAG-GB 3M Mountain International Consolidated Airlines Group. The International Energy Agency warned last week that Europe could run out of jet fuel within six weeks. Despite a cease-fire extension announced by US President Donald Trump late on Tuesday, the maritime corridor remains volatile, leading to high oil prices, limited jet fuel supplies and reduced capacity at many airlines. Muharemi said European airlines entered the crisis well-protected, but warned that fuel hedges were “fast wearing out ahead of schedule”. “Jet fuel prices have doubled since the conflict began, while oil prices have increased by about a third, so even well-hedged airlines are only partially protected,” Muharemi told CNBC in an email. 0A2U-GB 3M Mountain Ryanair. European airlines have already cut short-haul capacity in April and May, with the region’s “big three” network carriers (Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG) also cutting transatlantic capacity, according to a Bank of America analysis. BofA analysts said in a note Wednesday that some European airlines pushed capacity back from the second quarter into the third. “While the operational impact is real, the direct revenue impact to the Middle East for many European airlines remains relatively limited and uneven,” Muharemi said. “The bigger issue is rerouting, which often requires an additional one to three hours between Europe and Asia, which increases fuel consumption, reduces aircraft availability, and complicates crew schedules.” EZJ-GB 3M Mountain EasyJet. EasyJet last week warned that volatile oil prices would pressure costs in the coming months and impact customer bookings. Danny Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said cost pressures would continue as the year progresses, adding that airlines were unlikely to lock in new fuel hedges at current high prices amid continued uncertainty. That effectively leaves cost increases built in for months to come, Hewson explained, adding that the key unknown at this point is how fuel availability and supply competition will develop. “For airlines, it’s all about seats. They want to operate full flights on both legs of a trip to offset increased costs. Margins for low-cost carriers are always tight, and fuel costs are prohibitive. That means airlines are already heavily squeezed by the energy shock. Cancellations mean friction, and friction increases costs in myriad ways.”
